[plain talk]

Wow. That’s good stuff and I sure hope it works out like that.

On say PA where Trump probability of a win is 91% - how close are the candidates and margin of error, e.g. Trump 52%, Biden 47%, margin of error +/-2 or whatever it is.

That also may give an idea of how cheating would be required for a dem win.

Very cool analysis there sir.

[Political Junkie Too]

On say PA where Trump probability of a win is 91% - how close are the candidates and margin of error, e.g. Trump 52%, Biden 47%, margin of error +/-2 or whatever it is.

First, the 91% represents the percent of Trump wins where Pennsylvania was also won. This means that 9% of the time, Trump wins the Electoral College without Pennsylvania.

The probability of winning Pennsylvania based on my date-aging of PA polls is 79.29%.

To see the actual poll spreads, I used the Real Clear Politics poll date found at this link (the first four polls).

-PJ