[Political Junkie Too]

Updating my "Kennedy impact on Trump" polling list.

Right now, the polls are showing that RFK, Jr. is hurting President Trump more than Kamala Harris.

According to 47 polls that ask both the head-to-head and the full-lineup preferences:

• 24 have Trump losing more votes than Harris
• 12 have Harris losing more votes than Trump
• 9 have both losing the same number of votes
• 2 have neither losing any votes

---

The Details:

1. Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 50 - Trump: 47
   • Harris: 48 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

2. Pennsylvania (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 49 - Trump: 48
   • Harris: 48 (-1) - Trump: 43 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

3. Wisconsin (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 49 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 48 (-1) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

4. North Carolina (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 48 - Trump: 47
   • Harris: 46 (-2) - Trump: 44 (-3) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

5. Nevada (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 45 - Trump: 48
   • Harris: 42 (-3) - Trump: 47 (-1) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

6. Michigan (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 49 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 46 (-3) - Trump: 44 (-2) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

7. Georgia (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 48 - Trump: 48
   • Harris: 46 (0) - Trump: 46 (0) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

8. Arizona (Cook Political Report 8/14/24)
   • Harris: 48 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 46 (-2) - Trump: 42 (-3) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

9. Wisconsin (New York Times/Siena 8/10/24)
   • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
   • Harris: 49 (-1) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

10. Michigan (New York Times/Siena 8/10/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 48 (-2) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

11. Pennsylvania (New York Times/Siena 8/10/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 46 (-4) - Trump: 44 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

12. National (Rasmussen Reports 8/8/24)
    • Harris: 44 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 44 (0) - Trump: 49 (0) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 0 - West: 1

13. Georgia (Fabrizio/Anzalone 8/8/24)
    • Harris: 48 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-4) - Trump: 46 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 2

14. Montana (The Hill/Emerson 8/8/24)
    • Harris: 55 - Trump: 40
    • Harris: 54 (-1) - Trump: 39 (-1) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 0 - West: 0

15. National (Marquette 8/7/24)
    • Harris: 52 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 47 (-5) - Trump: 41 (-7) - Kennedy: 9 - Stein: 2 - West: 1

16. Wisconsin (Marquette 8/7/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 46 (-4) - Trump: 45 (-1) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

17. National (NPR/PBS/Marist 8/6/24)
    • Harris: 51 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 48 (-3) - Trump: 45 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

18. New York (Siena 8/6/24)
    • Harris: 53 - Trump: 39
    • Harris: 49 (-4) - Trump: 37 (-2) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 2 - West: 1

19. National (I&I/TIPP 8/5/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 45
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 42 (-3) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

20. National (CBS News/YouGov 8/4/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 49 (-1) - Trump: 47 (-2) - Kennedy: 2 - Stein: 0 - West: 0

21. National (Rasmussen Reports 8/1/24)
    • Harris: 44 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 45 (+1) - Trump: 46 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

22. Ohio (Fabrizio/Anzalone 8/1/24)
    • Harris: 42 - Trump: 52
    • Harris: 39 (-3) - Trump: 48 (-4) - Kennedy: 9 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

23. New Hampshire (WHDH-TV/Emerson 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 50 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 48 (-2) - Trump: 41 (-5) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

24. Arizona (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 48 (-1) - Trump: 44 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

25. Georgia (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 45 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

26. Michigan (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 53 - Trump: 42
    • Harris: 51 (-2) - Trump: 39 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

27. Nevada (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 45
    • Harris: 43 (-4) - Trump: 43 (-2) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

28. North Carolina (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-3) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

29. Pennsylvania (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 50
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 46 (-4) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

30. Wisconsin (Bloomberg/Morning Consult 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 44 (-5) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 6 - Stein: 0 - West: N/A

31. Oregon (Hoffman Research 7/31/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 44
    • Harris: 45 (-4) - Trump: 40 (-4) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

32. National (Harvard-Harris 7/30/24)
    • Harris: 48 - Trump: 52
    • Harris: 43 (-5) - Trump: 47 (-5) - Kennedy: 8 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

33. Wisconsin (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 50
    • Harris: 46 (-3) - Trump: 46 (-4) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

34. Michigan (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 43 (-6) - Trump: 45 (-4) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

35. Pennsylvania (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 45 (-4) - Trump: 43 (-6) - Kennedy: 7 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

36. Minnesota (Fox News 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 52 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 47 (-4) - Trump: 41 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

37. National (Wall Street Journal 7/27/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 45 (-2) - Trump: 44 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

38. National (Forbes/HarrisX 7/26/24)
    • Harris: 49 - Trump: 51
    • Harris: 44 (-5) - Trump: 44 (-7) - Kennedy: 10 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

39. National (New York Times/Siena 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-3) - Trump: 43 (-5) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

40. Arizona (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 44 - Trump: 49
    • Harris: 40 (-4) - Trump: 48 (-1) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

41. Georgia (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 43 (-3) - Trump: 46 (-2) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

42. Michigan (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 45 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 44 (-1) - Trump: 44 (-2) - Kennedy: 5 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

43. Pennsylvania (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 46 - Trump: 48
    • Harris: 44 (-2) - Trump: 46 (-2) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

44. Wisconsin (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 47 - Trump: 47
    • Harris: 45 (-2) - Trump: 45 (-2) - Kennedy: 3 - Stein: 1 - West: N/A

45. New Hampshire (Univ New Hampshire 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 53 - Trump: 46
    • Harris: 49 (-4) - Trump: 43 (-3) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 0 - West: 0

46. Maine (The Hill/Emerson 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 54 - Trump: 45
    • Harris: 48 (-4) - Trump: 40 (-5) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 1

47. National (Rasmussen Reports 7/25/24)
    • Harris: 43 - Trump: 50
    • Harris: 42 (-1) - Trump: 49 (-1) - Kennedy: 4 - Stein: 1 - West: 0

---

-PJ

[FenwickBabbitt]

Thank you for this chart. I noticed a while back that with the Dems’ candidate switch, it looked like Kennedy was hurting us now more than them. I think the people who still think Kennedy being in the race is a good thing for us are refusing to look at the evidence. Getting back left-of-center Kennedy voters appears to be a major source of her recent increase in the polls.

A lot of left-wing and moderate Kennedy voters find Kamala more acceptable than they found Biden. What Trump needs to do is find a way of convincing these people (and everyone else) that Kamala is even less acceptable than Biden—or better yet promise Kennedy a place in his administration and get him onboard.