Posted on 07/03/2024 10:54:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Well, that didn't take long.
Even yesterday, the smart money was betting that Joe Biden would be the presidential nominee.
No longer.
The New York Times has published a story that Joe Biden has, for the first time, conceded that he may not be the best candidate to take on Donald Trump. This story has been vociferously denied by the White House, raising questions about its credibility.
I have my doubts that Biden actually said that, at least so directly. There are so many machinations and Democrats are so committed to using hoaxes to get their way that it is equally likely that somebody who wants Biden out leaked this.
Washington always works that way, and Democrats are such liars that it comes naturally to them. It makes a great story, could be true, but it smells a bit off. I will believe it when I see it.
Still, you can't ignore--and you shouldn't take as gospel--the betting odds. People are putting their money where their mouth is, in this case literally, which tends to make the prediction markets a bit more reliable than polls.
Answering a pollster with wishcasting costs you nothing. Placing a bet hits you in the wallet.
Ed makes a great point:
The White House called this report "absolutely false," but apparently the same ally told CNN the same thing. As for it being false, let's not forget that White House called Biden videos "cheap fakes" too. It's tough to believe that Biden would refuse to even consider a withdrawal, especially with all of the criticism coming from fellow Democrats, including a handful who have called for Biden to step aside.
Of course, "go well" is a very flexible term. If Biden can manage to stay awake long enough for ABC to edit him into coherence, and if Jill Biden can escort him off the stages this week after reading off teleprompters, that might be enough to give the Bidens a claim of vindication for staying the course.
Would that be enough for the Democrat base? According to CNN's Harry Enten, Democrat voters seem committed to the bit. Two-thirds of them insist on keeping Biden in place on the ticket, in the most recent Reuters poll. That's not going to put much pressure on party leaders that fear a cognitive-decline reaper in November up and down the ballot, he explains:
A big issue with getting Biden out? Democrats don't want Biden to leave the race. The voters who could pressure their elected leaders want Biden to stay in.
The data right now don't look like Truman (52) or Johnson (68). They look a lot more like Bush (92), who stayed in & lost pic.twitter.com/HxmyO57fQP— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 3, 2024
Biden is the biggest story going right now, so it's natural that everybody has an opinion and wants to give it. This is in the Democrats' world a political earthquake, and everybody is talking about how many casualties there are and whether their loved one--in this case Biden--will pull through after being (mortally?) injured.
So people's ability to make informed predictions is hampered even more than normal, and most people's predictions are terrible even in normal times. When you are predicting political events, you are almost mind-reading.
Ask Democrats about how good their predictions were about the effects of Trump's legal problems. Not so good.
Still, not only are we all glued to our screens seeking data, but the collapse in confidence is a real news story. No doubt these predictions also change the odds. Democrats see the collapse in confidence and it reinforces their own doubts about the president's chances this November.
Kamali as the nominee = A fait accompli
Did Biden concede anything?
Or did the NYT invent it to pressure Biden into leaving?
The pop up ads as I signed on had a click bait “Who Would Be Kamala Harris’ VP. Here Are Top Contenders.”
She should promise to choose only a black woman. Worked great for Joe.
But for “ticket balance” she should take an intelligent, serious, competent person——to be her opposite with voters.
LOL they will have to vote for this or Trump
Sound up
Kamala Harris loves to laugh
https://rumble.com/v55bn7x-kamala-harris-loves-to-laugh.html
DC is really buzzed over this one. It makes for delightful entertainment.
“I have my doubts that Biden actually said that, at least so directly.”
I suspect that someone is spinning something he said to be unrecognizable to what he actually said.
The problem for democrats is the only people Biden listens too is Jill and Hunter and they are telling him to stay in. Also, he has 3,900 of the 4,200 dem delegates already locked down and they are pledged by DNC rules to vote for him on the first ballot at the convention. So, if he digs in his heels and refuses to drop out, he can likely steamroll himself to the nomination Obama, Newsom, Hillary and anybody else be damned.
Can you say “Madam President Harris”?
I knew you could.......................
Kamala is yet another incompetent!
Phooey!
Rumors are all over the board today. Now Biden allegedly said in a campaign call that he’s staying in.
Andrew Yang needs to come back and toss his hat in the ring.
Huge move in the last 8hrs.
Harris into 5/2 fr 7/1
Biden out to 9/1 from 9/2.
President Trump remained unchanged at $1.70 to win $1.00.
In other words, no.
Harris / Buttigieg 2024
Heels UP / Bend Over 2024
LMAO
Her odds now crashing
Elena Schneider
@ec_schneider
Follow
President Biden on campaign call that just wrapped, per person on the call:
“Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
Hang on Sleepy, Sleepy hang on! 🎶
You’re right in that Biden has way more than enough delegates to win.
But the DNC has a card to play if Biden refuses to drop out. They could change the rules so that delegates are not forced to vote for their pledged candidates on the first round.
That would be wildly undemocratic. And Biden’s remaining supporters would scream bloody murder. But it could work.
word salad for everyone!!
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