There are a lot of comments here about failures in weather forecasting. My perspective is this- Weather is inherently chaotic, and our understanding is limited.
Therefore ren I am constantly amazed by our ability to provide the forecasts we do receive, and how we are able to identify where dangerous weather will strike as oftens as we do.
Meteorologists now make the nearly impossible look easy, then we thank them by complain about when they do get it wrong.
I’m with you.
I remember vividly, in the 70s, getting rained in when tomorrow’s forecast was for sunshine. Or packing an umbrella and then getting sunshine. Very often.
The accuracy of the 24-48 hour forecast over the past few decades is an unsung benefit of the proper application of science and statistical/numeric forecasting methods. Parenthetically, 1 out of every 4 meteorologists came out of Penn State since the 1980s, and as a Nittany Lion I approve of this message.
The problems have come from these new forecasting godz, who believe their own hype, and go out 5 days or two weeks. It’s like someone getting the gold in the 100-yard dash now thinking he can win the NY Marathon. I ignore those forecasts except to monitor for general trends - and even then it’s a coin toss at best.
Then there’s global warming or cooling or whatever they’re pushing nowadays. These wizards sniff at us little people, “weather isn’t climate.” Maybe. But a vital element in ANY data-driven exercise is consistency and homogeneity in data collection and quality. The improvements in 24-48-hour forecasts are as much a function of good data as it is better techniques. But the temperature and flood etc data from 1979 on backward was collected with little focus in consistency, or accuracy….in fact I bet the margin of error in the old thermometers is within the 1-degree C “rise” in global temperatures they thrust upon is.
Therefore, I applaud meteorologists as they execute their day-to-day job of forecasting tomorrow. There is great value in that activity. But please, you’re a plumber: stop trying to lord over the sewer system.