Posted on 06/18/2024 1:24:39 PM PDT by Vendome
Imagine San Francisco 18 years from now. That’s more than four mayoral terms, at least one fashion cycle and nearly one Van Ness rapid bus lane project away. Generation Alpha—who will be adults—will likely be calling Gen Z “out of touch” by then.
And—according to new long-term projections from real estate firm Avison Young—San Francisco won’t be left with a glut of empty office buildings anymore. On that front, the situation midway through 2024 is pretty grim. The city has the highest vacancy rate of any major market in the country—at more than 30%.
Using previous recovery periods as a model, the firm’s research team projected three possible years in which the city’s vacancy rates might again fall under double digits, as it was before the pandemic, when the office vacancy rate was considered relatively healthy.
The absolute dream scenario is 2030, which would require six consecutive years of record-level leasing activity. More realistically, if such activity ends up matching the same level as the early 2010s, things could return to normal by 2033. But anything less than that would push things back to as far as 2042.
The city’s overall office stock is likely to fall, experts say, as some get converted into other uses. Avison Young estimates some 10 million square feet of “functionally obsolete” office buildings might be pulled from the market, which would lower vacancy rates by decreasing the denominator.
“We’re going to be saddled with structural vacancy for quite some time,” said a researcher at a competing firm. “Because of the normalization of remote work, the situation today is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.”
(Excerpt) Read more at sfstandard.com ...
There is no longer any reason to be in San Francisco.
Just like NYC.
It’s cyclical, and this cycle has run its course.
No recovery on our lifetime.
SF can be fixed, but it would require expulsion of certain Democrat constituencies, which makes it politically impossible.
You would need to chase out anyone who wasn’t employed.
If they keep electing the same lunatics who keep imposing the same lunatic policies, the market will never recover.
18 years!?!?
according the left San Fransico will be underwater by then and we will all be dead because of SUV’s, cows, and barbecue’s !
Uhhhh, right...
The pandemic!
That’s the ticket; the pandemic caused it.
Such optimism!!!
San Fransisco will be but ashes and rubble long before 2042.
The needs of the business world are changing.
There is not such a need for all this office e space any more.
And there is not such a great need to have a physical office in certsin big cities any more.
Why pay a premium price for office space in expensive NYC or SF if you don’t need an office there?
MAYBE 2142
“SF can be fixed” — I’m not sure about that. The pandemic showed people how to work at home and they like it. Not sure those folks are coming back to city centers.
“That’s more than four mayoral terms away”
That’s enough time for the mayors to learn the names of TWENTY drag queens. Things will be perfect, then.
There, fixed it.
It’s doubtful any blue city will recover after all the long term damage it appears they will end up like Chicago.
Makes it easy for the corporations to lay them off when AI truly takes off.
And everyone there will be speaking Mandarin.
2042?! That’s some long-range forecasting!
Leftists love to talk about “sustainable development”.
San Francisco is not “sustainable” at all:
https://www.earthquakeauthority.com/blog/2020/san-francisco-bay-area-earthquake-prediction-risk
Kick all the fags, scoundrels, alcoholics and drug addicts out and you can do it overnight.
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