Here is the election map that I used to produce from my model.
-PJ
Posted on 06/26/2024 2:37:51 PM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
the biggest change they are worried about is one of bidens border jumpers, or a group of them carrying out a large scale attack on America.
The single rape/murder is bad, but take out a city block or building full of people and voters will wake (TF) up.
I hesitate to describe Silver as an “election expert.”
This is working within the system. We’ll see how much the Dem 50% of the country allows the ballot box solution we are working with.
Jesse Watters last night gave I think the best and most concise summary of the fact that the Dems will not accept losing, will not allow Trump to win, will not allow their enemies to survive and will not go along with the country choosing a different path forward.
Any fraud and cheating is outside of the model and not accounted for. It is possible to "normalize" the polling results based on historic turnout models versus polling data, but that can be risky and give a false sense of accuracy.
-PJ
That’s why the election will be stolen. 🙄
One missing component is that Nebraska split its EV in 2020, which it hadn't done since I built my model. I do have a split Maine, but not a split Nebraska. For now I'm going to leave it that way until I see 2024 polls indicating that Nebraska will split again.
My model results are much more optimistic than Silver's at this point. He says he "adjusts" poll results, and I do not. I do weight the polls by age, giving more recent polls more weight than older polls. My model will use the most recent 15 polls per state, if available.
Anyway, my model is predicting that President Trump is on track to get a probability-weighted average of 310 EV with a probability of 86% of getting at least 270 EV.
Percent of Electoral College Wins Where State Is Won (excluding Safe states):
Percent of Electoral College Wins Where State Is Won (excluding Safe states):
State Rankings Definitions
| Democrat - 202 | Toss-Up - 38 | Trump - 298 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | Strong | Leaning | Tilt-D | Tilt-R | Leaning | Strong | Safe | ||||||||
| 179 | 23 | 0 | 23 | 15 | 0 | 131 | 167 | ||||||||
| EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State |
| 54 | California | 2 | Maine | 10 | Minnesota | 15 | Michigan | 11 | Arizona | 9 | Alabama | ||||
| 10 | Colorado | 4 | New Hampshire | 13 | Virginia | 30 | Florida | 3 | Alaska | ||||||
| 7 | Connecticut | 5 | New Mexico | 16 | Georgia | 6 | Arkansas | ||||||||
| 3 | District of Columbia | 12 | Washington | 6 | Iowa | 4 | Idaho | ||||||||
| 3 | Delaware | 6 | Nevada | 11 | Indiana | ||||||||||
| 4 | Hawaii | 16 | North Carolina | 6 | Kansas | ||||||||||
| 19 | Illinois | 17 | Ohio | 8 | Kentucky | ||||||||||
| 10 | Maryland | 19 | Pennsylvania | 8 | Louisiana | ||||||||||
| 11 | Massachusetts | 10 | Wisconsin | 6 | Mississippi | ||||||||||
| 14 | New Jersey | 10 | Missouri | ||||||||||||
| 28 | New York | 4 | Montana | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Oregon | 5 | Nebraska | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Rhode Island | 3 | North Dakota | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Vermont | 7 | Oklahoma | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Maine CD-1 | 9 | South Carolina | ||||||||||||
| 3 | South Dakota | ||||||||||||||
| 11 | Tennessee | ||||||||||||||
| 40 | Texas | ||||||||||||||
| 6 | Utah | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | West Virginia | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Wyoming | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Maine CD-2 | ||||||||||||||
-PJ
Wow. That’s good stuff and I sure hope it works out like that.
On say PA where Trump probability of a win is 91% - how close are the candidates and margin of error, e.g. Trump 52%, Biden 47%, margin of error +/-2 or whatever it is.
That also may give an idea of how cheating would be required for a dem win.
Very cool analysis there sir.
First, the 91% represents the percent of Trump wins where Pennsylvania was also won. This means that 9% of the time, Trump wins the Electoral College without Pennsylvania.
The probability of winning Pennsylvania based on my date-aging of PA polls is 79.29%.
To see the actual poll spreads, I used the Real Clear Politics poll date found at this link (the first four polls).
-PJ
The link you provided indicates that for latest PA poll — Trump 48% Biden 45.1 which is nice but still fairly close. Not sure what the margin of error is.
Thanks!
Here is the election map that I used to produce from my model.
-PJ
Joe just needs to hold on to the blue wall in MI, PA, WI plus Omaha. Then he can squeak by with 270.
Assuming there's no surprises like Minnesota or Virginia.
Joe may have the advantage right now due to ballot harvesting.
I will admit that the input polling to my model is immature at the moment because it's just June. But right now the polling for Biden's "blue wall" are this:
-PJ
The risk is that he may lose a state where he's not paying attention. I think good candidates are New Mexico and New Hampshire.
You have the oil industry in New Mexico plus Biden is weak with Hispanics.
New Hampshire used to be competitive for the GOP so it could end up a steal for Trump this time.
According to my probabilities, Biden needs to watch out for his "must win" states.
From my post with the model results:
Pennsylvania is the state that they both must win. Then comes Wisconsin. If Biden loses both of these he's finished. Right now, the polls are favoring Trump in those states.
-PJ
If the election is fair, Trump wins Pennsylvania.
But we know that's not the case. The Democrats control the ballot boxes in Philadelphia. They will make sure every Democratic voter in Philadelphia is accounted for.
Polling can't account for that. And pollsters can't model for it without admitting that systemic vote fraud is an endemic problem.
-PJ
We'll find out in November. But if it turns out that fraud is significant like I said, voters will stop going through the motions after this election.
Why vote if they're going to cheat anyway?
Then polls will become worthless.
Then the question is what will the LAAP-dog media report? Will they blame it on the pollsters? Will the pollsters say they accurately captured the will of the people and blame it on the media for covering up the fraud?
Will it be a blue-on-blue fight or will the pollsters take one for the team and shut up about their "big miss."
-PJ
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