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Ukraine war will end in surrender
Asia Times ^ | 7/2/24 | STEPHEN BRYEN

Posted on 07/01/2024 9:37:45 AM PDT by EnderWiggin1970

The Ukraine war will end in a surrender, not in a negotiated deal. That is my sense of where the war is headed and why the parties cannot negotiate a settlement.

The latest wrinkle in the missing negotiating saga is a declaration in the form of an interview given by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the Philadelphia Inquirer.

In the interview, Zelensky said there can’t be direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia but there could be indirect negotiations through a third party. In Zelensky’s proposed scenario, the third party will serve as an intermediary and any deal will only be with the intermediary, not between Russia or Ukraine. Zelensky suggested the UN could act in this role.

However, the Zelensky proposal is a non-starter for many reasons, but the biggest one is that warring states need to directly agree on ending a conflict.

There is no hope of a third party implementing any deal, as the failed Minsk agreements (2014, 2015) proved. Minsk was a hybrid case where the deal was signed by Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Ukraine refused to implement the deal and the OSCE proved toothless and unwilling to try and enforce the Minsk accords. The deal had political backing from Germany and France, although neither was a signatory nor legally obliged in any manner to support the resulting deal.

(Excerpt) Read more at asiatimes.com ...


TOPICS: China; Culture/Society; Editorial; European Union; Foreign Affairs; Government; Russia; Ukraine; War
KEYWORDS: 0anydaynow; 3daywar; 50centarmy; asiaslimes; bidenisputinsally; chicompropaganda; eussr; fiftycentarmy; fourthreich; killkillkillforpeace; mic; nato; putinsfoilly; redchina; russia; russiasurrenders; stephenbryen; surrender; ukraine; welfarewar; zeepersoutraged
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Part of the problem is that Zelensky is recognized as an illegal ruler, not so much because of the 2014 Maidan coup and subsequent subversion of representative government by NATO, as much as the termination of elections and his term in office ending back in May. From the Russian perspective there's no one in authority on the Ukrainian side to negotiate with.
1 posted on 07/01/2024 9:37:45 AM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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To: EnderWiggin1970
Hmm, we have no one here in authority either.

Trump will end it.

2 posted on 07/01/2024 9:41:08 AM PDT by Tommy Revolts (,,)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

Duly noted. May be true.

It occurs to me that Zeepers have mostly been quiet lately. I have enjoyed their absence.


3 posted on 07/01/2024 9:44:32 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("First the Saturday people, then the Sunday people...": ISLAM is the problem!)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

In the meantime, congratulations to Olena Zelensky on the purchase of her brand new €4.5 million Bugatti!!

https://veritecachee.fr/2024/07/01/olena-zelenska-est-devenue-la-premiere-proprietaire-de-la-toute-nouvelle-bugatti-turbillon/?swcfpc=1

https://greatawakening.win/p/17tLKTfSCH/congratulations-to-olena-zelensk/c/


4 posted on 07/01/2024 9:48:21 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion (🦅 MAGADONIAN ⚔️ )
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To: Nervous Tick

Unlike you, the people you call zeepers care about more than one issue.
I’ve been quiet because I’m following Trump.
As for this article, Asia Times is propaganda.
I’m not susceptible to moral posturing by communist dictators.


5 posted on 07/01/2024 9:48:35 AM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

Ceasefire in 6 months.


6 posted on 07/01/2024 9:49:29 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: EnderWiggin1970

The people have no say. So much for Democracy.


7 posted on 07/01/2024 9:49:33 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: EnderWiggin1970

This should be no surprise to anyone.

Ukraine has never had the GDP, natural resources, manufacturing or population to war with Russia. Only chance they had to avoid surrender is USA or NATO willing to stand between them. It’s obvious that ain’t happenin’....


8 posted on 07/01/2024 9:49:50 AM PDT by JParris
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To: Nervous Tick
"It occurs to me that Zeepers have mostly been quiet lately. I have enjoyed their absence."

I suspect that a Russian FAB glide bomb hit a Ukrainian propaganda unit and took them out. ;)

9 posted on 07/01/2024 9:50:59 AM PDT by wildcard_redneck (He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither.)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

Ukraine will not surrender if that includes them ceding even more territory. Granted what’s there is a moonscape wasteland, but I don’t see it.

The only way forward there is a UN conducted (NOT observed) election for Donbass that addresses whether or not those provinces want to be part of Russia. Anything less won’t be acceptable. And just to be clear, I don’t see that happening either.

China needs to exert influence over Russia to get them talking. Right now, they are Russia’s only engine - buying as much oil at a discount that Russia will sell them. If they pull the plug on that, it’s all over.

China is stockpiling for Taiwan. They have watched this and they have learned. They are stockpiling EVERYTHING. Taiwan is the next bump in the road - it’s just when.


10 posted on 07/01/2024 9:51:03 AM PDT by TangledUpInBlue
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To: Williams

>> I’ve been quiet because I’m following Trump.

I’ve been quiet because I don’t start any of those threads.

But whaddaya know, regarding President Trump we have something in common.


11 posted on 07/01/2024 9:51:12 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("First the Saturday people, then the Sunday people...": ISLAM is the problem!)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Incredible considering the deaths


12 posted on 07/01/2024 9:53:18 AM PDT by wardaddy (. A disease in the public mind we're enduring…Alina Habba is fine as grits I'd drink her bathwater)
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To: EnderWiggin1970
There is no hope of a third party implementing any deal, as the failed Minsk agreements (2014, 2015) proved. Minsk was a hybrid case where the deal was signed by Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Ukraine refused to implement the deal and the OSCE proved toothless and unwilling to try and enforce the Minsk accords....

Hogwash. It was Russia that violated the Minsk agreements - and the EXACT reason Ukraine desires both EU and NATO membership.

Asia Times... LOL

13 posted on 07/01/2024 9:54:06 AM PDT by TheBattman (Democrats-Progressives-Marxists-Socialists-Satanists: redundant labels.)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

What does the 2014 Maidan “coup” have to do with Zelenskyy’s legitimacy as the President of Ukraine?

It would appear you are rather ignorant of actual history of Ukraine, not just the last decade, but literally hundreds of years.

As to his “term in office” - Marshall Law (or their version of it) is not a new thing - and a nation that is missing a chunk due to an illegal war of aggression and occupation by imperialist Putin -

Do you really think (were it possible) that the US were invaded and 15-20% of our land mass was occupied by an enemy that is constantly attacking and bombing cities and infrastructure across the remaining land, that we too wouldn’t have some kind of “Martial Law” and a suspension of elections?


14 posted on 07/01/2024 9:57:56 AM PDT by TheBattman (Democrats-Progressives-Marxists-Socialists-Satanists: redundant labels.)
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To: Williams; Allegra
bidenzeeperzombiesmommyname.jpg
15 posted on 07/01/2024 9:59:02 AM PDT by bimboeruption (“Less propaganda would be appreciated.” JimRob 12-2-2023)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

Oh look - more debunked tabloid garbage. Guess those are to travel between the supposed half $billion in yachts that Zelenskyy supposedly bought?

The lack of discernment and intellectual honesty here on FR today is more like the old DemocratUnderground we of FR use to mock (rightly). Suckers for propaganda and fake news. just wow...


16 posted on 07/01/2024 10:00:21 AM PDT by TheBattman (Democrats-Progressives-Marxists-Socialists-Satanists: redundant labels.)
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To: Williams
Unlike you, the people you call zeepers care about more than one issue.

Complete garbage. zeepers are nothing but blood thirsty freaks who are nothing more then putty in the hands of this administration and the msm. They are too stupid to figure out they have been played even after years of nothing but more and more useless death and destruction. I spit in their direction in disgust!
17 posted on 07/01/2024 10:01:18 AM PDT by JoSixChip (P.S. There’s a fed in that thread you’re in right now.)
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To: TangledUpInBlue

“China needs to exert influence over Russia to get them talking”

Ass backwards. The problem has never been that Russia wouldn’t talk. They agreed to Minsk which included elections and autonomy within Ukraine. Markel and the Frog have both said that was a mere ploy to build up a bigger Uke military.

They tried for 6 months before the war to talk with us. We flipped them the finger and said what we do in Ukraine is none of their business, but we would discuss topics WE deemed important.

They sat for talks about 4 weeks into the war in Belarus. Uke SBU summarily executed one of it’s OWN negotiators.
Then the talks brokered by Turkey, Boris Johnson came in and sunk those talks.

Russia agreed to the grain export deal. But we refused to reconnect them back to SWIFT for their export bank... as agreed.

Forcing Russia to “talk” has never been the problem. And if it is, it’s comical that you think China should do that coercion thing on our behalf. China isn’t likely to do favors for NATO these days.


18 posted on 07/01/2024 10:02:17 AM PDT by DesertRhino (2016 Star Wars, 2020 The Empire Strikes Back, 2024... RETURN OF THE JEDI. )
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To: MinorityRepublican
There will be no ceasefire. Russia isn't going to settle for anything less than a guarantee Ukraine remains neutral and never join NATO.

There is no chance it will allow another military buildup in Ukraine.

19 posted on 07/01/2024 10:04:06 AM PDT by Kazan
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To: bimboeruption

Putin has endorsed Biden.


20 posted on 07/01/2024 10:10:41 AM PDT by nickcarraway
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