Ron DeSantis slides to 16%, third place in key Iowa poll

Florida Politics ^ | 1.14.24 | A.G. Gancarski

[conservative98]

The Governor bet heavily on Iowa. It doesn't appear to be paying off.

Ron DeSantis is heading into the Iowa caucuses in third place.

In the final Des Moines Register poll ahead of Monday’s vote, the Florida Governor has 16%.

That puts him behind Nikki Haley (20%), and way behind Donald Trump (48%).

This poll, conducted Jan. 7-12 of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers, is the latest survey of the race to suggest that without some miracle, Trump will emerge the winner Monday evening.

And it raises existential questions about the path forward for the Florida Governor, who is drawing just 22% with evangelicals, a voting bloc he courted but is losing by nearly 30 points to Trump.

[conservative98]

[TBP]

The Register poll is usually wrong.

[silent majority rising]

Iowa polls won’t mean a damn thing tomorrow night. They don’t mean much today..

[George J. Jetso]

Please clap.

[Trump20162020]

A week from now you guys can finally get over him and start crying about Nikki instead.

[CodeToad]

DeSantis is slimy. He is not helping Trump and America with the out of control Democrats. Instead, he is trying to capitalize on them removing Trump.

I will not vote for him no matter what.

[CodeToad]

DeSantis is slimy. He is not helping Trump and America with the out of control Democrats. Instead, he is trying to capitalize on them removing Trump.

I will not vote for him no matter what.

[M. Thatcher]

They've been wrong exactly three times since 1984 (chart at link):

Candidates who lead the most recent Iowa Poll one month prior to the Iowa caucuses often go on to win the caucuses

Source:

DeSantis says Iowa Caucus polling is 'never accurate.' We checked. Here's what we found

[Vermont Lt]

Maybe he will bail Tuesday. That will be interesting.

[NWFree]

Looks like Meatball comes up short no matter how big his fake boots are

[aMorePerfectUnion]

🎼 "$300 Million Spent 🎵 and what do you get?
Deeper in polling X 🎶 and  a very bad bet."

[M. Thatcher]

"99 Counties, Not a Lead in One"

[RedMonqey]

But his voters are “highly motivated”!
🤣😂🤣😂🤣

[BigEdLB]

They also posted enthusiasm for candidate in the poll. Based on the enthusiasm factoir, Haley is way down. How many people will brave minus temps an a blizzard?
Combining all enthusiasms, Extremely, Very, Mildly, and Not, and weighting them 3,2,1,0. you get Desantis back to 2nd. And with predicted weather, and that most Trump caucusers are Extremely (broken glass) Haley isn't gonna get a lot of folks out: The poll had the numbers and I convert to revised pcts. Trump 60.9, DeSantis 15.5, Haley 14.6, Vivek 8.9. I got Vivek's # by using a little bit of algebra. As to very enthusiastic #s, Haley is last of the 4. Imagine Blizzard and 0 degrees at caucus time. Very Enthusiastic numbers would largely apply, with a few verys thrown in...Trump 67.4, DeSantis 13.8, Haley 9.7, Vivek 9.1... how would one of these outcomes affect NH?

[unclebankster]

I’m not a fan of DeSantis, but I doubt he’ll do worse than Haley in Iowa.

[dforest]

He doesn’t look like he is “lovin it” in Iowa right now.

I really can’t blame him for that.

Think how nice it would be back in Florida buddy.

[wiseprince]

I dont want this guy to win but I don’t want Birbrain to beat him. If he drops out at some point would he back Trump or Birdbrain?

[nwrep]

Between Meatball, Birdbrain, and Swindleramy, who knows?

[TBP]

In 1984, 1992, 2004, and 2020, there were Republican incumbents, so you have to take those years out. That leaves 1988, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2016. They've been wrong three of those six times, according to your liberal source. That's a pretty spotty record. The Register is wrong as often as it's right, being generous.