Posted on 05/30/2024 4:01:16 PM PDT by lasereye
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.
Donald Trump is still the favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election, despite a guilty verdict that makes him the first former president to be convicted of a felony in American history.
His odds have shifted slightly from earlier this week. Prior to the verdict, Trump was a -150 favorite, meaning oddsmakers gave him a roughly 53% chance of winning the election. After being found guilty of falsifying business records, Trump's odds have fallen to -112, which translates to a 48.28% to win the election.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden's odds to emerge victorious in November moved from +160 (a 34% chance) to +145 (a 37.3% chance). A $100 bet on his odds would earn $145 in profits.
Trump was convicted Thursday on 34 felony counts relating to a case in which he provided hush money through his former fixer, Michael Cohen, in order to cover up his affair with porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. His sentencing is scheduled for July 11.
The conviction means Trump could be sentenced to up to four years in prison, but the appeals process is lengthy. In addition, Trump could receive just probation when sentenced later this year.
| Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -112 | 48.28% |
| Joe Biden | +145 | 37.30% |
| Michelle Obama | +2000 | 4.35% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +3000 | 2.95% |
| Kamala Harris | +5000 | 1.79% |
| Gavin Newsom | +5000 | 1.79% |
| Nikki Haley | +6600 | 1.36% |
| Chase Oliver | +10000 | 0.90% |
Don’t believe any poll. They are ALL LIES!!!!
Trump will gain MORE votes because of this.
Any sane person KNOWS this was a Nazi/Communist Show trial
PERIOD!!!!!!!
They put Chase Oliver on the list? Who’s running for the Constitution Party, the Green Party, the Peace and Freedom Party? Even Cornel West has a better chance than Oliver.
This is not a poll.
more ‘polls’ to push their reality and sell the steal
This is not a poll. It is betting odds.
Didn’t Biden want to ban these or something?
This is from the UK. I did see something about them wanting to get rid of Predictit here.
BULLS***
“This is from the UK. I did see something about them wanting to get rid of Predictit here.”
I’ve read that MI6 was part of the Russia Hoax. Too bad we saved their a$$es in two world wars.
These are betting odds from BetMGM in the UK. Does anyone here have any reading comprehension?
BULL$HIT!... it has had the exact OPPOSITE effect!
The average time period in New York for a criminal appeal is 6 months, but there is no time limit. This will take Trump past the election. Expect ads that say, “Don’t elect a felon”.
That’s the whole point of the sham trial....media and political talking points. You couldn’t see that early on?
We ALL know that this “guilty” verdict dies not mead squat. If anything, the lead increases. Only the ignorant would consider this court buffoonery to actually MEAN anything
Y’know,it looked just fine before I pressed “post.”
This isn’t a poll
So the question is can the GOP get DeSantis on the ballot for the convention on Jul 15th-18th for President, good question.
Donald Trump -112 48.28%
Joe Biden +145 37.30%
Michelle Obama +2000 4.35%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr +3000 2.95%
Kamala Harris +5000 1.79%
Gavin Newsom +5000 1.79%
Nikki Haley +6600 1.36%
Chase Oliver +10000 0.90%
Chase Oliver? I think I have a better chance of winning. And I'm not running!!! 🤓
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