My Dad was fond of saying that “they don’t forecast the weather, they just sell it.”
He was on target, as usual.
AI will figure out the pattern
.
EXACTLY!!
Also, they have to contact the NASA, NOAA, and AF to determine what Geo-engineering that they will be performing over the projected two week period.
[[Why Weather Forecasts Are Only Accurate Two Weeks Out]]
oh come on- ‘science’ tells us what the weather will be 7 years from now- you know, when the earth bursts into flames and all life comes to a stop
Weather forecasts are only accurate two weeks out? That’s a boatload right there. They are often accurate a day out, occasionally two days out, but seldom beyond that.
What’s best about that statement is it sorta admits this glowbull warming thing is a hoax. If they have no idea what’s happening two weeks out, just how will they know 10 years out?
C.H.A.O.S.
Chaos theory.
Two weeks? What a joke, it barely is good next day.
Accurate 2 weeks out?
Ha!
Maybe 2 days out.
Unless we’re talking about the Sahara Dessert. “It will be hot and dry for the next 2 weeks. Tune in next week for our next weather forecast.”
That was a load of crap. It is because the models leave out key variables. In reality they mostly just look to what is happening to the west.
There are a lot of comments here about failures in weather forecasting. My perspective is this- Weather is inherently chaotic, and our understanding is limited.
Therefore ren I am constantly amazed by our ability to provide the forecasts we do receive, and how we are able to identify where dangerous weather will strike as oftens as we do.
Meteorologists now make the nearly impossible look easy, then we thank them by complain about when they do get it wrong.
Top men know these things.
Top men.
Actually I think it is, and the answer is that the underlying physics is so chaotice we cannot predict climate since we cannot even predict weather 2 weeks out.
Emanuael and the late Doug Lilly of NCAR and his ilk espoused this stuff for at least four decades now. Then it was preached that deterministic forecast had a valid range of a few days or less, and there was little hope for improvement.
The main problem, other than the governing equations being nonlinear, is an incomplete and less-than accurate description of the initial conditions. This is due to measurement errors and a sparsity of measurements in time and space with wide gaps through the earth’s atmosphere. It is my opinion that the choice of emphasizing satellite technology rather than ground-based technologies have slowed our advancement in achieving a better initial condition.
We are in Ellsworth, Maine and expect high winds and rain.
The amount of rain and velocity of the winds in the forecasts have changed every couple of hours: the last forecast much less rain and wind speed less than predicted.
We were worried about the 60- 70 mph gusts.
Hmmph!!! Must be intentional misinformation.
The entire world knows that Al Gore can predict the weather at least 20 years out
And “Grating Greta” Thunberg can beat tha!.
/s
I don’t see much accuracy two weeks out.