How the Russian Establishment Really Sees the War Ending: An inside look at what Russia expects—and doesn’t—in a cease-fire with Ukraine.

Foreign Policy ^ | 09/04/2024 | Anatol Lieven

[SeekAndFind]

Discussions have been happening for some time among Western policymakers, experts, and the wider public about how the war in Ukraine ought to end. I can confirm that the same type of conversations are happening in Russia.

I recently had the opportunity to speak, on the basis of confidentiality, to a wide range of members of the Russian establishment, including former diplomats, members of think tanks, academics, and businesspeople, as well as a few members of the wider public. Their ideas about the war, and the shape of its eventual ending, deserve to be better understood in the West and in Ukraine itself.

Only a small minority believed that Russia should fight for complete victory in Ukraine, including the annexation of large new areas of Ukrainian territory or the creation of a client regime in Kyiv. A large majority wanted an early cease-fire roughly along the existing battle lines. There is high confidence that the Ukrainian military will never be able to break through and reconquer significant amounts of Ukraine’s lost territories.

Most of my conversations took place before the Ukrainian invasion of the Russian province of Kursk. As far as I can make out, however, this Ukrainian success has not changed basic Russian calculations and views—not least because, at the same time, the Russian army has continued to make significant progress farther east, in the Donbas, where the Russians are closing in on the key town of Pokrovsk. “The attack on Kursk may help Ukraine eventually to get rather better terms, but nothing like a real victory,” in the words of one Russian security expert. “They will sooner or later have to withdraw from Kursk, but we will never withdraw from Crimea and the Donbas.”

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk has undoubtedly been a serious embarrassment to the Putin administration.

[Salman]

Foreign Policy Magazine. That is the official publication of the Council on Foreign Relations, the internationalist think tank. Kissinger was one.

[Stingray51]

The ending of the article: “… everyone with whom I spoke in Moscow said that Russian demands will be determined by what happens on the battlefield. If the Ukrainians can hold roughly their existing line, then it will be along this line that an eventual cease-fire will run. But if the Ukrainians collapse, then in the words of one Russian ex-soldier, “Peter and Catherine are still waiting”; and Peter the Great and Catherine the Great between them conquered the whole of what is now eastern and southern Ukraine for Russia.”

The author states that most of the conversations he reports occured prior to the Kursk cross-border attack. Which also means that conversations were prior to what appears to be a significant speeding up of Russian advances in Donbas.

[caww]

Actually it's a ‘Opinion” by Journalist Anatol Lieven . Much can be said about how he sees both sides in this war...it's a fairly good article as I see it...and his other written works as well.

[SaxxonWoods]

Haven’t seen this publication before, thanks. Seems a lot like Foreign Affairs, another mag from CFR. A family member who was a Spook used to send FA to me.

[ransomnote]

The CFR is Deep State. It seems like they want to cut the Ukraine's loss of territory - hold the line where it is now.

I've seen assertions that the Russian attitude changed dramatically after Kursk. I don't know, but I can imagine it would. Germany gave the Ukraine tanks which were used in Kursk - the idea of German tanks entering Russia would not sit well with many. Mercenary groups with the Ukrainian forces in Kursk were filmed shooting at Russian civilians, ambulances and firetrucks. The areas where the Ukrainians are in and around Kursk have been evacuated - thousands of residents displaced. There have been attempts for the Ukrainians to reach or attack the nuclear power plant. The Ukraine is now bragging that they have made some of their drones 'flame throwers' - if used in citizen areas, that will further deplete the public's patience.

https://www.cfr.org/funding#chapter-title-0-2

[Rockingham]

The article is limited in perspective. There is no discussion of sanctions relief for Russia, the $300 billion in seized Russia assets, the Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia, and EU membership and guarantees for Ukraine’s independence.

[Chewbarkah]

Foreign Policy magazine is not published by the CFR. It is owned by the FP Group, a division of Graham Holdings Company (formerly The Washington Post Company). It was founded by Samuel P. Huntington.

Similar but different establishment mouthpiece from Foreign Affairs, the CFR’s journal.

[Jumper]

This guy is delusional and thinks Ukrsine has 6-12 years to wait out Putin for better terms for Ukraine and NATO membership.

Meanwhile today Russian MOD announced Drone production which started at 1000 daily in July has now reach 4000 drones daily production.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Meanwhile today Russian MOD announced Drone production which started at 1000 daily in July has now reach 4000 drones daily production.

Ok, On the other hand, Ukraine is producing hundreds of thousands of drones a month.

From January to February 2024, the Deputy Minister of Strategic Industries claimed that FPV production totalled a staggering 200,000. To avoid targeting by Russian strikes, a small army of dispersed volunteers, supported through online resources such as Telegram channels and even instructional courses on Zoom, is producing drones from small and discreet warehouses, converted barns, cellars, or even their living rooms.

See here:

https://www.airforce-technology.com/analyst-comment/ukraines-drone-production-ramps-up/

[canuck_conservative]

And yet Russia, a nuclear superpower, still can’t win against a country 1/20th its size.

That’s pathetic.

[Jumper]

Ukraine has held this advantage and pioneered drone warfare. However, the fact that Russia has only started to utilize this technology is showing up on the battlefield and is having a devasting effect on Ukrainian vehicle disposition.

The issue of civilians building drones in apartments stripes them of any protections becasue they become essentially factory workers, and this endangers all the residents in a housing complex or apartment building. Ukraine was proud to tell the world and Russia that they have turned their civilian housing into military arms production facilities.

Russia has only been building drones since mid-July in a single factory which took several years to stand up.

[Jumper]

The United States and 40 nations tried to overthrow Putin in Russia thru color revolution and wars. Everything is pointing to Russia destroying the EUropean economy, a hunk of their political class, and Ukriane.

Russia has even marshalled together Brics which will eventually split the world into two separate economic and political zones.

This war is going to become a text book example on how Great Powers were defeated by one formerly bankrupted country, e.g., Russia.

The LGBT globalist crowd has turned the entire world against the Western elites.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Russia has only been building drones since mid-July in a single factory which took several years to stand up.

I’ve been hearing about this or that milestone from Russia that was supposed to have turned the tide of the war for over a year or more. This is another one of those “milestones” added to the others.

Wake me up when something significant happens and Russia really takes over Ukraine. I held my breath when I heard Douglas MacGregor proclaim an imminent Russian Victoria too many times. I’m not going to do it again.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: the LGBT globalist crowd has turned the entire world against the Western elites.

Interestingly, Putin just endorsed Kamala Harris for President, one of the most pro-LGBTQ candidates ever.

[canuck_conservative]

This war is going to become a text book example on how Great Powers were defeated by one formerly bankrupted country, e.g., Russia

That's got to be one of the dumbest comments ever posted on FR.

Noted, for future embarrassment.

[Jumper]

The entire West could not defeat Russia in Ukraine.

Conversely, the West tries to invade Russia with a proxy that puts NATO and the US in the crosshairs.

Globalism and American Marxism met its defeat in Ukraine.

Ukraine divided the world and Brics is the alternative to a bankrupt financially and moarely West, suffering defeat by Russia.

The Ukraine conflict’s major outcome is that the west is in decline, and the Brics nstions ascendant.

Obama and Biden broke America. Russia has broke globalism from the DNC-RINO/EU lead nexus.

[Jumper]

Perversity. Derveristy, Stupidy. Of course he would say that. Anyone who fears a strong America would choose her.

[canuck_conservative]

the west is in decline, and the Brics nstions ascendant

You're insane