Is a Biden comeback quietly underway?

The Hill ^ | April 2, 2024 | BY DOUGLAS SCHOEN AND CARLY COOPERMAN

[lasereye]

Unless you are deeply immersed in politics, you likely missed a major development over the last three weeks: Since his State of the Union speech, President Joe Biden has seen a marked reversal of his fortunes.

Indeed, since Biden addressed the nation in early March, polling shows that Biden is gaining ground, as former President Donald Trump now leads Biden by only one percentage point according to the RealClearPolitics polling average — Trump’s smallest lead since January.

In the Quinnipiac poll released last week, Biden led by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent, bringing the total to 12 national polls showing Biden leading Trump since the SOTU, as Jessica Tarlov noted last week.

Moreover, Biden’s bounce is being seen not only in national polls but also in the battleground states that will determine the winner. In Wisconsin, Biden now leads Trump (46 percent to 45 percent), a 5-point swing in Biden’s favor since February, per the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult Swing State Tracking poll.

In Pennsylvania Biden erased what was a 6-point lead for Trump in February, and the state is now tied at 45 percent apiece, according to the same poll.

And in Michigan — a state that has been at the center of Democratic angst due to Biden’s support for Israel and the state’s large Arab population — Trump’s 2-point lead in February is now a tie (45 percent each) per Bloomberg/Morning Consult.

Even Nevada, a state where Trump has dominated the polling — according to RealClearPolitics, Trump has led every poll since October — has slowly but steadily warmed up to Biden. In January, Trump’s lead was as high as 8 points (48 percent to 40 percent), and in February the former president still held a 6-point advantage in Bloomberg/Morning Consult’s poll.

However, the latest survey shows Biden within the margin of error, trailing Trump by just 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent.

To be clear, while polling represents how voters feel at a single point in time, the larger trend is clear: Biden’s numbers are improving, albeit slowly, while Trump’s are flat or declining, nationally and in individual swing states.

In that same vein, Biden is seeing growing enthusiasm outside of the polls. In the 24 hours after the State of the Union speech, Biden took in $10 million in campaign donations, nearly one-third of the amount Trump’s campaign had on hand as of its latest Federal Election Commission filings.

This was not a one-off. On Thursday, Biden held a fundraiser in New York City with former Presidents Obama and Clinton that raised another $25 million, adding to Biden’s already massive cash advantage over his opponent.

What’s behind Biden’s comeback? While there are a few possible factors, such as Trump spending more time in the courtroom than on the campaign trail trying to win over disaffected Nikki Haley voters while Biden visited five cities in the past week alone, where he made his case to voters.

However, the main reason for Biden’s bounce is likely even simpler: Negative views on the economy are moderating, and as voters begin feeling better about the economy, it is logical that they would also feel better about the person leading the country.

As noted in the latest CNBC All-America Economics Survey, one-quarter of registered voters now say the economy is “excellent” or “good,” up from just 19 percent in December and the highest reading since summer 2021. True, this is still a low number, but again, the trend is in Biden’s favor.

To that end, since entering office, Biden has struggled to communicate just how strong the American economy has been under his administration, particularly our robust recovery from COVID-19 and related economic shocks, despite signs of a strong economy.

The latest jobs report showed unemployment sitting at 3.9 percent, near historic lows. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, has hit 22 record highs this year and just completed its best first quarter since 2019.

And inflation, which has been a thorn in Biden’s side virtually his entire presidency and remains a problem, has slowed down, with the latest overall personal consumption expenditure reading showing a 2.5 percent rise over the last 12 months — still higher than the Federal Reserve wants, but a significant decrease from February 2023’s 5.19 percent number.

Most importantly, the latest personal consumption expenditure report has increased the chances that the Fed will lower interest rates in June, which would lower borrowing costs right before the election, and may further juice the stock market, which many Americans use as a visible sign of the strength — or weakness — of the overall economy.

This is not to say that Biden will cruise into November’s election, nor is it guaranteed that Biden’s comeback is anything more than transitory, as Biden’s overall approval rating at 39 percent, per FiveThirtyEight, is higher only than former President Harry Truman at this point in their presidencies, even trailing Jimmy Carter by 4 points.

Further, on a slew of other issues, voters resoundingly prefer Donald Trump, including immigration (Trump +48), crime (Trump +28) and inflation (Trump +27) according to CNBC.

Rather, it is to say that if sentiment towards the economy continues improving, Biden will have removed one of the biggest obstacles to his reelection — the perception that he is bad for the economy and bad for people’s personal financial situation.

While it remains to be seen whether these trends will continue in Biden’s direction, if they do, Biden may well be able to sustain his growing momentum and present an even more formidable challenge in November.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”

[Conway Feebs]

Rallies, bigger or smaller, mean nothing for sure.

[Bob434]

the hill missed April Fool’s Day by 1 day

[Racketeer]

The Lying Media (MSM) can make numbskulls believe anything. The percentage ofnumbskulls in the USA is very high.

[lasereye]

Rallies are not enough. Trump needs lots of ads.

They need a sophisticated media strategy. And lots of money. He doesn't have second one. I would not bet on them having the first one.

[lasereye]

Trump is ahead in all swing states.

Not according to this article.

[Sarah Barracuda]

Every single poll Ive seen other than quinnipiac shows Trump kicking Biden’s ass, and even worse for Biden if RFK Jr is in the race

[RedMonqey]

Exactly, I venture into watching the alphabet network news and it’s Orange Man bad, all the time when it’s not praising the glorious Biden and the economy.
For “low information voters”:as Rush used to say, this is all they get.
Being anti Biden ain’t going to be enough....

[PghBaldy]

I see Biden ads at least once or twice a week online (on Youtube before videos play). Have seen no Trump ads.

In Texas years ago, IIRC, Beto raised $40 million I think, and Cruz beat him... I think Hillary had tons of $$$ in 2016, and lost.

[Olog-hai]

Fraud denial. He needs fraud to get “back in” this time around too.

PS. Welcome to FR. Did you join solely to concern-troll for Biden? because that is the primary purpose of fraud denial. ICYMI, we are in a Constitutional crisis, literally.

[ConservaTexan]

Four years ago he campaigned like he already knew the outcome of the stealection. Now, his handlers are Presidenting like they know the 2024 results ahead of time. I wonder why.

[Olog-hai]

Oh? Since when has out-frauding the fraudsters worked?

There’s a God above us, after all.

[Reno89519]

Underway, no. The reality is that 45% of the voters will vote for Biden. Will they have the enthusiasm to do so or will fraudulent votes make up the different.

Trump will get his core, smaller. Will he get other Republicans?

And then the independents, the wild card. Again, I bet enthusiasm will be key.

So media will play up losses and comebacks to fit the narrative but this is all in the margins.

I do bet the dead voters will vote for Biden without regard to the latest polls.

[Owen]

There is a methodology difference in play.

Some pollsters use turnout in recent elections to determine weighting and others use the 2020 Census (which has been corrupted) to determine weighting.

Regardless of all this, what matters is the direction of leads with methodology held constant.

I don’t see an issue yet.

[Olog-hai]

Complete lie and fraud denial.

Opus?

[Captain Peter Blood]

I would not buy into that poll that much.
Kennedy will impact Biden and should

But I think the pressure on The Fed to do at least one rate cut is coming and I suspect it will be in June to inflate the market, depending on the polling in August and this is stretch, maybe a small rate cut in September.

The outlook for 2025 though is a different matter entirely. I expect to see Inflation roaring back, because it never left and The Fed will have at least 4 to 5 rate increases to battle it. So get ready for a full blown recession and a market decline. Head for Bonds to survive and preserve Capital. Even Treasury Notes will look good and CD’s might even offer great rates of 8.5% or better.

Inflation is still there and the real rate is running at about 8 to 10%, so Biden trying to sell a great economy will be a hard sell all the way around. All he can do is force Powell to do a rate cut to create the Illusion of prosperity. Reality we are creating another $1 Trillion of Debt every 100 Days or so and Spending is killing us.

Whoever is President will have a real mess to do deal with and will have no solutions for it.

[Reno89519]

Yes, lie and fraud for the polls. But do you not disagree that there are hard-core pools of votes that won’t change. Maybe not 45%, that is a number I’ve seen in the past regarding Democrat voting behavior so what do you think is the hard-core base that each party or candidate starts with?

[DoodleBob]

Trump has to answer just ONE question. How are you going to flip 38+ electoral votes?

We NEED Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona or some combo theirin.

And this is against the backdrop of mail-in voting, which isn't going away.

Many FReepers are getting it right - we need not break law like the Others, but at least bring a knife to a knife fight.

flamberge had some good ideas too:

To the extent that we have any legal and peaceful means of winning "elections" it will depend on adopting new tactics and strategies to game the mail-in ballot system.

Committing ballots as early as possible is part of what is needed. Get the ballots with relentless daily tracking of Republican voters and provide them with every possible assistance to turn in a vote.

Preventing last-minute injection of fraudulent ballots is another critical part of what is needed.

Campaign advertising must change. Issues don't really matter all that much. Hard to accept, but how many times does that need to be demonstrated? "Tribal" affiliations override just about everything else.

The biggest factor, however, is not race, nor ethnic background, nor religion. It is gender. Quite simply, the Republicans must focus on appealing to men.

Without any apology, the Republicans must project hyper-masculine imagery in everything they do, even to the point of caricature.

It is the one strategy that can draw enough Black and Hispanic men to cripple the Democrat voter base. They have become too dependent on 90% turnout in those demographics, to win without them. Even a minor shift will make a major problem for the Democrats. They would need to extend their fraud efforts to preposterous levels in order to deal with the defectors.

The Democrats might indeed extend fraud to such an obvious level that they can demonstrate no further need for elections ever again.

If so, then everybody will proceed to settle political conflicts by other means.

Really, thoughtful ideas.

And yet there REMAINS a large quantum of surrendercons who'd rather have Bud Light with their whine and cheese, bitch and moan that all is lost, and fantasize about CWII bravely from behind a keyboard.

[HamiltonJay]

Agreed that poll exists purely to skew the averages so that articles like this can be written to further gaslighting.

[laconic]

Both R backed public issues on the ballot in Wisconsin to stop billionaire (Soros, Zuckerberg) financial takeovers of local elections passed by wide margins tonight. As far as Trump not garnering as many votes as the senile boob did tonight, it is because three of the four primary states are solid blue (CT, NY, Rhode Island). Also, Baris’ Pennsylvania poll tonight shows Trump up by 5-6 points over the fool.

[mass55th]

More like another election steal quietly underway.