Posted on 11/22/2023 11:36:38 AM PST by ChicagoConservative27
You don’t even need the exotic batteries that EVs need for a golf cart.
“I’ve had that thought as well. There has to be a market for that kind of thing.”
Tesla PowerWall.
Back in the late 70s, I bought a 1969 Cougar for $1000. It had a 351 Cleveland in it. It had been repainted well but under the skin it had issues. I spent an entire Summer visiting a local Pick 'n' Pull or two and replaced anything missing or broken. The triple sequence tail light module, the air pump for the peek-a-boo headlights, the headliner, upholstery, chrome trim pieces, alternator, power steering unit, just tons of stuff.
I drove it for a year and sold it for $5000. It was the Gas Crisis days so I bought a new Chevette. I shoulda kept the Cougar.
Hertz car rental learned this the hard way too. They have to write down tons of asset value in part because a new Tesla is cheaper than the price they paid when they wanted to buy a fleet of them. And repairing them is much more expensive than ICE cars (though Tesla is mass produced at scale at this point). Not only damage to the battery cells, but just about any damage. Spare parts are hard to come by and replace because they are controlled by the manufacturers and in limited supply, with perhaps no after market parts suppliers in many cases. So try to replace a fender, or a tail light, or that computer screen inside, or that compartment where ash trays used to be. You have to buy original from the manufacturer.
The insurance industry is being very tight-lipped right now about the issues with EV’s, but the overall trend is that they are raising rates on them more rapidly than ICE vehicles. They are the only ones that have the true numbers of failures for EV’s.
However, like so many “issues” we face the problem(s) and solution(s) have become highly politicized because there will be political pressure on insurance to meet the goals set by politicians.
It is just a guess on my part but I think the premium increases are probably related to the likelihood that the vehicle will be totaled out for a wreck that might only cost 10k or less to repair at a body shop. As usual, I think Scotty got it right in his video (he is very entertaining).
I am sure that potential loss of a home from a damaged battery weights heavily on the industry too. If I owned a 100k EV I might own a 700k home (with 150k insurance for contents) so if they pay to repair my 100k EV but it later catches fire in my garage they will write a 950k check (plus another problem discussed below in the future) so they may be better off cutting their losses up front.
There is another shoe that may drop on the industry soon and that is the cost for environmental cleanup given that these fires are hazmat incidents and should require specialized cleanup following a fire incident. You typically have 100k on your auto policy for incidental damages and cleaning up one of these will probably use all of that and possibly more depending on the circumstances. In other words, the true cost of a “damaged battery” may be doubled if a fire occurs post-accident.
So if I am the insurance company I can pay 10k to repair the 100k vehicle and cross my fingers no fire occurs, but there is a chance that doing so might cost me over 1000000 later. It’s all based on statistical probability but this is a fair analogy of the problem statement.
While the battery packs in EV’s are robust in some ways they are fragile in others due to the fact that each individual cell (can be thousands and thousands of them) has an electrical connection (soldered) along rows or within separate modules so if you know anything about failure analysis with an electrical system they usually occur at a connection. However, it only takes one internal defect or problem within a single cell or one bad solder and you can get thermal runaway throughout the entire system.
Even a low-speed “fender bender” might do the same internal damage to a battery pack as dropping your 20v battery pack off the roof of your house onto a sidewalk. Is it damaged? You cannot really tell beyond visible damage to the plastic case containing the battery cells. I can foresee that they will address this more in the future but it will raise costs to add this level of monitoring to the battery management system.
The driver sits on top of up to 8000+ thermodynamically unstable lithium battery cells (18650’s) with soldered connections sandwiched within a web of wiring inside a pan underneath the vehicle subject to temperature extremes, vibration or impact (potholes), high speed charging, and heavy discharges and all of this occurs in a flammable solvent inside a metal casing with a separation layer (SEI) between the anode and cathode that scientists cannot even fully explain! Because of this it is safe to say that quality control should be job #1 in this industry! It will be interesting to see how the flood of Chinese EV’s works out.......
Regardless of what you think about the current battery chemistries which have many flaws (the electric motor has many superior qualities) you have to admire the engineering that can make this all work with such a low rate of failure. Think about it - we are storing a maximum amount of electricity (heat) inside a metal cylinder bathed in a flammable solvent and the slightest defect or damage to the smallest internal or external component can cause failure.
When you step back and look at it, the engineering to make these work is amazing. The “fire problem” will always be an issue with the current chemistries and the best way to think of it is a very low incident/high consequence event while ICE vehicles are a very low incident/low consequence event.
Yes he does. And I have been saying this for a long time. If you get in a minor fender bender that would not impact a combustion engine, you could ruin an electric car and pay $20,000 to replace the battery pack. Makes no sense.
Yes he does. And I have been saying this for a long time. If you get in a minor fender bender that would not impact a combustion engine, you could ruin an electric car and pay $20,000 to replace the battery pack. Makes no sense.
Sort of like the Hindenberg?
Led Zeppelin would call themselves Smokey Von Tesla if they burst on the scene today?
Second life batteries such as those you (and politicians) think are suitable to store “green energy” are very problematic.
Due to temperature fluctuations and charge/discharge degradation to the internal chemistry of each individual cell this is incredibly risky business. The “owner” of an EV would not pay up to half the price of a new vehicle to replace a “good battery”. Very few people understand that these batteries cannot last forever the way we use them.
They have an ideal temperature range for use and function best under slow discharge and charging. If you kept the cell at the ideal temperature and babied it they could last for a really long time (nobody knows for sure how long).
However, we don’t use them that way so I remain very skeptical that this “second life” usage to store solar or wind power is a good statistical risk. Few people understand how these really work but putting 40 old EV packs in a metal container means the statistical chance of failure increases by a factor of 40 (in simple terms) and all the damage that occurred in the first life for any of those 40 previously separate battery packs increases the odds of some minuscule internal problem within a single cell or the same on the electrical connections for one pack among 40 and its game over.
Just my .02
I can see it now, The New 2024 Tesla "Albatross"
Comes with free roadside rescue...
I did not fully answer your question above, but regarding “who pays” it is a legitimate concern. The insurance industry has been hammered in recent years with COVID, possible vaccine injuries that have led to increases in mortality, and even wildfires as more people move into the urban-wildland interface.
It would be nice if they “pooled” risks for different groups, but they don’t (outside of life/health insurance). They increase premiums based on their formula’s that are calculated by actuaries using pure numbers (the most honest science there is by the way) so the chances are quite good that you and I will both pay for EV’s just as they are subsidized by our taxes.
thank you again, volunbeer. very instructive, even without a direct answer. happy thanksgiving to you and yours.
Thank you for the very informative post! It was quite interesting!
It should work its way into higher EV insurance costs, but it will also impact ICE insurance costs because any collision that is the ICE drivers fault, their insurer will have to pay to repair the other drivers EV.
Would not the fact that gas cars are 50x more likely to catch fire figure into rates?
“I am sure that potential loss of a home from a damaged battery weights heavily on the industry too. If I owned a 100k EV I might own a 700k home (with 150k insurance for contents) so if they pay to repair my 100k EV but it later catches fire in my garage they will write a 950k check (plus another problem discussed below in the future) so they may be better off cutting their losses up front.”
Statically, ICE cars are 50x more likely to catch fire.
Catching fire is really bad for ev. Not only damages to their own car, but likely being liable for damages to any other property.
And any tiny tap damages the battery. So almost every minor fender bender totals the car.
Yet the market (and insurers) want this?
“It would be nice if they “pooled” risks for different groups, but they don’t (outside of life/health insurance). “
Home insurance is based on many factors. Location, type of construction, damage risks, age ...
Similar for car insurance but also includes driver factors.
Tesla Insurance does a real-time driver evaluation and revises your rate each month.
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