Posted on 08/13/2024 8:27:31 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Kamala Harris's honeymoon bounce in the polls has Democrats excited for the first time in a long time in this election. Even with that surge of enthusiasm, she's still only managing to take a small lead within the margin of error in the RealClearPolitics average. Nevertheless, her position appears to be much stronger than Joe Biden's but, CNN's Harry Enten is warning them that Harris doesn't have the election in the bag — not by a long shot.
To explain why, he looked at battleground state polling in the previous two election cycles to see how far off they were from the results.
“We put out those poll numbers yesterday, you know, New York Times-Siena College, we covered them. I showed you the Ipsos polling, all of which showed Kamala Harris with clear momentum and enthusiasm potentially on her side. But I just want to take a step back and sort of point out we’ve kind of been here before,” he began.
"So August 13, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin?" he continued. "And this is in 2016 and 2020. [...] Take a look here in 2016, the average poll in those states that I mentioned — those Great Lakes battleground states — Trump was underestimated by 9 points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn't a one-off. Look at this.
He was underestimated by 5 points on average. And, of course, Kamala Harris' advantage in those New York Times Siena College polls was 4 points in each of these key battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin."
As such, Enten told Harris supporters they shouldn't be celebrating right now.win."
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Jeeze, someone at CNN finally grabbed a clue? It seems they do nothing but gaslight everyone anymore.
Glad to hear this from Enten himself. A crucial point about systematic bias in polls.
but they got mail-in ballots, dawg. gnomesayin?
If the past polling error patterns hold again, then Trump is ahead. Also Kamala is said to be getting a “honeymoon” polling bump. If that fades even a little then Trump would be ahead by even more - based on the past polling discrepancies.
The majority of those listening to trump speak last night with musk was 35 yrs old and younger that is a group that is a group that trump can bring in even that charlamayne the god person said he was impressed with what he heard last night..trump needs to do this weekly stay on message and talk about the issues and he can win.
The ole dead-cat-bounce.
After all the hoopla, she is still the same candidate who couldn’t even draw flies in the Dem 2020 election cycle.
Her staff have already been talking about remaking/re-introducing her. That is never a good sign for a political candidate.
I was listening to CNN a bit ago and they were actually doing some hard reporting on Hunter and Joe Biden. Surprised.
It all sounds like BS and propaganda.
They’re probably going to try to get rid of Biden so they can install their two communist dipshits before the election.
In editorial cartoons the red stuff isn’t real.
For what it’s worth.
The one who actually bled in real life was Trump at Butler, PA. Thankfully not an inch to the side of his ear.
The other side is not at all shy about their evil.
May God continue to protect Donald Trump and his supporters.
The polling bump is not derived from anyone changing their minds, other than the pollsters who have decided that enthusiasm and joy will be good justification to change their turnout model. The responses on the phone are the same. More of them from particular subgroups are now going to get in the counting pool.
But . . . they are making more mistake than I suspect they have realized, because of VBM. Enthusiasm could turn into some extra votes in the old days because more people would get in their cars and go vote. But everyone can do that from home, now. Particularly Dems. There is no real reason to expand the Dem turnout in the models because of joy. They were going to fill out their ballots for Biden and have them picked up before. No difference.
As far as Trump outperforming the polls, note this generally only happens in some states. It’s not a universal thing to depend on.
If you want to help, call the local RNC and volunteer to go to nursing homes to help residents fill out ballots.
No one has a lead. There is no way to know what the turnout will be for the various subgroups. Pollsters guess at this and their guess can move the needle.
So ignore leads. Try to find polls with constant models and look for change in them. There is damn little.
The very best example is on the RCP list. CBSNews. Click it and track down its internals. It went from T+1 to H+2 July to Aug. But when you find the last paragraph of the poll they explicitly say in text “We are oversampling blacks”. Doing so (with H getting 75/25 black vote) moved the needle a few %. BTW, they did not say how much oversampling they did. But it was oversampling with respect to the previous month’s numbers — that is, their turnout model.
They had to change it to get a Harris lead.
I figure that Harris might be replacing Biden before the convention or as an October surprise.
Yep , reminds me how many times Hillary was reintroduced to the American people.
And in spite of numerous reintroductions, Hillary still did not win her election.
p
The 2020 polling average versus the actual vote results does provide us with what is likely to happen in 2024. Covid was definitely a factor in 2020. There was definitely a lot of vote by mail in 2020 and I expect that to happen in 2024. For Michigan, 538’s polling average was Biden 49.8% and Trump 42.2%. The actual 2020 Michigan results were Biden 50.6% and Trump 47.84%. 538’s polling average for Michigan on August 13, 2024 is Harris 46.2% and Trump 42.8%. So I think the final 2024 Michigan results are Trump 48.4% and Harris 47%. Trump can still win Michigan.
For Wisconsin, 538’s polling average on August 13, 2020 was Biden 49.9% Trump 42.8%. The final results for Wisconsin in 2020 was Biden 49.45% and Trump 48.82%. 538’s polling average for August 13, 2024 is Harris 47.3% and Trump 44.1%. Trump could beat Harris in Wisconsin 50% to 47%.
538’s polling average for Pennsylvania on August 13, 2020 was Biden 50.1% Trump 43.8%. The actual 2020 Michigan election results were Biden 50% Trump 48.8%. 538’s polling average for Pennsylvania on August 13, 2024 was Harris 45.5% Trump 44.6%. So Trump could beat Harris 49.6% to 45.4%.
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