Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success

ISW ^ | March 27, 2024 | By Nataliya Bugayova and Frederick W. Kagan

[Chad C. Mulligan]

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West - and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. The West’s existing and latent capability dwarfs that of Russia. The combined gross domestic product (GDP) of NATO countries, non-NATO European Union states, and our Asian allies is over $63 trillion.[1] The Russian GDP is on the close order of $1.9 trillion.[2] Iran and North Korea add little in terms of materiel support. China is enabling Russia, but it is not mobilized on behalf of Russia and is unlikely to do so.[3] If we lean in and surge, Russia loses.

The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success. The Kremlin must get the United States to the sidelines, allowing Russia to fight Ukraine in isolation and then proceed to Moscow’s next targets, which Russia will also seek to isolate. The Kremlin needs the United States to choose inaction and embrace the false inevitability that Russia will prevail in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s center of gravity is his ability to shape the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine, and Russia itself. The Russian strategy that matters most, therefore, is not Moscow’s warfighting strategy, but rather the Kremlin’s strategy to cause us to see the world as it wishes us to see it and make decisions in that Kremlin-generated alternative reality that will allow Russia to win in the real world.

[Chad C. Mulligan]

Those whose perspective aligns with the Kremlin’s are not ipso facto Russian dupes. The Kremlin links genuine sentiment and even some legitimate arguments to Russia’s interests in public debate. The Kremlin is also an equal opportunity manipulator. It targets the full spectrum of those making or informing decisions. It partially succeeds on every side of the political spectrum. Perception manipulation is one of the Kremlin’s core capabilities — now unleashed with full force onto the Western public as the Kremlin’s only strategy for winning in Ukraine.[4] That is not a challenge most societies are equipped to contend with.

[Paladin2]

The Rooskies will bury us?

[In BS]

Maybe they can get H->! elected yet.

[Chad C. Mulligan]

Actively stimulating American isolationism is a stated tactic within Aleksandr Dugin's "Eurasian" strategy. Given the density of pro-Moscow posting here, I would argue that Americans aligning with Putin are in fact dupes.

.....Russia should ....support the isolationist tendency in the US, saluting with favor the limitation of US geopolitical interests to the American continent...... Aleksandr Dugin, as quoted by James D. Heiser .

"Men are born ignorant but not stupid. They are made stupid by watching YouTube videos." .. with apologies to Bertrand Russell

[OVERTIME]

Straight from the Top Warmongers

“Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West - AND WILL LIKELY LOSE - if the West mobilizes and blah blah blah.

Probably true

But what will happen if Russia loses?
The Russians have told us, repeatedly, calmly and precisely.

They will start an atomic war.
Which would probaly kill over 200 million Americans.

But Globalism and our LBTGQMAP agenda is well worth our Ekites risking 200 million deaths

[Fido969]

ISW analysis= worthless.

[FreedomForce]

Katastrophic Kagan Klan

[AndyJackson]

Yeah cuz winning Asian land wars is in our long term national interest [/sarc]. You are a strategic fool. Asia ain’t our problem. The threats to our sea lines of communication are.. Tell me how we are going to deal with that after years of malinvestment in straightening out the Middle East.

[AndyJackson]

Precisely.

[Basket_of_Deplorables]

It’s a border war between two corrupt countries. I don’t care about either.

That said, I’m done with NATO. We need to get out. All they do is blow money and blow up people.

[Wallace T.]

Frederick Kagan, one of the authors of this article, is the brother in law of Victoria Nuland, who recently resigned her State Department position.

[trebb]

“Perception manipulation is one of the Kremlin’s core capabilities “

Do you think they’re better at it than our own corrupt government? When does our own corruption prevent us from being ‘right”?

[McGruff]

[canuck_conservative]

No need for a “peace deal” if Russia had just stayed within its own borders

* like every other country in Europe somehow manages to do ...

[FreedomForce]

But Russia didn’t, so you admit there’s a need for a peace deal?

[Bobbyvotes]

Bankrupt countries such as USA are better served to avoid engaging in foreign wars. When debt exceeds GDP, it is best to get own house in order first. And protect our own borders before worrying about Ukraine’s borders.

[canuck_conservative]

so you admit there’s a need for a peace deal?

Nope, Russia needs to be kicked out of Ukraine first

Besides, Russia doesn't keep its word ... it already had a peace treaty with Ukraine, where it promised to respect Ukraine's borders ... and invaded anyway!

How can you have any "deal" with lying snakes like Russia?

[moovova]

"...if Russia had just stayed within its own borders
* like every other country in Europe somehow manages to do ...

Lol...you know absolutely nothing about European history, do you? Take a class.

[canuck_conservative]

How many European countries have invaded their neighbors in the last 20 years, genius?

Russia has invaded 4 countries in that time

[pigeoninthepark]

The United States invaded Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq in the last 25 years

[delta7]

Sounds like a bunch of Hopium…..and realization the West simply made a huge mistake trying to advance up to Russia’s borders through a proxy, the gig is up.

Ukraine is depleted in every sector, relying 100 percent on Hopium and western welfare. I don’t believe in Unicorns, Vlad still holds all the cards.