Joe just needs to hold on to the blue wall in MI, PA, WI plus Omaha. Then he can squeak by with 270.
Assuming there's no surprises like Minnesota or Virginia.
Joe may have the advantage right now due to ballot harvesting.
True. Your map gives MI, PA, WI and VA to Biden.
I will admit that the input polling to my model is immature at the moment because it's just June. But right now the polling for Biden's "blue wall" are this:
- Michigan
- The Hill/Emerson, 6/3-6/18, Trump 46 - Biden 44.7
- MNS Mitchell Research, 6/3, Trump 48 - Biden 48
- Bloomberg/Morning Consult, 5/7-5/13, Trump 45 - Biden 46
- Cook Political Report, 5/6-5/13, Trump 47 - Biden 45
- New York Times/Siena, 4/28-5/9, Trump 46 - Biden 47
- Pennsylvania
- Emerson, 6/13-6/18, Trump 47.3 - Biden 45.2
- Bloomberg/Morning Consult, 5/7-5/13, Trump 48 - Biden 46
- Cook Political Report, 5/6-13, Trump 48 - Biden 45
- New York Times/Siena, 4/28 - 5/9, Trump 48 - Biden 45
- Wisconsin
- Marquette, 6/12-6/20, Trump 44 - Biden 40
- Emerson, 6/13-6/18, Trump 46.9 - Biden 44.3
- Bloomberg/Morning Consult, 5/7-5/13, Trump 47 - Biden 46
- Cook Political Report, 5/6-5/13, Trump 45 - Biden 45
- Quinnipiac, 5/2-5/6, Trump 44 - Biden 50
- New York Times/Siena, 4/28-5/9, Trump 47 - Biden 46
- Virginia
- Fox News, 6/1-6/4, Trump 48 - Biden 48
Biden has a lot of work to do to shore up his "blue wall."
-PJ