Posted on 09/23/2024 8:12:19 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The tropical system which would be Helene is developing in the Western Caribbean Sea. The storm is forecast to strengthen and move into the Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the Eastern GOM coast should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, and additional watches or warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow. Hurricane Hunters initiated flights to the storm system this morning.
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Correction for time. Should be EDT, not CDT...
James Spann this morning mentioned it “might” come in around Mexico Beach. I pray not as they just got the big hotel rebuilt this past year. Spann said to wait until models come in for a better idea of what this will be.
We are hoping for a few days next summer at Mexico Beach. I love it there!
Have they completely built Mexico Beach back yet?
Might, maybe, could, possibly.
Well that confirms it then!
🤦🏻♂️
Read the rest of what he said. It’s too early to know what this is and where it’s going yet, but general thought is in that direction. Spann is a wonderful weatherman and does a great job!
000
WTNT44 KNHC 231500
TCDAT4
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images,
surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the
low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest.
Nonetheless, the system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next day or two, and it is likely to bring
tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to
48 hours. Therefore, the NHC is initiating Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories for this disturbance.
The initial motion is quite uncertain given the current lack of
organization, but the best estimate is northward at about 5 kt. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or
so, with the center passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, the system is forecast to
accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the
flow between a digging deep-layer trough over the central United
States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should
bring the center of the system toward the northeastern Gulf Coast on
Thursday. The track guidance agrees reasonably well on this
scenario, and the initial NHC forecast lies near the simple and
corrected consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a
well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast
track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track
adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the
tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is
forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend
well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.
While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the
models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the
next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions
appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS
statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase
in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models
highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane
intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening
while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a
95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies
near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments
may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions of western Cuba the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast,
including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west
coast should monitor the progress of this system.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
2. The system is expected to intensify while it moves northward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be a major hurricane
when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. There is an
increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds along portions of the northern and
northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Florida west coast. Although it is too soon to
specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents in
these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Hi Beautiful, this one scares me.
Hmmmm...
Maybe. All depends on how late it turns east..
Great, Farmers just discontinued the insurance that they had previously offered in Naples. I have been scurrying around trying to find a new insurer. I got an offer on Thursday but it wasn’t the final offer, just an estimate. I’m sitting by the phone waiting to pay the first installment. Just what I don’t need is a hurricane. PS, the house just came out of probate, so it is only now that I am “the owner”.
This storm has my attention here in Tampa Bay. Once the system lifts into the GOM, we’ll have a better fix on landfall, while not much time to make final preps.
{{{{{fatima!}}}}} This one raised a few hairs on the back of my neck too...
Successive forecast models over the past 24hrs have nudged eastward. Tampa Bay on the cusp of the “Cone of Doom.” A major hurricane offshore will cause nasty surge into the Tampa Bay.
Spann said thie may make a rare move and curve back west after it hits. There is a name for this phenomenon. Here is a link to his forecast. It’s in the 1st few minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/live/E8g8T8keN9g?si=SSuCfsure5hGerq6
I feel your pain. My carrier canceled effective Nov. 1.
I think you’re fine until the storm gets a name
Yay! Let’s see how many more irreplaceable fighter jets the maroons can lose to a panhandle hurricane’s storm surge.
Is this one caused by climate change?
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