Posted on 09/06/2024 1:36:28 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn
KEY STATE POLLS: ANOTHER MESS IN THE MAKING? Who is leading the presidential race in the seven states considered most critical to victory in 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada?
The answer is we don’t really know. If you look at the RealClearPolitics average of state polls, you’ll see that Pennsylvania is exactly tied between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump ....
Obviously, all those numbers are within the polls’ margins of error. So anyone who cites them is advised to be cautious. But even more caution is called for when you look at the performance of state polls in the 2020 presidential election.
... The following numbers from the 2020 race were compiled in a new article from the liberal Brookings Institution and apply to two of the averages, RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.
In Pennsylvania in 2020, the final RealClearPolitics average had Joe Biden up by 1.2 points. The FiveThirtyEight average had Biden up by 4.7 points. The final result was Biden winning by 1.2 points — exactly what the RealClearPolitics average said. You can’t get better than that. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight was pretty far off.
...
In the end, according to the Brookings calculation, the combined RealClearPolitics average missed a state’s final result by an average of 1.1 points, while the combined FiveThirtyEight average missed the final result by 2.1 points. (After all this, you can see why this newsletter relies on the RealClearPolitics average, and not others, in analyzing various races.)
Now look at those numbers and apply them to today’s Harris-Trump race in the seven states. Almost all of the poll averages are closer than the average error even in the more accurate RealClearPolitics average and certainly in the less accurate FiveThirtyEight average. ...
[Excerpt]
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
I definitely will from here on out.
IMHO the problem with the RCP polls is that they include the MSM polls which favor the Democrats. Too many junk polls in the mix.
Getting results that close in a rigged election looks like RCP has a direct pipeline into D0MlNl0N machines
True.
There is no way to believe any polls.
A crushing blow to someone like me, a lifelong political junky from when I was a tot watching every minute of the black and white TV convention coverage, seeing JFK speak in person before he got the nomination, through getting my political science degree, reading thousands of books and the pinnacle:
addiction to Free Republic.
Good general rule. In the past two elections in almost all non-hard left states, Trump did 3% to 8% better than the poll.
Some conservatives won’t answer a poll. Some liberals lie and say “I’m a republican voting for a democrat” Both type people skew the poll in Trump’s favor
If the polls are close, Trump is ahead.
It is September 6th. We haven’t even had the first (for Kamalahoe) debate yet.
Things will crystalize after that. Beware the October Surprise (OS). If the dems are doing poorly, the OS will be more outrageous.
You’re right about the silent Trump voters.
Like counting yard signs and bumper stickers.
In Southeast Michigan where I live you can still read the “Trump” letters on the blackened, curled stickers on the bumpers of burned out shells of pickups and cars. And see the torn and burned yard signs in the vacant lots past the houses with broken windows, wet garbage thrown all over the lawn and red paint splashed all over the houses.
“Freedom” in “democracy” from the Democrats.
“If the polls are close, Trump is ahead”
That’s the take-away that I believe the author is making. Trump has a track record of outperforming the polls.
“Beware the October Surprise (OS).”
Excellent point.
Trump is + 7 in NE Pennsylvania
Trump needs to be far enough ahead that they can’t deny it.
He is not that far ahead.
The debate will be telling. Right now Harris is an avatar.
I agree. Wait a week or so and then look at the polls.
“In Pennsylvania in 2020, the final RealClearPolitics average had Joe Biden up by 1.2 points. The final result was Biden winning by 1.2 points — exactly what the RealClearPolitics average said.”
They manufactured just enough votes to get that 1.2 point spread.
Did you have to say what so many of us dont want to believe and like living in denial? Lol
Did you have to say what so many of us dont want to believe and like living in denial? Lol
Nicely said, sir.
Link?
No 3 am massive drop offs.
If they aren't in the county courthouse by 8 pm closing time, they don't get counted. They also get checked and tabulated with multiple witnesses. No mysterious pipe leaks where one party is sent home and the other keeps counting.
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