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2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions | Guilty Verdict Narrows Trump’s Lead Over Biden
Action Network ^ | May 30, 3024

Posted on 05/30/2024 4:01:16 PM PDT by lasereye

Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.

Donald Trump is still the favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election, despite a guilty verdict that makes him the first former president to be convicted of a felony in American history.

His odds have shifted slightly from earlier this week. Prior to the verdict, Trump was a -150 favorite, meaning oddsmakers gave him a roughly 53% chance of winning the election. After being found guilty of falsifying business records, Trump's odds have fallen to -112, which translates to a 48.28% to win the election.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden's odds to emerge victorious in November moved from +160 (a 34% chance) to +145 (a 37.3% chance). A $100 bet on his odds would earn $145 in profits.

Trump was convicted Thursday on 34 felony counts relating to a case in which he provided hush money through his former fixer, Michael Cohen, in order to cover up his affair with porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. His sentencing is scheduled for July 11.

The conviction means Trump could be sentenced to up to four years in prison, but the appeals process is lengthy. In addition, Trump could receive just probation when sentenced later this year.

2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions
Candidate Election OddsChance to Win Election
 Donald Trump -112 48.28%
 Joe Biden +145 37.30%
 Michelle Obama +2000 4.35%
 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +3000 2.95%
 Kamala Harris +5000 1.79%
 Gavin Newsom +5000 1.79%
 Nikki Haley +6600 1.36%
 Chase Oliver +10000 0.90%


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: betting; biden; fakenews; tds; trump
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If we think gamblers are good predicters then this is fairly good news.
1 posted on 05/30/2024 4:01:16 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Don’t believe any poll. They are ALL LIES!!!!

Trump will gain MORE votes because of this.

Any sane person KNOWS this was a Nazi/Communist Show trial

PERIOD!!!!!!!


2 posted on 05/30/2024 4:03:08 PM PDT by afchief
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To: lasereye

They put Chase Oliver on the list? Who’s running for the Constitution Party, the Green Party, the Peace and Freedom Party? Even Cornel West has a better chance than Oliver.


3 posted on 05/30/2024 4:03:35 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear (Kafka was an optimist.)
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To: afchief

This is not a poll.


4 posted on 05/30/2024 4:05:58 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

more ‘polls’ to push their reality and sell the steal


5 posted on 05/30/2024 4:06:02 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: sten

This is not a poll. It is betting odds.


6 posted on 05/30/2024 4:07:42 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Didn’t Biden want to ban these or something?


7 posted on 05/30/2024 4:09:10 PM PDT by janetjanet998 (Legacy media including youtube are the enemy of the people and must die)
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To: janetjanet998

This is from the UK. I did see something about them wanting to get rid of Predictit here.


8 posted on 05/30/2024 4:10:42 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

BULLS***


9 posted on 05/30/2024 4:12:08 PM PDT by ZULU (JUDGE JUAN MERSHAM IS A CRIMINAL.STRIP HIM OF CITIZENSHIP AND SEND HIM BACK TO COLOMBIA!!!)
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To: lasereye

“This is from the UK. I did see something about them wanting to get rid of Predictit here.”

I’ve read that MI6 was part of the Russia Hoax. Too bad we saved their a$$es in two world wars.


10 posted on 05/30/2024 4:17:23 PM PDT by KamperKen (u)
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To: lasereye

O BS.


11 posted on 05/30/2024 4:21:29 PM PDT by Jane Long (The role of the GOP: to write sharply-worded letters as America becomes a communist hell-hole.)
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To: Jane Long

These are betting odds from BetMGM in the UK. Does anyone here have any reading comprehension?


12 posted on 05/30/2024 4:27:18 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye
Guilty Verdict Narrows Trump’s Lead Over Biden

BULL$HIT!... it has had the exact OPPOSITE effect!

13 posted on 05/30/2024 4:36:01 PM PDT by VideoDoctor
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To: lasereye

The average time period in New York for a criminal appeal is 6 months, but there is no time limit. This will take Trump past the election. Expect ads that say, “Don’t elect a felon”.


14 posted on 05/30/2024 4:36:15 PM PDT by aimhigh (1 John 3:23 "And THIS is His commandment . . . . ")
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To: aimhigh

That’s the whole point of the sham trial....media and political talking points. You couldn’t see that early on?


15 posted on 05/30/2024 4:47:23 PM PDT by Maskot (Put every dem/lib in prison........like yesterday!!! )
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To: afchief

We ALL know that this “guilty” verdict dies not mead squat. If anything, the lead increases. Only the ignorant would consider this court buffoonery to actually MEAN anything


16 posted on 05/30/2024 4:51:13 PM PDT by madison10
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To: madison10

Y’know,it looked just fine before I pressed “post.”


17 posted on 05/30/2024 4:52:47 PM PDT by madison10
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To: afchief

This isn’t a poll


18 posted on 05/30/2024 4:54:45 PM PDT by roving (Deplorable Erectionists Listless Vessel )
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To: lasereye

So the question is can the GOP get DeSantis on the ballot for the convention on Jul 15th-18th for President, good question.


19 posted on 05/30/2024 6:53:17 PM PDT by baclava
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To: lasereye
2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions Candidate Election Odds Chance to Win Election

Donald Trump -112 48.28%

Joe Biden +145 37.30%

Michelle Obama +2000 4.35%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr +3000 2.95%

Kamala Harris +5000 1.79%

Gavin Newsom +5000 1.79%

Nikki Haley +6600 1.36%

Chase Oliver +10000 0.90%

Chase Oliver? I think I have a better chance of winning. And I'm not running!!! 🤓

20 posted on 05/30/2024 6:56:48 PM PDT by Deplorable American1776 (Guns don't kill people, LIBERALS DO!! Support the Second Amendment...)
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