Posted on 09/28/2024 9:31:13 PM PDT by lasereye
In a tightening race for the White House, Vice President Kamala Harris' odds of winning the presidency have slightly decreased, according to the latest forecast from renowned pollster Nate Silver.
The updated projections, released Saturday morning, show Harris' Electoral College chances dipping from 58.1 percent to 57.3 percent over the past 24 hours, while former President Donald Trump's prospects improved from 41.7 percent to 42.5 percent.
This shift comes as new polls show Trump gaining ground in crucial swing states. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls, conducted from September 21 to 26 and considered the most accurate by FiveThirtyEight, Harris has 48 percent of voter support in Michigan, with Trump slightly behind at 47 percent. In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by just 2 points (49 to 47 percent).
Both results fall well within the polls' margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The surveys included 688 likely voters in Michigan and 680 in Wisconsin.
Newsweek contacted Harris and Trump's campaign via email on Saturday for comment.
Despite this tightening, Silver's analysis still gives Harris a slight edge over Trump. The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Harris leading nationally by about 3 points (48.6 to 45.7 percent), with her advantage extending to most swing states, including the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania, where she leads by 1.3 points (48.2 to 46.9 percent).
Silver's model, known as the Silver Bulletin, provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024 presidential election landscape. The forecast, which builds upon the methodology of the former FiveThirtyEight election model, integrates polling data, economic indicators, and historical trends to estimate each candidate's likelihood of victory.
As of Friday, September 27, Silver noted that Harris' national lead had grown since his previous update.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
yeah he did a couple of weeks ago. I suppose someone at the dnc yanked his chain and told him to get with the program
“Despite this tightening, Silver’s analysis still gives Harris a slight edge over Trump“
How is it that Trump is always gaining but never pulls ahead in so many of these articles? I KNEW the above line was in there upon seeing the headline. Trump’s been “tightening” for so long he ought to be strangling Harris by now.
Yeah. We moved here from CA. Quite the culture shock - in a good way - for Hubby who is a CA boy.
Walking past the campus of Boston University and Harvard University as I so often do I think that Chappaqua,NY or Palo Alto,CA would be a refreshing change for me.
In a legitimate election Harris wouldn’t be close in a s**t fight.
do you have proof the post office is opening ballots and see how people are voting??? then dumping the trump votes in the dumpster???
The postal union endorsed Harris. There is an obvious motive to do that in a pro-Trump area.
Those numbers prove Trump won in 2020. Things were way out of whack in a way that could never make sense.
If there is one intelligence operation, we are screwed, because its control will be complete, and it is simply faking the conflict. It would mean, Kamala is one of its agents, and so is Trump.
I am in a weird position where it is tough to discuss things with regular people about this. I got into politics a decade back, and the intelligence operation which runs things (the US Govt has like no power at all and is just for show), did with me what it appears it does with everyone. It had the local ground surveillance, made up of civilian informants, which it runs everywhere show up in my life to intimidate me. I rebelled, it looked at the time like just a few local tools, but I have since seen more of the operation, and it is massive, penetrates everything from Hollywood, to politics, to business, and it controls everything. Everyone you see, from Rush Limbaugh, to Bill Maher underwent what I underwent, I think, but they agreed to do what this thing told them, and it promoted them, and now they are the big voices telling you what the machine wants you thinking.
There are signs it is two cliques now battling for power. Havana syndrome is obviously the criminal clique, tyring to purge our intel, especially after it was revealed CIA leadership sabotaged the NIH Study, and the recent whistleblower documents showing they covered up vital aspects of the attacks from Congress.
Hopefully the clique fighting against them is better than the one in power now, which is just the Mafia, running our intelligence services.
You can see more at the site in my tag, if understanding this stuff interests you.
I should add that if there is one intel operation also, and Trump is not of it, he will be crushed, no contest. The only hope is Trump is being supported by a rival intel op, which has capabilities somewhere in the vicinity of the first.
Everything today is determined by the power of the intelligence operating supporting you. Nothing is organic, or an honest contest the way we were taught to expect.
yes that is true, but will the rank and file vote as the postal union says??
Did you miss the 2020 election photos this one is the same scam photos will when the voting starts.
Look at all the bogus votes that have already been found and tossed the dumpsters will soon be ablaze in the democrats revenge.
If it weren’t for public school indoctrination, Harris would only get about 35% of the vote.
Silver's numbers change every day with different polling and indicators based on the models he uses. His final forecast on November 3rd 2020 had Biden with a 89% chance of winning.
Very true. I saw it on at least 4 college football games yesterday. You’d think she was the outsider running to clean up the mess in Washington after four years of Trump. And as far as I can see nothing is being to run to counter it. A lot of hard core Trumpinistas don’t think any of that matters, but when one of the candidates is a virtual unknown and you let them paint the picture they want people to see it does. There are a lot of people who know nothing about Harris, but her people are doing a great job of telling them her ‘story’.
yes i heard about that.. the postal employees shoud have been arrested for interfering with the mail.
Agree
Thanks for the clarification.
I must qualify your statement with all due respect: Trump will be “crushed” as you say, but not if he isn’t.
I see you think clearly. and I take you at your word that you’ve done extensive investigation.
It’s quite fitting that the Age of Information has transitioned into the Age of Truth. In these times the first thing to do—as you’ve demonstrated with the intent of your investigating— is to identify the objective truth of any given situation, which will lead us to sources that can be trusted. The first mission of the “intelligence” agencies is to confound this.
A truth harmful to these agencies is that the Supreme Being who created the universe and everything in it can crush any and all intelligence or other agency he chooses. Another such truth is that this Creator is perfectly trustworthy to those who love him.
Agree 100%.
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