Posted on 09/09/2023 12:14:02 PM PDT by Reno89519
Is the Republican race for presidential nominee over before any votes are cast? Some people sure would like it to be.
“It’s over!” Trump supporters declare with the assured enthusiasm of a Mets fan at spring training.
This is our year! No unforeseen injuries will cripple our chances! We’re going all the way!
A closer look at the numbers shows a ballgame very much in progress.
There’s no doubt Trump is a unique political phenomenon.
He makes people feel something. They vote with their heart for Trump. He’s magnetic.
But just as magnets attract, they repel.
Yes, Trump is polling far ahead of his competition.
But he also has been president already, has 100% name recognition and is only managing about half his party’s support.
The comparison shouldn’t be to candidates in past elections but to incumbents. And by that metric he’s getting smoked.
If Joe Biden had only 50% of the Democratic Party’s support, he’d be shoved off the stage before Democrats could even figure out how to avoid getting stuck with Kamala Harris.
And most of the polls you see in the news are national polls, and we do not have national elections.
The RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump at 43% in Iowa and 44% in New Hampshire, both states that vote in January.
If a candidate not named Donald Trump manages to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, it will be an entirely new ballgame by the time South Carolina votes the following month. Trump is at 45% there.
...
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
DeSantis isn't even competing for VP since there is no way Trump would pick him.
Sure, $100 and I say we’ll see DeSantis up accepting the nomination at the convention. You for Trump, I presume?
Were you born yesterday?
Welcome to Freerepublic!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20230906_US_Premise2.pdf
He's up one in the latest CNN poll.
You're going to get on the Trump Train or get your ass on the tracks. Conform or be castout.
Is this guy not noticing that they have been trying to “shove Trump off stage” for the Last 7 years? Biden would lose to any challenger which is why the Rats aren’t allowing him to be challenged. RfkJr has 20% and he’s been blocked from all debates they are not allowing him on TV, blocking his channels. No one on the Repuke side, aside from Trump, has 20% support and they are being pushed heavily, given free advertising etc etc. Trump, by contrast is being is getting RJKjr treatment from a media blocking perspective, has DOJ indicted him and the full force of government against him and he’s at close to 60% and has seemed to be on the rise. This article is a joke.
Trump continues to work for each and every vote. He’s campaigning, hitting his opponents (they keep saying he shouldn’t punch down). He’s not taking anything for granted. He post policy videos almost daily.
What?! The incumbent president is Joe Biden. I'd be more inclined to pay attention to your point of view if you understood the definition of a common word such as incumbency.
You are right, the DNC is doing everything possible to keep the ballot focused on Biden. The RNC hasn't quite taken the same tact with Trump, but he's not accepted their terms, so he's left outside. Will they take a stronger stance, time will tell.
Ah, you didn’t read the article. Trump has all the advantages of an incumbent, well most of them. His pick to lead the RNC isn’t doing him any favors, he and his campaign are not calling the shots for the party as an incumbent normally does. He’s a lame duck at best for them with senators and representatives more worried about themselves than supporting Trump.
The impression I get is that many people on FR are actually Democrats here create conflict. I also believe that a goodly number of FReepers are Libertarians.
Libertarians, yes. Democrats, not so much. At least none admit it though it is a frequent accusation leveled at some.
The snowball effect is a psychological term that explains how small actions can cause bigger and bigger actions, ultimately resulting in a big impact.
And considering trumps legal issues this effect will precipitate at a fast pace
Remember , Americans have a one month memory span
Once the ball starts rolling it will have its own energy. Trump is at the top right now and he has nowhere to go but down. It's like stock market that is at the top. A crash is coming to trumps support
It happens in every aspect of life. You have ups and downs , the downs is a crash
Trump will fight like it’s not and he should. It seems that they are going to start pulling funding from Desanctimonius and put a lot more money into Haley. It’ll interesting to see how these Desanctus supporters handle this. Are they going to be willing to back her next? If they aren’t then the vote will be split in Iowa which will help Trump. I suspect Desanctimonius is more formidable in Iowa than Haley who, to my understanding, doesn’t accept that Jesus Christ is the son of the living God. So backing Haley makes it more likely that Trump wins Iowa (in my opinion). If he wins Iowa it becomes more likely that he takes in NH because those who aren’t with him will get worried that they burned the bridge. If he wins NH after winning Iowa it’s hard to see anyone else winning thr NV caucus if they couldn’t beat him in a caucus state that was more suited to them. Trump winning the first 3 states then moving to SC where he’ll have the organization of the Senior Senator puts him in a very strong position. Especially since Scott and Haley will prevent each other from consolidating support. Based on this,y opinion is that the only real chance the Deep State has is going all in on Desanctimonius in Iowa. Not sure why he even bothers going to other states. Iowa is tailor made for him. He has the old Cruz team (who won Iowa). If he loses Iowa he should immediately drop out and back Trump to wrap this thing up and prevent the deep states next play which is trials on Super Tuesday. If Desanctimonius doesn’t then, to me, that is 100% confirmation that he is fully on the side of the deep stater.
1. That isn't what you said. You declaratively said he has the advantage of incumbency. No, he does not, because he is not the incumbent. His advantage is that he is a former president and is massively known to the general public, but that is a far cry from an incumbent's advantage.
2. You said he has ALL the advantages of being an incumbent, then in the same sentence, said "...well, most of them." The truth is he has none because he is not in office now.
What color is the sky in your world?
I agree to some extent
Donors are hedging their bets
So , donors are splitting between Desantis and other candidates not named trump. Haley is one of them.
Many donors don’t want trump and that is fact also.
By hedging their bets the donors are Desantis that he needs a stronger showing in the next debate. He is not stupid. He will come out swinging. He has to. Desantis is smart.
Always blue skies, sunny, and happy. Then again, I’ve always been a glass-half-full guy.
How do you edit a post. I made a mistake in one of my posts but can’t find the edit button
Thanks
You don”t
The mods might. Try the abuse button
Thanks
I’ll let it go , I don’t think people care what I have to say. Lol
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