One missing component is that Nebraska split its EV in 2020, which it hadn't done since I built my model. I do have a split Maine, but not a split Nebraska. For now I'm going to leave it that way until I see 2024 polls indicating that Nebraska will split again.
My model results are much more optimistic than Silver's at this point. He says he "adjusts" poll results, and I do not. I do weight the polls by age, giving more recent polls more weight than older polls. My model will use the most recent 15 polls per state, if available.
Anyway, my model is predicting that President Trump is on track to get a probability-weighted average of 310 EV with a probability of 86% of getting at least 270 EV.
Percent of Electoral College Wins Where State Is Won (excluding Safe states):
Percent of Electoral College Wins Where State Is Won (excluding Safe states):
State Rankings Definitions
| Democrat - 202 | Toss-Up - 38 | Trump - 298 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | Strong | Leaning | Tilt-D | Tilt-R | Leaning | Strong | Safe | ||||||||
| 179 | 23 | 0 | 23 | 15 | 0 | 131 | 167 | ||||||||
| EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State |
| 54 | California | 2 | Maine | 10 | Minnesota | 15 | Michigan | 11 | Arizona | 9 | Alabama | ||||
| 10 | Colorado | 4 | New Hampshire | 13 | Virginia | 30 | Florida | 3 | Alaska | ||||||
| 7 | Connecticut | 5 | New Mexico | 16 | Georgia | 6 | Arkansas | ||||||||
| 3 | District of Columbia | 12 | Washington | 6 | Iowa | 4 | Idaho | ||||||||
| 3 | Delaware | 6 | Nevada | 11 | Indiana | ||||||||||
| 4 | Hawaii | 16 | North Carolina | 6 | Kansas | ||||||||||
| 19 | Illinois | 17 | Ohio | 8 | Kentucky | ||||||||||
| 10 | Maryland | 19 | Pennsylvania | 8 | Louisiana | ||||||||||
| 11 | Massachusetts | 10 | Wisconsin | 6 | Mississippi | ||||||||||
| 14 | New Jersey | 10 | Missouri | ||||||||||||
| 28 | New York | 4 | Montana | ||||||||||||
| 8 | Oregon | 5 | Nebraska | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Rhode Island | 3 | North Dakota | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Vermont | 7 | Oklahoma | ||||||||||||
| 1 | Maine CD-1 | 9 | South Carolina | ||||||||||||
| 3 | South Dakota | ||||||||||||||
| 11 | Tennessee | ||||||||||||||
| 40 | Texas | ||||||||||||||
| 6 | Utah | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | West Virginia | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Wyoming | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | Maine CD-2 | ||||||||||||||
-PJ
Wow. That’s good stuff and I sure hope it works out like that.
On say PA where Trump probability of a win is 91% - how close are the candidates and margin of error, e.g. Trump 52%, Biden 47%, margin of error +/-2 or whatever it is.
That also may give an idea of how cheating would be required for a dem win.
Very cool analysis there sir.