3% Social Security COLA Predicted for 2024

Kiplingers ^ | 07/28/2023 | ERIN BENDIG

[SeekAndFind]

In 2023, Social Security benefits got an 8.7% COLA, the largest cost-of-living adjustment since 1981. According to the United States Social Security Administration (SSA), "COLAs are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)." So, when inflation starts to cool, that means a lower cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients. Currently, inflation is at its lowest level in two years, dropping to a 12-month rate of 3.0% in June. This is down from 4.0% in May and 4.9% in April. 

David Payne, staff economist from the Kiplinger Letter, forecasts a 3% Social Security COLA in 2024, after this year’s 8.7%.

Last month, the Senior Citizens League, one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan seniors groups, predicted that Social Security COLA for 2024 could be 2.7%. However, despite inflation continuing to slow, the group’s Social Security COLA estimate for 2024 climbed to 3% this month. They found that a COLA of 3% would increase an average monthly benefit of $1,787 by a little more than $53.60.

Based on data from The Social Security Administration, below are the average monthly Social Security benefits for each group of beneficiaries in June 2023, along with estimated averages based on the 3% COLA prediction for 2024. 

Retired workers

• Average monthly benefit: $1,837.29
• Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $1,892.41

Spouses of retired workers

• Average monthly benefit: $893.01
• Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $919.80

Children of retired workers

• Average monthly benefit: $859.79
• Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $885.58

Survivor benefits

• Average monthly benefit: $1,451.85
• Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $1,495.41

Nondisabled widow(er)s

• Average monthly benefit: $1,713.36
• Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $1,764.76

Disabled widow(er)s

• Average monthly benefit: $894.78
• Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $921.62

Disabled workers

• Average monthly benefit: $1,486.42
• Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $1,531.01

Spouses of disabled workers

• Average monthly benefit: $407.63
• Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $419.86

However, these estimates could change as there are three more months of data before the Social Security COLA is officially announced in October 2023.

Social Security COLAs from 2009-2023

Below is a list of every official Social Security COLA, in order from 2023 to 2009. 

• 2023: 8.7%
• 2022: 5.9%
• 2021: 1.3%
• 2020: 1.6%
• 2019: 2.8%
• 2018: 2.0%
• 2017: 0.3%
• 2016: 0%
• 2015: 1.7%
• 2014: 1.5%
• 2013: 1.7%
• 2012: 3.6%
• 2011: 0%
• 2010: 0%
• 2009: 5.8%

[lightman]

All things considered one of the “better” ones...but what will be left after the Medicare part B “adjustment”?

[hardspunned]

I guess we don’t have to worry about inflation next year. We’re covered. There’s no way inflation could possibly top 3%.

[Ben Dover]

Medicare part B is expected to increase 6% or $10 a month more at the lowest tier.

[TomGuy]

My auto insurance has increased 13% in the last year — on a now 5 year old vehicle.

Food costs vary. Some items are still increasing, some are remaining fairly stable, and some are slightly decreasing.

Gas is on the rise again.

The 3% SS? Will there be a Medicare premium increase? That usually takes a good chunk out of most SS increases — 2023 was an exception because of the big chunk in 2022.

[mabarker1]

BKMK

[DAC21]

“auto insurance has increased 13% in the last year — on a now 5 year old vehicle”

Ours in Kalifornia went up 30% July 1st. on a 5 and 13 year old car. It would have been 45% but I tweaked the policy. Homeowners and earthquake Ins as well. IIRC we are paying $900 more between the three Ins. coverages over last year.

[maddog55]

To bad SS wasn’t just for those who worked and paid into it.

[kickstart]

If you believe inflation is 3%, I have a bridge I can sell to you.

[SaveFerris]

[If you believe inflation is 3%, I have a bridge I can sell to you.]

Yep.

Just the soda pop I buy as a 2 liter went from 96 cents to $1.62.

Gee, that seems like a lot more than 3%.

Everything else is up substantially, too.

A couple of months ago my friend and I got BBQ sandwiches with fries. We both got a soda. He got an order of baked beans on the side.

$42.

Yikes.

Ate dinner with the same gentleman last night. 2 orders of Sweet and Sour Chicken. Small eggroll included and white rice. 2 orders of Crab Rangoon. No drinks included on tab as they were complementary.

$40.

I remember when you could eat for $10-$12 a person.

I figured Social Security would go up about 5.9% this year.

Guess we’ll find out.

[Dan in Wichita]

If sharply rising fuel prices continue, that 3% will also increase.

[wardamneagle]

COLA of 3% would increase an average monthly benefit of $1,787 by a little more than $53.60.

$67 equals to (1) one 20 gallon tank of gas in TX right now!
Nuff said.

[entropy12]

I dropped auto collision insurance since 1967.
Saved enough to buy 2 new cars today.

[SaveFerris]

complimentary!!

sigh, autocorrect....

[SaveFerris]

3%

Oh good 👍.

My fuel ⛽ costs have gone up 50%or more

Most of my food costs have gone up 33%-80%

Thanks, Joe!!