Posted on 06/19/2024 11:45:17 PM PDT by RandFan
Sometimes, things happen that completely knock you sideways. And today is one such moment.
My firm People Polling, on behalf of its client GB News, surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,228 British adults. We asked them how they plan to vote at the UK general election on July 4.
Here are our numbers:
Labour 35%
Reform 24%
Conservatives 15%
Liberal Democrats 12%
Greens 8%
SNP 3%
That’s right. Nigel Farage and Reform are on 24%, in second place, and some 9-points clear of Rishi Sunak and the Tories.
(Excerpt) Read more at mattgoodwin.org ...
You put in this poll with the UNS model and the results are close to what the constituency poll for Clacton was for Farage.
Also, seats:
Labour 342
Reform 209
Lib Dem 49
Tory 7
ZERO SEATS !
lol... that is very optimistic
Who knows though. It looks like things are becoming scrambled to me.
People changing their vote, making their decision etc.
Two things I draw from this article.
First, the surge of Nigel Farage and the Reform Party.
Second, the absolute destruction of the Tories, they’ve gone from a huge majority just a few years ago to irrelevance which given their performance is justified.
The Tories absolutely betrayed their voters and they deserve to disappear.
They absolutely deserve to disappear or be relegated to such a minority party they are irrelevant.
The ability of different parties to form and become real factors in their government is something I wish we had in this country.
Yes. DJT should have done what Farage has done.
The GOP is going the way of the Tories unless something dramatic happens
That is a hung parliament unless a coillision can be formed.
Read the article. UNS model alas doesn’t apply. Off poll numbers the article predicted Labour 240, LibDems 64. Tories 45 Reform 50 seats.
Sorry, but this sounds like utter bollocks. Every other poll suggests at bes that reform will get up to 7 seats. MAYBE they will get more than that but even if Reform are polling higher than the Conservatives, Conservative support is still concentrated in key constituencies Re
They claim to be ahead of the curve
We will see July 4
24% + 15% = 39% - four points higher than Labour.
So...the rest of the Conservative supporters, if they have a Reform candidate on the ballot in their district, need to go ahead and get on board in joining in voting for Reform UK and a Labour government may not even happen. Farage has time to get that message out that they have a chance of avoiding a Labour government entirely if they don’t split their votes.
My personal belief is that Farage will take Clacton and a few other seats for Reform (predictions of them having no seats also being utter nonsense) however I think the British people are going to have to experience 5 years of a shambolic Labour government and then at the next election you will see Reform flood into Parliament in huge numbers. The British electorate are not yet sufficiently disillusioned with Labour and are just desperate to get the Tories out.
My personal belief is that Farage will take Clacton and a few other seats for Reform (predictions of them having no seats also being utter nonsense) however I think the British people are going to have to experience 5 years of a shambolic Labour government and then at the next election you will see Reform flood into Parliament in huge numbers. The British electorate are not yet sufficiently disillusioned with Labour and are just desperate to get the Tories out.
Nah, a Labour government will happen this electorate cycle. There is not a single poll that says otherwise, it won’t even be close. As for the next election, who knows? The fact that Labour will be over turning a substantial Tory majority because of how much they screwed things up shows that neither the Tories nor Labour can rely on a tribally loyal core of voters any more and violent swings away from them are very possible.
If you mean that DJT should start a 3rd party, just think back to the Perot campaign: the splitting of the Right, the result of which was the Clinton presidency.
Finally some good news. God save Britain.
Yes they’re already saying “Vote Conservative will get you Labour”.
In a lot of districts that appears to be true.
So what we could see is some scrambling and tactical voting, people changing their mind or making a decision to vote Reform
All of this wont be picked up by pollsters.
Election day is going to be interesting!
“Wooo things are getting interesting...”
Almost striking distance! Back when it happened, I pointed out that Farage’s repeated statement was that the vote this time around was for the runner-up, not for the winner, since everyone knew it was Labor, was INGENIOUS, as it dispelled the main reason people would vote against Farage - the thought that he may actually win, and how EMBARRASSING it would be to the Brits to have a Trump-clone as PM (as opposed to being taken over by Muslims, which is very chic, I guess).
If those numbers hold during the election, Labor will still have an edge forming a coalition with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens vs the Reform party and the Conservatives.
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