The insurance industry is being very tight-lipped right now about the issues with EV’s, but the overall trend is that they are raising rates on them more rapidly than ICE vehicles. They are the only ones that have the true numbers of failures for EV’s.
However, like so many “issues” we face the problem(s) and solution(s) have become highly politicized because there will be political pressure on insurance to meet the goals set by politicians.
It is just a guess on my part but I think the premium increases are probably related to the likelihood that the vehicle will be totaled out for a wreck that might only cost 10k or less to repair at a body shop. As usual, I think Scotty got it right in his video (he is very entertaining).
I am sure that potential loss of a home from a damaged battery weights heavily on the industry too. If I owned a 100k EV I might own a 700k home (with 150k insurance for contents) so if they pay to repair my 100k EV but it later catches fire in my garage they will write a 950k check (plus another problem discussed below in the future) so they may be better off cutting their losses up front.
There is another shoe that may drop on the industry soon and that is the cost for environmental cleanup given that these fires are hazmat incidents and should require specialized cleanup following a fire incident. You typically have 100k on your auto policy for incidental damages and cleaning up one of these will probably use all of that and possibly more depending on the circumstances. In other words, the true cost of a “damaged battery” may be doubled if a fire occurs post-accident.
So if I am the insurance company I can pay 10k to repair the 100k vehicle and cross my fingers no fire occurs, but there is a chance that doing so might cost me over 1000000 later. It’s all based on statistical probability but this is a fair analogy of the problem statement.
While the battery packs in EV’s are robust in some ways they are fragile in others due to the fact that each individual cell (can be thousands and thousands of them) has an electrical connection (soldered) along rows or within separate modules so if you know anything about failure analysis with an electrical system they usually occur at a connection. However, it only takes one internal defect or problem within a single cell or one bad solder and you can get thermal runaway throughout the entire system.
Even a low-speed “fender bender” might do the same internal damage to a battery pack as dropping your 20v battery pack off the roof of your house onto a sidewalk. Is it damaged? You cannot really tell beyond visible damage to the plastic case containing the battery cells. I can foresee that they will address this more in the future but it will raise costs to add this level of monitoring to the battery management system.
The driver sits on top of up to 8000+ thermodynamically unstable lithium battery cells (18650’s) with soldered connections sandwiched within a web of wiring inside a pan underneath the vehicle subject to temperature extremes, vibration or impact (potholes), high speed charging, and heavy discharges and all of this occurs in a flammable solvent inside a metal casing with a separation layer (SEI) between the anode and cathode that scientists cannot even fully explain! Because of this it is safe to say that quality control should be job #1 in this industry! It will be interesting to see how the flood of Chinese EV’s works out.......
Regardless of what you think about the current battery chemistries which have many flaws (the electric motor has many superior qualities) you have to admire the engineering that can make this all work with such a low rate of failure. Think about it - we are storing a maximum amount of electricity (heat) inside a metal cylinder bathed in a flammable solvent and the slightest defect or damage to the smallest internal or external component can cause failure.
When you step back and look at it, the engineering to make these work is amazing. The “fire problem” will always be an issue with the current chemistries and the best way to think of it is a very low incident/high consequence event while ICE vehicles are a very low incident/low consequence event.
Sort of like the Hindenberg?
Led Zeppelin would call themselves Smokey Von Tesla if they burst on the scene today?
Thank you for the very informative post! It was quite interesting!
“I am sure that potential loss of a home from a damaged battery weights heavily on the industry too. If I owned a 100k EV I might own a 700k home (with 150k insurance for contents) so if they pay to repair my 100k EV but it later catches fire in my garage they will write a 950k check (plus another problem discussed below in the future) so they may be better off cutting their losses up front.”
Statically, ICE cars are 50x more likely to catch fire.
“The driver sits on top of up to 8000+ thermodynamically unstable lithium battery cells (18650’s)”
2 – Cost: The manufacturing time and materials required for the 4680 means productions costs will drop by 56%. We are going to see real competition on the raw sticker price in the window at the local car dealer. Currently, 4,416 (Model 2170 lithium ion) cells are placed inside a Tesla Model 3 or Model Y long-range edition battery packs. In contrast, only 960 cells will be required to fill the same space with the new 4680 Dry-Cell. As an added bonus, Tesla won’t have cobalt in their batteries anymore, that means no more memes about children in the Congo!
https://fcpp.org/2020/12/26/the-tesla-4680-battery-six-things-to-know/
I worked for a company that did a huge amount of EV battery research in the 80s and 90s. Early on, liquid sodium sulphur batteries were thought to are in contention. However, the liquid sodium sulphur had to be kept hot (IIRC, about 700F) and leaks were a serious problem. One test car battery leaked onto the asphalt, caught fire, and burned up the prototype car and the a couple of vehicles on either side of it in the parking lot.
Minor quibble, and I don’t know for certain, but I suspect the 18650s in a battery pack are welded and not soldered.
That’s how they’re connected on most smaller devices, using a somewhat specialized pinpoint welding technique that I assume heats the metal (and the cell) a lot less than soldering would. You can buy DIY setups on ebay for small projects - I assume it’s scaled up on the EVs but uses a similar tech for similar reasons.
Of course, I could be wrong...