If Trump pulls of a sizeable win he may have enough coattails to stage McCormick over the finish line
McCormick has some heavy baggage in Pennsylvania.
His hedge fund made some very poor decisions with the PSERS and PAHEAF portfolios.
People, stop with the history.
You say XYZ had the most accurate poll in 20XX? Why would that matter? Their turnout model happened to be right that year.
There are sample size reqmts for THAT measurement, too. A poll is going to have to be the most accurate 100s of times in order to achieve statistical significance. And of course that is not going to happen. So we have no sample size for these pollsters and therefore no one knows which is accurate and which is not.
What we have is their turnout model. You can look closely at that. If they lean heavily on some particular source of data, you can then have a look at that source and decide if it is legit.
Here are the things that are doubtful. Party affiliation screens in samples. 16 states do not register by party, so they are having to do a real-time survey of party while they are measuring candidate preference. There is NO way those results do not corrupt each other.
The whole gender identifying issue is now out there. You don’t even know if the W/M ratio is aligned with the past.
People are getting degrees in meaningless subjects and corrupting the yes or no question compared to history.
The definition of Likely Voter varies by pollster. They have different criteria.
And so, stop with the declaring one pollster better than another via history. It’s not that world anymore.