The election is closer than it should be: Given the facts, why is it a tie?

The Spectator ^ | 06/20/2024 | Ben Domenech

[SeekAndFind]

So I want to open with a caveat: Fox News is my employer, and anything I say that is critical of their pollsters should be understood as distinct to their pollsters, and not to the network as a whole. That said, their pollsters have occasionally been… very wrong. Who can forget the ludicrous Indiana Senate poll from 2018 that envisioned a dead heat between the candidates in a race the Republican won by seven points? So the point is, everyone can be off on occasion. But right now, the Fox prognosticators are…

Welcome to Thunderdome. So I want to open with a caveat: Fox News is my employer, and anything I say that is critical of their pollsters should be understood as distinct to their pollsters, and not to the network as a whole. That said, their pollsters have occasionally been… very wrong. Who can forget the ludicrous Indiana Senate poll from 2018 that envisioned a dead heat between the candidates in a race the Republican won by seven points? So the point is, everyone can be off on occasion. But right now, the Fox prognosticators are out with a poll that shows Joe Biden up, and the opinions about the economy up as well. It’s been a shift that is notable over the past month.

For Republicans, this may come as a shock, or they might dismiss it. But it’s probably pretty accurate, or close to it. Things just aren’t as bad for Joe Biden politically as some people would like to believe. The indications are dire on paper, to be sure — but even with his failures on the economy, chaos on the world stage and his radicalism on culture war issues, Biden is hanging in there.

The truth is that none of this is a significant change. Trump has been within the margin of error for a long time now and it’s hardly a surprise to see him there again. But it might be a surprise to those Republicans who thought the former president was running ahead. 

The power of incumbency is significant. So is the advantage bequeathed to Joe Biden by having a compliant media and massive donor support structure. Virtually every entity and institution of note is on Biden’s side. So for the former president, this is an uphill battle.

For Democrats, next week’s debate is about establishing stability and framing the upcoming fall contest. For Republicans, it needs to be about detailing all the failures of the Biden administration for voters who have generally tuned out of political news in the past few years. Anyone watching it needs to come away with the conclusion that the affordability of a home, food, gas, electricity and basic needs for a family are all problems that Joe Biden exacerbated. If they don’t, that’s going to be Donald Trump’s fault for spending too much time on issues that aren’t priorities for Americans.

If given the choice, I’d still rather be the Trump campaign than the Biden campaign at this point. But this is a much closer race than it should be given the state of affairs. The possibility of a shy Biden vote is very real. And no amount of hammering away from the right’s media arm will alter that fact. It will take a performance from the candidate himself.

[38special]

Ted Cruz is in trouble in Texas of all places. Polls are showing a close race with his democrat opponent, who’s campaigning like a conservative and running television ads around the clock.

[nbenyo]

Everyone I’ve spoken to is voting the same way they voted in 2020. I’m skeptical of Trump’s gains with young voters, blacks and Hispanics. I think they will revert to their historical patterns

[9YearLurker]

Because public opinion polls are rigged propaganda.

[Revel]

Right!

[frnewsjunkie]

And too many gullible people. The media paints Trump as someone they make up.. And they repeat, repeat.. So..The only choice gullibles have is the dimentia patient.

[Ann Archy]

We have TOO MANY EVIL PEOPLE IN THIS COUNTRY!!! KILL BABIES!!! MORE DEAD BABIES!! GAY AND FREAK EVERYTHING!

[Ann Archy]

Ben is a FABULOUS CONSERVATIVE!! Don’t know how he and Meagan could get along.

[Ann Archy]

The DEMONRATS HAVE CHEATING DOWN PAT!!

[mewzilla]

Too many stupid people.

Then why does Deep State have to steal elections, eh?

For bleeps sake people, if you're not willing to check out the methodology just consider it a cooked poll until proven otherwise.

Save yourselves some angst.

[unread]

"why is it a tie?"

If your going to pull off the BIG CHEAT you can't look like your five or ten points behind and expect to make it look believable.....can you?

[dforest]

This is one of those loser threads. Some person writes about things being close and everyone cries “woe is me, it is over” and then stays home on election day which is what RATs want.

Anyone who still believes in cooked polls with only 4 months out is gullible.

Biden may win, but it will be from vote hacking, rigging, and ballot stuffing.

That old creep Biden who has ruined the country would in no way have a slight chance if it weren’t for fraud and gullible people who blame their own voters and candidate for what the Joe Biden criminals concoct around election day.

By the way, I agree with you.

[mewzilla]

These polls are psyops.

Tokyo Rose with polls.

[mewzilla]

Actually Deep State does tell us something with all these BS polls.

Trump still terrifies Deep State.

That fact should make us all feel warm and fuzzy. 😀

[mewzilla]

I'll just toss this in...

And from last month and CA...

Newsonomics: Eight essentials as California’s “save local news” bill picks up speed

But...but CA is a blue state...

SNORT.

[unread]

"Biden has an advantage in that he leads amongst the two demographics who have the best voter turnout: The elderly and college educated whites."

I don't know. I find it hard to believe that the "elderly", as a whole, supports O'Biden. I'm elderly and most of the folks I associate with at church are elderly, and most everyone despises the lying, thieving rat with a passion..

As far as the "college educated whites" go....well, that doesn't say a whole lot for our educational system, does it.??

[maddog55]

It’s anything but close to a tie. What were being told is a lie. They can’t say Trump is leading because they don’t want that, they can’t say Biden is way ahead because we’re not that stupid so saying it’s a close or tied race makes them project Biden is doing good.

Perception by MSM.... It’s all lies.

[Ge0ffrey]

Why are you using the leftist putdown “rust belt”? Are you a lefty in disguise?

[Ge0ffrey]

Most likely there is a shy Trump vote, people who are afraid to tell the pollster they’re voting for Trump.

[Bratch]

The Guy Who Organizes Ballot Counting, Says Election Results Will Not Match Polling

June 16, 2024 | Sundance | 536 Comments

Hopefully readers here know exactly who James Clyburn is and what his function consists of within the Democrat party election process.

Remember, elections are no longer about “votes,” modern elections are about “ballots”.  The election winner is not the person who gets the most votes. The election winner is the person who collects, submits and counts the most ballots.   The contest for electoral victory is who gains the most ballots, not votes.

That said, at the end of the ballot harvesting operation in the key state counties for Democrats, there are precinct workers who are then tasked with counting those ballots.

The number of ballots needed to change the outcome of the election, is essentially the determining factor in how many ballots the precinct workers in the key districts count.

Most of the regional precinct workers in the key counties that change the elections, are affiliated with and originate from the AME church network.

The African Methodist Episcopal (AME) church, has precinct level ballot counting election operations (poll workers) in the key counties [Fulton (GA), Wayne (Mich), Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (PA), Clark (NV), Maricopa (AZ), Dane (WI), etc.]  The ballot counting doesn’t need to happen all over the state, just at the key urban county level.

The DNC operation (Obama/BLM network) concentrates heavily on the ballot harvesting.  However, when they turn those ballots over to the county level precinct workers, that’s where the AME church network and South Carolina Representative James Clyburn come into play. {GO DEEP}

The DNC no longer focuses on controlling the Secretary of State or Attorney General approach.  With the George Soros machine running the District Attorney level angle the democrats only need to concern themselves with the precinct level poll worker support.  Clyburn’s AME network is protected by the willfully blind George Soros DA’s.   It’s a one-hand washing the other-hand proposition.

One Politico reporter plays the pretending game with James Clyburn in a recent interview.  The reporter, just like you, me and Catherine Englebrecht, know exactly how this election manipulation game is rigged, but they maintain the pretenses within the questions.

Once you know exactly how the outcomes are reached in those counties, then the remarks by Clyburn take on the accurate context.  [TRANSCRIPT HERE]

QUESTION: I know you get asked this question a lot, but I’m going to ask it as well. And that is this series of polls this year that show Donald Trump doing a whole lot better with Black voters than he did in 2020.

The May New York Times/Siena swing state poll showed 23 percent Black support for Trump. He won 8 percent according to the exit polls in 2020.

And then the Wall Street Journal broke down an interesting gender divide in April. This was a national poll, and it showed that 30 percent of Black men said they’ll vote for Trump versus 12 percent in 2020 and 11 percent of Black women versus 6 percent in 2020.

This is a big shift. I don’t think you can deny that these polls are showing something. What do you think that Biden needs to do to turn this around?

JAMES CLYBURN – I don’t think he needs to do anything but what he’s doing. I think Joe Biden is doing exactly what he needs to do to win reelection. Something is amiss with the polling. I call your attention to the recent polls in Maryland. The African American woman [Angela Alsobrooks] running for the United States Senate nomination — the Sunday before the election, one poll had her five down, the other poll had her seven down — and she won by 13. How do you explain that? That’s 20 points.

Clyburn is saying the quiet part out loud, but the media pretend they don’t know what it means. Essentially, the AME networked county level “ballot counters” successfully ran the election operation and lifted Angela Alsobrooks to victory. Voting did not matter, counting ballots did.

JAMES CLYBURN cont… “So I have no idea what’s going on with polling these days. But I do know this, the polls did not have [Jon] Ossoff, nor [Raphael] Warnock winning Georgia. And then both of them won. The polls did not have [Lucy] McBath getting 87 percent in that district. But she did.

Anybody who believes that Donald Trump will get 30 percent of the Black male vote or 12 percent of the Black female vote — I got a bridge down there on Johns Island I’ll sell you.” (LINK)

Clyburn knows his network can essentially run the ballot counting operation without fear or concern because George Soros has put the DA’s in their pocket.  And, with the media cooperating, if anyone raises an objection or notices something sketchy, the ballot gathering group have the RACE CARD to immediately play.

If another 20 million actual American people vote for Donald J Trump the system has an offset.  The millions of illegal aliens who have entered the country are generating millions of additional ballots that might be needed.  The illegal aliens don’t need to vote, they just need to generate ballots by registering their physical presence in the correct state or county as needed.  The ballot collection and ballot counting groups will do the rest.

This is the challenge to overcome in the 7 to 11 counties where the 2024 operation will be executed.  The ballot fraud operation is not a massive conspiracy or large-scale enterprise, it is less than a dozen counties strategically located in key states.

• Democrats have the U.S. Dept of Justice.
• Democrats have the United States postal service.
• Democrats have the key state Secretaries of State.
• Democrats have the United States US Attorney General.
• Democrats have key state Attorneys General.
• Democrats have county level District Attorneys.
• Democrats have BLM foot soldiers (Ballot Harvesters).
• Democrats have AME precinct workers (Ballot Counters).
• Democrats have illegal alien names for ballots.

Democrats do not have voters.

DR. BEN CARSON: We have a lot to be concerned about, but we have an ace in the hole - God

[Robert DeLong]

I don't think they are confident, but we can rest assured that they will certainly try to pull off the steal yet again.

They have to, because their necks are on the line, and they know it. Joe supposedly received 81 million votes in 2020. If they were legitimate votes, that alone should provide them with confidence.

They thought they had pulled off the Covid scam pandemic so successfully, that it too could be used to generate fear again. However no matter what they called it, people are not running on fear this time around. They even claim a more virulent strain of Covid has shown up. But that too is still not generating enough fear to help them.

I was concerned that would not be the case, but I am pleasantly surprised to see that unfounded fear is not gripping the population this time around as it had in 2020.

That has only elevated their personal fears even more.

You can see the fear emanating from the likes of Andrew McCabe, to Anthony Fauci to even the likes of Rachel Maddow, the gaggle of woman on the view and well beyond. Because they know that they participated in treason.

They may take that route I do not want to even mention out loud. Because that is always a fallback plan with these criminals, and the desperation is so thick you could cut it with a knife.