Why RFK Jr Being Kicked Off the Ballot is Bad News For Kamala Harris

newsweek ^ | Aug 13, 2024 | Sean O'Driscoll

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

A fight by Joe Biden allies to keep Robert F. Kennedy Jr. off the ballot could backfire on the Democratic presidential campaign by delivering more votes for Republican Donald Trump than Kamala Harris, according to some poll indications.

On Monday, a New York judge removed Kennedy from the New York ballot, saying this New York address is "a scam." The lawsuit was organized by Clear Choice, a Democrat-aligned political action committee formed by supporters of President Biden's bid for a second term in the White House.

Similar rulings to oust RFK could be won in 18 states including multiple battleground states, but this could prove damaging for Harris, now endorsed by Biden as his replacement presidential election candidate. One expert told Newsweek that Trump would benefit more than Harris if Kennedy is kept off the ballot in more of these states.

State and national polls show that when third party candidates are included, Kennedy Jr. is taking more votes from Trump than Kamala Harris three months ahead of the election.

"Trump has a real incentive to get Kennedy out of the race," David B. Cohen, Professor of Political Science at the University of Akron in Ohio told Newsweek.

[Fledermaus]

All total lies.

Wake up people. Dems lie about everything. Literally everything.

[Political Junkie Too]

Does "the same thing" mean the title or my first post?

Both.

The article discusses the observed trend that when the polls ask both the Trump-Harris question AND the full field question, President Trump's result goes down more than Harris' on the full-field result.

You used the phrase "RFK's belief that he would get more Trump voters than Kamala voters." I'm showing actual polling data that suggests that it is more than a "belief," it is an observable trend from multiple polls over several weeks.

Here is the most recent post of mine from 8/4/24 analyzing 28 polls from 7/25 to 8/4 showing the impact of Kennedy on the polling results. I'm sure I can add several more polls to that list from the last 10 days.

For grins, here is the first post of mine from 7/31/24 with a much smaller number of polls that began to show the trend. I reposted the 7/31/24 analysis to another thread later that day. Ironically, you were the second-to-last poster to that thread. 😉

-PJ

[Bob Wills is still the king]

RFK Jr. draws more from Trump than from Democrats, primarily because the entire Kennedy family has disowned him as a whack job.

A Trump supporter who knows RFK’s political positions would never vote for him, and doing so harms the Trump campaign.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Will all due respect, I am still not convinced we will have sane polling until some time in September, and not the first week. If you can "read between the lines" that's great. You may be right, but for me, still too much chaos.

Remember, the early polls showing Kasich winning in 2016 turned out to be worthless because voters thought of him as a "generic republican." I.e. Kamala is still a "generic Dem" and they are trying to hide her as long as possible.

And I am still not sure how many competitive states' ballots will keep RFK.

[Bratch]

RFK Jr Disqualified From New York Ballot

August 14, 2024 | Sundance 

I am going to outline something that might make a few people uncomfortable.

You may have recently read about RFK Jr being disqualified from the ballot in New York state.

(Via Fox News) – […] New York Justice Christina L. Ryba concluded in a 34-page decision that the rented bedroom Kennedy, 70, claimed as his residence in the state wasn’t a “bona fide and legitimate residence, but merely a ‘sham’ address that he assumed for the purpose of maintaining his voter registration” and furthering his political candidacy.

Ryba wrote in the decision that Kennedy’s designation of 84 Croton Lake Road in Westchester County as his place of residence “was a false statement requiring invalidation of the petition.” (SOURCE)

This represents yet another apparent fail (set back) by the Kennedy campaign that positions himself for sympathy.  There is a pattern here inside the RFK Jr campaign structure and I have no more tongue to bite.

Here’s the cut to the chase aspect. 

• Blue states will block ballot access for RFK Jr.,
• Red states will work earnestly to keep ballot access for RFK Jr.

Within the party club system, as portrayed by the media apparatus they fund, this dynamic is being (and will be) sold as dishonorable, cheating Democrat states, and honorable, honest Republican states.  However, that’s the illusion within the fraud that few can see.

• Blue states blocking and Red states supporting RFK Jr is part of one UniParty continuum to elevate Harris and carve up Trump. 
• Ballot access within red states allows maximum damage by RFK Jr in the November election. 

That’s the feature, not the flaw.

Everything this guy does and says glows brightly.  On the NY ballot issue RFK Jr is a Kennedy, these are not political novices or stupid people.  The Kennedy’s are to politics what the Rothchilds are to finance.  When they fail, it is by design.  When they whine it is by design.  When they draw attention to an issue, there is a purpose for it.

The Blue States will block him.

The Red States will support him.

The UniParty goal is to use RFK JR to maximize damage to Trump. RFK JR is willfully playing a role.  The target IC audience is the alligator emoji people (DeSantis supporters).

[SEE HERE – CITATION]

Sometimes we need reminders.  I had this on an index card, taped to my mirror where I brush my teeth – as a reminder.

THERE ARE TRILLIONS AT STAKE!

• Democrats want power, Republicans want money.
• The policy of Dems drives donor activity.
• The donor activity of the GOP drives their policy.
  • The DONOR ACTIVITY is what controls the republican politicians.

• Republicans hate us.  Republicans hate inconveniences. Republicans hate voters. Republicans love money.

Donald Trump is not a Republican.

That is the party truism that existed when the Tea Party first started to confront the professional republican wing of the RNC.  This is the same internal battle that exists today.  This foundational ideological issue is deep within the entrenched party system operations.

President Trump and a handful of MAGA allies, the Rebel Alliance, are confronting it.  However, this battle to control the reality of our historic abuse is brutal.

The professionally republican people who are skilled in the dark arts always work to use our virtue as a weapon, remember that.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Maybe these are obvious, but I will comment anyway. Trump would like everybody to:

1. Trust government (but impossible under this regime)
2. Own a home
3. Keep Constitutional rights
4. Afford childcare (but not under an irresponsible Gov program)
5. Have clean air, water, soil. etc., but without leftist dogma

[aspasia]

When they fail, it is by design. When they whine it is by design. When they draw attention to an issue, there is a purpose for it.

Fake Calvinism¹⁰

[A strike]

Sean O’Driscoll:
“...”David B. Cohen, Professor of political Science at the University of Akron “,
a nobody I found to fill in my story.

But hey, he’s as good as the rest of my bullScheiff right?

[Political Junkie Too]

Updating my "Kennedy impact on Trump" polling list.

Right now, the polls are showing that RFK, Jr. is hurting President Trump more than Kamala Harris.

According to 47 polls that ask both the head-to-head and the full-lineup preferences:

• 24 have Trump losing more votes than Harris
• 12 have Harris losing more votes than Trump
• 9 have both losing the same number of votes
• 2 have neither losing any votes

---

The Details:

1. Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 50 - Trump: 47
   • Harris: 48 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

2. Pennsylvania (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 49 - Trump: 48
   • Harris: 48 (-1) - Trump: 43 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

3. Wisconsin (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 49 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 48 (-1) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

4. North Carolina (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 48 - Trump: 47
   • Harris: 46 (-2) - Trump: 44 (-3) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

5. Nevada (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 45 - Trump: 48
   • Harris: 42 (-3) - Trump: 47 (-1) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

6. Michigan (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 49 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 46 (-3) - Trump: 44 (-2) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

7. Georgia (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 48 - Trump: 48
   • Harris: 46 (0) - Trump: 46 (0) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

8. Arizona (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 48 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 46 (-2) - Trump: 42 (-3) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

9. Wisconsin (New York Times/Siena 8/10/24)
   • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 49 (-1) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

10. Michigan (New York Times/Siena 8/10/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 48 (-2) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

11. Pennsylvania (New York Times/Siena 8/10/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 46 (-4) - Trump: 44 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

12. National (Rasmussen Reports 8/8/24)
    • Harris: 44 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 44 (0) - Trump: 49 (0) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

13. Georgia (Fabrizio/Anzalone 8/8/24)
    • Harris: 48 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-4) - Trump: 46 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 2

14. Montana (The Hill/Emerson 8/8/24)
    • Harris: 55 - Trump: 40
    • Harris: 54 (-1) - Trump: 39 (-1) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 0 - West: 0

15. National (Marquette 8/7/24)
    • Harris: 52 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 47 (-5) - Trump: 41 (-7) - Kennedy: 9 - Stein: 2 - West: 1

16. Wisconsin (Marquette 8/7/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 46 (-4) - Trump: 45 (-1) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

17. National (NPR/PBS/Marist 8/6/24)
    • Harris: 51 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 48 (-3) - Trump: 45 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

18. New York (Siena 8/6/24)
    • Harris: 53 - Trump: 39
    • Harris: 49 (-4) - Trump: 37 (-2) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 2 - West: 1

19. National (I&I/TIPP 8/5/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 45
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 42 (-3) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

20. National (CBS News/YouGov 8/4/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 49 (-1) - Trump: 47 (-2) - Kennedy: 2 - Stein: 0 - West: 0

21. National (Rasmussen Reports 8/1/24)
    • Harris: 44 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 45 (+1) - Trump: 46 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

22. Ohio (Fabrizio/Anzalone 8/1/24)
    • Harris: 42 - Trump: 52
    • Harris: 39 (-3) - Trump: 48 (-4) - Kennedy: 9 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

23. New Hampshire (WHDH-TV/Emerson 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 48 (-2) - Trump: 41 (-5) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

24. Arizona (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 48 (-1) - Trump: 44 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

25. Georgia (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 45 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

26. Michigan (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 53 - Trump: 42
    • Harris: 51 (-2) - Trump: 39 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

27. Nevada (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 45
    • Harris: 43 (-4) - Trump: 43 (-2) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

28. North Carolina (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

29. Pennsylvania (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 50
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 46 (-4) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

30. Wisconsin (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 44 (-5) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

31. Oregon (Hoffman Research 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 44
    • Harris: 45 (-4) - Trump: 40 (-4) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

32. National (Harvard-Harris 7/30/24)
    • Harris: 48 - Trump: 52
    • Harris: 43 (-5) - Trump: 47 (-5) - Kennedy: 8 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

33. Wisconsin (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 50
    • Harris: 46 (-3) - Trump: 46 (-4) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

34. Michigan (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 43 (-6) - Trump: 45 (-4) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

35. Pennsylvania (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 45 (-4) - Trump: 43 (-6) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

36. Minnesota (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 52 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 47 (-4) - Trump: 41 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

37. National (Wall Street Journal 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 45 (-2) - Trump: 44 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

38. National (Forbes/HarrisX 7/26/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 51
    • Harris: 44 (-5) - Trump: 44 (-7) - Kennedy: 10 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

39. National (New York Times/Siena 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-3) - Trump: 43 (-5) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

40. Arizona (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 44 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 40 (-4) - Trump: 48 (-1) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

41. Georgia (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 43 (-3) - Trump: 46 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

42. Michigan (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 45 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 44 (-1) - Trump: 44 (-2) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

43. Pennsylvania (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 46 (-2) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

44. Wisconsin (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 45 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

45. New Hampshire (Univ New Hampshire 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 53 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 49 (-4) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: 0

46. Maine (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 54 - Trump: 45
    • Harris: 48 (-4) - Trump: 40 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

47. National (Rasmussen Reports 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 43 - Trump: 50
    • Harris: 42 (-1) - Trump: 49 (-1) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

---

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

I am still not convinced we will have sane polling until some time in September

I share your skepticism; I'm just going where the data is taking me at this point in time.

It's better to understand it than to ignore it or to just dismiss it out of hand.

I do look for internally inconsistent polls when the topline is totally out of whack with the details. Take a look at this poll for an example of what I mean. Scroll down to my post #93 to see why this poll was skewed. This is definitely what I would call an "insane" poll.

-PJ

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Good point! This is not your first rodeo.

The Trump-Musk call had a very large audience. Dems already filed a complaint with the FEC. I expect it to be a dud.

[Bob Wills is still the king]

Nobody thinks he’s like his father, which is why his family and Democrats in general have consistently opposed him. The poll indications that he takes more voters from Trump than Harris aren’t surprising.

Remember that John Kennedy is a Republican Senator from Louisiana. Republicans had no problem electing him.

[FenwickBabbitt]

Thank you for this chart. I noticed a while back that with the Dems’ candidate switch, it looked like Kennedy was hurting us now more than them. I think the people who still think Kennedy being in the race is a good thing for us are refusing to look at the evidence. Getting back left-of-center Kennedy voters appears to be a major source of her recent increase in the polls.

A lot of left-wing and moderate Kennedy voters find Kamala more acceptable than they found Biden. What Trump needs to do is find a way of convincing these people (and everyone else) that Kamala is even less acceptable than Biden—or better yet promise Kennedy a place in his administration and get him onboard.

[Leep]

But might a rfk jr supporter vote for Trump?