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Is China Rethinking its Invasion of Taiwan?
American Thinker ^ | 04/27/2024 | Mike Phelps

Posted on 04/27/2024 9:04:00 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

When Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of U.S. naval operations, gave an interview in 2022, he made a point of saying he believed China could invade Taiwan in 2022 or 2023. As of the last week of April 2024, China has not invaded Taiwan. Does this mean that Taiwan and the international community can breathe a collective sigh of relief? Maybe. A compelling case can be made that if China does intend to take Taiwan, then the period between now and January 2025 is as favorable a time as it is likely to have over the near term.

There is an array of measures China could employ in a runup to an invasion of Taiwan. These include disrupting the U.S. military’s ability to intervene by destroying command and control satellites as well as severing key undersea fiber optics cables. Wouldn’t these actions demand a vigorous U.S. response? This is exactly what China must avoid if it’s to take Taiwan. Experts have been wargaming various scenarios for years and the consensus seems to be that if the U.S. intervenes quickly it will thwart China’s invasion, but there would be heavy casualties on both sides.

Xi Jing Ping and his regime must be weighing the probabilities of a Biden versus a Trump victory in November because the outcome would be a significant variable in their calculus.

China's best opportunity to invade Taiwan in the short term without meaningful U.S. intervention seems to be between now and January 2025 might be a valid conclusion. However, China likes to play the long game so its timetable might not match up at all with conventional wisdom. China's true intentions remain opaque.

Perhaps Xi has decided that an invasion of Taiwan is too risky -- at least in the short term.


(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: China; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Taiwan
KEYWORDS: china; invasion; peachynevertrumpamus; scared; scaredofbiden; taiwan
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To: kiryandil
Trump's signature move:

1) Brag about how great a negotiator he is.

2) Give away the store

3) Tell you what a great deal it is.

21 posted on 04/27/2024 9:48:56 PM PDT by Poison Pill
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To: SeekAndFind

China had better not wait past the results of the November elections and the new Inauguration Day later.

Their friend Zhao Bai-Denn might not be on the stage by then.


22 posted on 04/27/2024 9:52:58 PM PDT by frank ballenger (There's a battle outside and it's raging. It'll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls.)
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To: Freest Republican

Houthis just released photos of a Reaper drone they claimed to have shot down.

( another $30 million down the drain)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/yemens-houthi-rebels-claim-downing-152119563.html


23 posted on 04/27/2024 9:59:43 PM PDT by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: Reverend Wright

It’s weird comparing the fake Iranian attack that wasn’t fake to Beware of the Houthis to see such differing outcomes-

even if it was known that it doesn’t pass the sniff test on face value.

that obv includes that the Saudis had issues with them in the past and had similar difficulties.

At the end of the day it is Iran-words like sophisticated, superior etc....don’t apply.


24 posted on 04/27/2024 10:10:51 PM PDT by Freest Republican
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To: Poison Pill
You're obviously not bright enough to figure out what President Trump is useful for.

Run along. The Turtle looks like he needs someone to spell him for a bit in The Fluffing of the Schumer.

25 posted on 04/27/2024 10:31:35 PM PDT by kiryandil (what Ukrainian electrical grid doink?)
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To: Reverend Wright

Cha-CHING! sez the American MIC.


26 posted on 04/27/2024 10:33:04 PM PDT by kiryandil (what Ukrainian electrical grid doink?)
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To: Freest Republican
He doesn't want to take it NOW, I should have elaborated.

He can take his time and no need for chess of any kind when dealing with the current incompetent administration.

I don't see how Russia, China, and Iran are isolating themselves. They're definitely making inroads into what is now referred to as the "Global South". BRICS may be a joke to some, but it seems to be gaining steam. By focusing on trade and ignoring the domestic policies of their trading partners they have been able to skirt SWIFT, sanctions, and everything else the increasingly Islamic West has thrown at them.

Despite its necessity, the US's support of Israel is isolating us from the rest of the world more than even Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's hard to say that Iran is being more isolated when it is difficult to know what foreign policy is being followed by the Middle Eastern countries who say one thing one day, and do another thing the next.

And China has its Belt and Road which has its problems, but appears to be going forward into places like Africa at the same time that France and the US are being kicked out.

27 posted on 04/27/2024 10:36:39 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear (Kafka was an optimist.)
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To: SeekAndFind

China will take Taiwan the same way they took Macau and Hong Kong.


28 posted on 04/27/2024 10:39:55 PM PDT by yuleeyahoo (“Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!” - the deep-state)
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To: kiryandil

Sounds like the $30 million price tag is obsolete.

Canada is paying over $150 million each for 11 Reapers.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/12/20/canada-armed-drones/


29 posted on 04/27/2024 10:43:32 PM PDT by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: Right_Wing_Madman

Yeah.

Neither Mao or Sun Yat Sen thought Taiwan was part of China.

Chiang Kai-shek was the one who asked for Taiwan to become part of the Republic of China after Japan was defeated. But it never happened because the communists took over China in 1949 before Japan officially gave up sovereignty over Taiwan in 1952.

Mao just wanted Taiwan because Chiang was able to retreat there.


30 posted on 04/27/2024 11:59:31 PM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: yuleeyahoo

“ China will take Taiwan the same way they took Macau and Hong Kong.”

You mean England is going to give it to them?


31 posted on 04/28/2024 12:04:12 AM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: who_would_fardels_bear

They want to increase their sphere of influence.

It is less now for each of them than in the past.

Arabs came to the defense of Israel on the Iranian attack-it was the 2024 black swan everyone has been talking up-for Iran. I doubt that they have ever been this isolated previously.

Russia is self explanatory, the skirting SWIFT which really means no membership to the first world-has intuitively led to his sanction evading partners into screwing him when the bills came due. The ruble was up for the first four months of this war=sanction evading success. The ruble has since gotten crushed=bills came due and his partners stuck it to him-like India who won’t let him repatriate. He had to raise rates to 16% in response.

China has been taking their time developing their own nation. Any day now they’ll be joining us in the 21st century.

Russia has minimal support from what was the former eastern bloc, Iran has little to no support in the middle east and although a Russia/China alliance is one of Biden’s biggest blunders as US policy has been befriend one and use it against the other for quite a while-at no time has them strategically aligning been less of a threat than now. Russia is not the USSR.

I’d think that we’d be alienating all of earth by now-yet they cannot exist without US medical, Silicon Valley and SWIFT many are also indefensible to a swarm of gnats without US military.

it’s not that the BRICS are a joke-it would just take them cooperating with Europe and/or Asia plus completely reversing course on the last 50yrs of innovation in the world to make a substantive difference. When continents decimate defense and medical R & D spending for the sake of social welfare-stagnation follows. Compared to the past, our lives are barren of innovation fr No and Western Europe and much of Asia absent S Korea.


32 posted on 04/28/2024 12:29:34 AM PDT by Freest Republican
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To: sten
China’s in no rush.

In 2004 former President Jiang Zemin set 2020 as the deadline in a speech to PLA leaders.
33 posted on 04/28/2024 1:11:48 AM PDT by Chad_the_Impaler
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To: SeekAndFind

China isn’t invading Taiwan. They lack the sea lift capability. Period.

This is a manufactured “crisis.”


34 posted on 04/28/2024 1:12:40 AM PDT by Vermont Lt (Don’t vote for anyone over 70 years old. Get rid of the geriatric politicians.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I really do not see how an invasion of Taiwan helps anyone. Thousands will be killed in a war and let’s say China does win, what happens next? What about the retaliation factor? Also, how can this happen without satellites not seeing an invasion going down in real time? There will have to be hundreds of aircraft, ships, thousands of troops all brought together in secret.

I believe my solution resolves this. Sell two fully loaded Ohio Class subs to Taiwan, with American sailors embedded on the subs to train the Taiwan navy. Taiwan can issue a simple statement. “We are now a nuclear power and if China invades the sovereign nation of Taiwan, we will be forced to counter with everything available to us.”

Would definitely give China pause.


35 posted on 04/28/2024 4:57:55 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Waving Ukraine Flags in Congress is an act of Treason! )
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To: SeekAndFind

China cannot take Taiwan without US permission. Simply blockading oil shipments through the the Straits of Malacca would starve China.


36 posted on 04/28/2024 5:11:05 AM PDT by devere
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To: SeekAndFind

With the navies of 27 nations patrolling the East and South China Seas, China can’t take Taiwan


37 posted on 04/28/2024 5:22:22 AM PDT by bert ( (KE. NP. +12) Hamascide is required in totality)
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To: SeekAndFind

They realize that Trump’s campaign is plugging up the holes of Democrat/communist voter fraud and are beginning to fear his return.
In short - they waited too long and they know it.


38 posted on 04/28/2024 5:22:54 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Freedom is never free. It must be won rewon and jealously guarded.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The ease with which Israel and the US dispatched 300 drones and missiles was a wakeup call to the ChiComs, who were counting on drone swarms to take out the 7th Fleet. Their fleet “outnumbers” us mainly in small destroyers or other quasi-coastal ships. Their big navy would go down in minutes.

The U.S. now has drone diesel subs whose job it is to destroy surface craft. If our Trident stealth tech is as good on these as it is on the OH class, we could park one in their harbor and they wouldn’t know it.

Bottom line, before the ChiCom fleet could get Taiwan pacified-—and it would lose a ton of men and equipment doing so-—it would be open season by the 7th.


39 posted on 04/28/2024 6:26:53 AM PDT by LS
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To: ifinnegan

Correct. Taiwan is like the bear and the porcupine. The bear can eat the porcupine any time, but it will not be pleasant.


40 posted on 04/28/2024 6:27:26 AM PDT by LS
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