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New Betting Odds Have Kamala Harris Ahead of Biden to Be Dem Nominee
Townhall ^ | 07/03/2024 | David Strom

Posted on 07/03/2024 10:54:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Well, that didn't take long.

Even yesterday, the smart money was betting that Joe Biden would be the presidential nominee.

No longer.

The New York Times has published a story that Joe Biden has, for the first time, conceded that he may not be the best candidate to take on Donald Trump. This story has been vociferously denied by the White House, raising questions about its credibility. 

I have my doubts that Biden actually said that, at least so directly. There are so many machinations and Democrats are so committed to using hoaxes to get their way that it is equally likely that somebody who wants Biden out leaked this. 

Washington always works that way, and Democrats are such liars that it comes naturally to them. It makes a great story, could be true, but it smells a bit off. I will believe it when I see it. 

Still, you can't ignore--and you shouldn't take as gospel--the betting odds. People are putting their money where their mouth is, in this case literally, which tends to make the prediction markets a bit more reliable than polls. 

Answering a pollster with wishcasting costs you nothing. Placing a bet hits you in the wallet. 

Ed makes a great point:

The White House called this report "absolutely false," but apparently the same ally told CNN the same thing. As for it being false, let's not forget that White House called Biden videos "cheap fakes" too. It's tough to believe that Biden would refuse to even consider a withdrawal, especially with all of the criticism coming from fellow Democrats, including a handful who have called for Biden to step aside.

Of course, "go well" is a very flexible term. If Biden can manage to stay awake long enough for ABC to edit him into coherence, and if Jill Biden can escort him off the stages this week after reading off teleprompters, that might be enough to give the Bidens a claim of vindication for staying the course.

Would that be enough for the Democrat base? According to CNN's Harry Enten, Democrat voters seem committed to the bit.  Two-thirds of them insist on keeping Biden in place on the ticket, in the most recent Reuters poll. That's not going to put much pressure on party leaders that fear a cognitive-decline reaper in November up and down the ballot, he explains:

Biden is the biggest story going right now, so it's natural that everybody has an opinion and wants to give it. This is in the Democrats' world a political earthquake, and everybody is talking about how many casualties there are and whether their loved one--in this case Biden--will pull through after being (mortally?) injured. 

So people's ability to make informed predictions is hampered even more than normal, and most people's predictions are terrible even in normal times. When you are predicting political events, you are almost mind-reading. 

Ask Democrats about how good their predictions were about the effects of Trump's legal problems. Not so good. 

Still, not only are we all glued to our screens seeking data, but the collapse in confidence is a real news story. No doubt these predictions also change the odds. Democrats see the collapse in confidence and it reinforces their own doubts about the president's chances this November. 



TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2024; democrats; kamalaharris; nominee
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1 posted on 07/03/2024 10:54:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Kamali as the nominee = A fait accompli


2 posted on 07/03/2024 10:55:29 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: SeekAndFind
The New York Times has published a story that Joe Biden has, for the first time, conceded that...

Did Biden concede anything?

Or did the NYT invent it to pressure Biden into leaving?

3 posted on 07/03/2024 10:57:06 AM PDT by Angelino97
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To: SeekAndFind

The pop up ads as I signed on had a click bait “Who Would Be Kamala Harris’ VP. Here Are Top Contenders.”

She should promise to choose only a black woman. Worked great for Joe.

But for “ticket balance” she should take an intelligent, serious, competent person——to be her opposite with voters.


4 posted on 07/03/2024 10:58:26 AM PDT by frank ballenger (There's a battle outside and it's raging. It'll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls.)
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To: SeekAndFind

LOL they will have to vote for this or Trump

Sound up
Kamala Harris loves to laugh

https://rumble.com/v55bn7x-kamala-harris-loves-to-laugh.html


5 posted on 07/03/2024 10:58:40 AM PDT by janetjanet998 (Legacy media including youtube are the enemy of the people and must die)
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To: 1Old Pro
Kamala Harris Ineligible Website (downloadable PDF available via link)
6 posted on 07/03/2024 10:59:03 AM PDT by KamalaKancel
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To: SeekAndFind

DC is really buzzed over this one. It makes for delightful entertainment.


7 posted on 07/03/2024 10:59:09 AM PDT by ComputerGuy (Heavily-medicated for your protection)
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To: SeekAndFind

“I have my doubts that Biden actually said that, at least so directly.”

I suspect that someone is spinning something he said to be unrecognizable to what he actually said.


8 posted on 07/03/2024 10:59:11 AM PDT by JSM_Liberty
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To: SeekAndFind

The problem for democrats is the only people Biden listens too is Jill and Hunter and they are telling him to stay in. Also, he has 3,900 of the 4,200 dem delegates already locked down and they are pledged by DNC rules to vote for him on the first ballot at the convention. So, if he digs in his heels and refuses to drop out, he can likely steamroll himself to the nomination Obama, Newsom, Hillary and anybody else be damned.


9 posted on 07/03/2024 10:59:30 AM PDT by apillar
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To: SeekAndFind

Can you say “Madam President Harris”?

I knew you could.......................


10 posted on 07/03/2024 11:00:25 AM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: SeekAndFind

Kamala is yet another incompetent!

Phooey!


11 posted on 07/03/2024 11:03:10 AM PDT by Honorary Serb
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To: SeekAndFind

Rumors are all over the board today. Now Biden allegedly said in a campaign call that he’s staying in.


12 posted on 07/03/2024 11:04:28 AM PDT by rdl6989 ( )
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To: SeekAndFind

Andrew Yang needs to come back and toss his hat in the ring.


13 posted on 07/03/2024 11:05:58 AM PDT by rovenstinez
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To: SeekAndFind

Huge move in the last 8hrs.

Harris into 5/2 fr 7/1

Biden out to 9/1 from 9/2.

President Trump remained unchanged at $1.70 to win $1.00.


14 posted on 07/03/2024 11:06:55 AM PDT by Freest Republican (There is no tyranny that cannot be justified by imbeciles)
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To: rovenstinez
He's an Asian man. So he's almost "White".

In other words, no.

15 posted on 07/03/2024 11:07:05 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: SeekAndFind

Harris / Buttigieg 2024

Heels UP / Bend Over 2024

LMAO


16 posted on 07/03/2024 11:10:43 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Her odds now crashing

Elena Schneider
@ec_schneider

Follow

President Biden on campaign call that just wrapped, per person on the call:

“Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”


17 posted on 07/03/2024 11:15:24 AM PDT by janetjanet998 (Legacy media including youtube are the enemy of the people and must die)
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To: SeekAndFind

Hang on Sleepy, Sleepy hang on! 🎶


18 posted on 07/03/2024 11:17:33 AM PDT by tflabo (Truth or tyranny)
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To: apillar

You’re right in that Biden has way more than enough delegates to win.

But the DNC has a card to play if Biden refuses to drop out. They could change the rules so that delegates are not forced to vote for their pledged candidates on the first round.

That would be wildly undemocratic. And Biden’s remaining supporters would scream bloody murder. But it could work.


19 posted on 07/03/2024 11:19:15 AM PDT by Leaning Right (The steal is real.)
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To: SeekAndFind

word salad for everyone!!


20 posted on 07/03/2024 11:19:21 AM PDT by BigFreakinToad (Remember the Biden Kitchen Fire of 2004)
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