Skip to comments.
Election Model: Trump Will Win Popular Vote by Wide Margin
Breitbart ^
| 07/01/2024
| WENDELL HUSEBØ
Posted on 07/01/2024 8:05:45 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
click here to read article
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41-60 next last
To: ChicagoConservative27
Consider that 20% of Democrat voters admitted to breaking at least some election laws with regard to mail-in balloting in 2020. Without the cheat, Trump very likely won the popular vote in 2020 as well. If we just do the simple math and lop off 20% of Biden's "official" total in 2020 (81,000,000), that gives 64,800,000 votes. That puts him at about a million votes less than Hillary in 2016. I think that's a good estimate of how many legit votes Biden received.
It's also about 10 million less than Trump received in 2020.
21
posted on
07/01/2024 8:20:11 AM PDT
by
Antoninus
(Republicans are all honorable men.)
To: ChicagoConservative27
Agree. Don’t see it being six, but if it is, this would be close to 400 EVs.
22
posted on
07/01/2024 8:20:56 AM PDT
by
LS
("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." Jimi Hendrix)
To: ChicagoConservative27
Trump’s win has to be TOO BIG TO RIG.
23
posted on
07/01/2024 8:21:44 AM PDT
by
piytar
(Remember Ashli Babbitt and Rosanne Boyland!)
To: TexasFreeper2009
I'll crawl over broken glass to vote for Trump, but there are just too many low-info voters who will buy the 'convicted felon' canard even though it resulted from a Stalinist show trial.
And do you really think that DJT will be able to run a campaign and win an election if he's locked up in Riker's Island?
Unless SCOTUS 'reaches down' and puts an end to the lawfare like they did in Bush v. Gore, we're f**ked.
24
posted on
07/01/2024 8:22:20 AM PDT
by
bassmaner
(He y commies: I'm a white male, and guilty of NOTHING! Sell your 'white guilt' elsewhere!)
To: Antoninus
Your numbers sound reasonable to me.
I laugh at folks doing demographic voting analysis based on a stolen election.
It is like discussing poker strategy at a Mob poker game.
25
posted on
07/01/2024 8:24:44 AM PDT
by
cgbg
("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
To: ChicagoConservative27
Mark Elias should have this under control. They weren’t ready in 2016 and got caught flatfooted. Won’t happen again, I bet.
keep an eye on democracydocket.com
26
posted on
07/01/2024 8:27:05 AM PDT
by
griswold3
(Truth, Beauty and Goodness. )
To: ChicagoConservative27
If a Republican wins the popular vote, then the EV vote will be a landslide victory.
27
posted on
07/01/2024 8:27:14 AM PDT
by
Signalman
(I am not a snob. Ask anyone who matters.)
To: ChicagoConservative27
Too bad that’s not the deciding factor. Can the democommies buy enough electoral votes? I know, that can’t happen....
28
posted on
07/01/2024 8:27:48 AM PDT
by
rktman
(Destroy America from within? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this💩? 🚫💉! 🇮🇱👍!)
To: Signalman
he EV vote will be a landslide victory.It will, Biden has dementia and is unfit for office. He can't possibly get the votes of anyone who doesn't have dementia.
29
posted on
07/01/2024 8:28:39 AM PDT
by
1Old Pro
To: ChicagoConservative27
what margin of fraud did he use?
30
posted on
07/01/2024 8:28:46 AM PDT
by
joshua c
Comment #31 Removed by Moderator
To: FiddlePig
If the Democrat loses both the popular vote and electoral vote, we riot in the streets, burn and loot and claim “democracy has failed.” And indict the Republican for election interference.
-PJ
32
posted on
07/01/2024 8:36:01 AM PDT
by
Political Junkie Too
( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
To: Political Junkie Too
To: Political Junkie Too
I have to redo my HTML. The Democrats should be one column to the left.
-PJ
34
posted on
07/01/2024 8:38:06 AM PDT
by
Political Junkie Too
( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
To: Political Junkie Too
Based on polling as of Sunday, my model has a probability-weighted average of 317 Electoral Votes for President Trump.
As of now, here is a tabular list of the Electoral College as I see it.
State Rankings Definitions
- Safe - 100% probability of winning
- Strong - 75% to 99.99% probability of winning
- Lean - 62.5% to 74.99% probability of winning
- Toss-Up - 50% to 62.49% probability of winning
Democrat - 198 | Toss-Up - 13 | Trump - 327 |
---|
|
Safe | Strong | Leaning | Tilt-D | Tilt-R | Leaning | Strong | Safe |
---|
|
165 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 0 | 39 | 91 | 197 |
---|
|
EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State |
---|
|
54 | California | 2 | Maine | 10 | Minnesota | 13 | Virginia | | | 15 | Michigan | 11 | Arizona | 9 | Alabama |
|
10 | Colorado | 4 | New Hampshire | | | | | | | 14 | New Jersey | 16 | Georgia | 3 | Alaska |
|
7 | Connecticut | 5 | New Mexico | | | | | | | 10 | Wisconsin | 6 | Iowa | 6 | Arkansas |
|
3 | District of Columbia | 12 | Washington | | | | | | | | | 6 | Nevada | 30 | Florida |
|
3 | Delaware | | | | | | | | | | | 16 | North Carolina | 4 | Idaho |
|
4 | Hawaii | | | | | | | | | | | 17 | Ohio | 11 | Indiana |
|
19 | Illinois | | | | | | | | | | | 19 | Pennsylvania | 6 | Kansas |
|
10 | Maryland | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8 | Kentucky |
|
11 | Massachusetts | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8 | Louisiana |
|
28 | New York | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6 | Mississippi |
|
8 | Oregon | | | | | | | | | | | | | 10 | Missouri |
|
4 | Rhode Island | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4 | Montana |
|
3 | Vermont | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5 | Nebraska |
|
1 | Maine CD-1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3 | North Dakota |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7 | Oklahoma |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9 | South Carolina |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3 | South Dakota |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11 | Tennessee |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 40 | Texas |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6 | Utah |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4 | West Virginia |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3 | Wyoming |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | Maine CD-2 |
|
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
|
35
posted on
07/01/2024 8:41:54 AM PDT
by
Political Junkie Too
( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
To: ChicagoConservative27
Trump got over 400 EC votes in ‘20, but stealing the ballots through mail-in etc. took that away from him. I read an article several years ago that suggested Trump actually won California.
I honestly believe Biden got no more that 25-30M real votes and the rest were switched from Trump or invented out of thin air.
81M votes my a*s..
To: ChicagoConservative27
Just remember 81 million votes last time.
Its not who votes, it is who counts the votes.
37
posted on
07/01/2024 8:47:26 AM PDT
by
Mouton
(A 150MT hit may not solve our problems now but is a good start. )
To: ChicagoConservative27
The battleground states in order of importance are:
- Michigan (15)
- Wisconsin (10)
- New Jersey (14)
- Pennsylvania (19)
- Virginia (13)
- Nevada (6)
New Jersey popped onto the list based on the poll from over the weekend. This may be an outlier that drops NJ from the list after the next round of polling.
-PJ
38
posted on
07/01/2024 8:48:18 AM PDT
by
Political Junkie Too
( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))
To: ChicagoConservative27
Whoever is taking polls is being dishonest. There is NO way Biden is that close to Trump. It appears every bit of economic/political information we get from the MSM is manipulated or an outright lie.
39
posted on
07/01/2024 8:49:17 AM PDT
by
MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
(Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
To: JSM_Liberty
The National Popular Vote Compact doesn’t come in to play until enough states ratify it. I realize that, but for them to know that what they've been clamoring for non-stop would backfire on them has to give them pause.
40
posted on
07/01/2024 8:49:47 AM PDT
by
fwdude
( )
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-40, 41-60 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson