MORE EVIDENCE THAT PRIGOZHIN’S MUTINY WAS BACKED BY THE WEST

Got a big belly laugh out courtesy of Bojan Pancevski, a European based correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, who wrote the article, Wagner’s Prigozhin Planned to Capture Russian Military Leaders. He claims to have the inside scoop on how Western intelligence agencies knew in advance that Prigozhin was going full Benedict Arnold, but is so naive that he did not realize he was being fed a fairy tale. He wrote:

Western intelligence agencies also found out early about the plans by Prigozhin, Putin’s former confidant, by analyzing electronic communications intercepts and satellite imagery, according to a person familiar with the findings. Western officials said they believe the original plot had a good chance of success but failed after the conspiracy was leaked, forcing Prigozhin to improvise an alternative plan.

This is a pitiful cover story. It is an insult to your intelligence to ask you to believe that the West’s intel folks discovered that Prigozhin was going rogue by “analyzing electronic communications intercepts and satellite imagery.” Exactly how does “satellite imagery” tell some photo interpreter that a coup is about to happen? Did Prigozhin scribble out his intentions on a big sign and carry it around outside for all to read? Maybe he was trying to recruit some muscle for the trip to Moscow. “Hey, I’m Going to Moscow to Grab Shoigu. Join Me!”

In my experience, coup plotters are careful not to put their plans in writing or to talk openly about them on phones or radios. A genuine coup starts with the assumption by the plotters that they could die if the plan does not succeed. That sobering thought tends to be accompanied by cautious, subdued activity, not reckless bragging or boasting. That includes shying away from the prolific use of texts or emails.

Do you remember the first rule of Fight Club? You don’t talk about Fight Club. Well, the first rule of espionage is that YOU DO NOT REVEAL YOUR SOURCES. Come to think of it, that used to be the cardinal rule of journalism as well. The “official” who fed Pancevski the “secret” account of how intrepid Western intelligence analysts solved the Prigozhin putsch puzzle broke that rule. Looks to me like he was confident that he had a willing tool in Pancevski and could count on him to persuade a gullible public that the CIA is really good at eavesdropping.

The fact that the CIA briefed the Gang of Eight in Congress on Prigozhin’s planned uprising two days prior means that the CIA had information from a human source. It could have been a recruited CIA asset or someone recruited and controlled by a foreign intelligence organization. But someone close to Prigozhin was blabbing. Or maybe it was Prigozhin himself.

I find it noteworthy that the Biden Administration went to extraordinary lengths to insist it knew nothing about the coup and certainly did not encourage it or support it. Oh no. Biden, Blinken and Nuland do not want Putin overthrown by force. Perish the thought.

I think this leak to Pancevski provides additional confirmation that Prigozhin was acting in concert with Western intelligence operatives. What remains unknown is whether Prigozhin was genuinely cooperating with the West or pretending to spy for the West while actually being controlled by Russian authorities. I continue to believe it is the latter. If Prigozhin committed treason then Putin’s decision to go unscathed into exile in Belarus sends the message that you can go after Putin and live. That is not being magnanimous, that is madness.

My read of the Wall Street Journal article is that it is the latest iteration of the West’s covert action to shape public opinion as well as damage control. It is no coincidence that Pancevski is told that other Russian Generals are under a cloud of suspicion:

Made aware of the leak, Prigozhin was then forced to act sooner than planned on Friday and managed to capture the southern Russian city of Rostov, a key command point for the invasion of Ukraine. The ease with which Wagner’s troops took the city of one million that is home to a large military airport suggests that some regular forces commanders could have been part of the plot, according to Western intelligence.

Western officials said they believe Prigozhin had communicated his intentions to senior military officers, possibly including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, commander of the Russian aerospace force. It couldn’t be determined whether Surovikin passed this information on to the FSB, or how the agency found out about Prigozhin’s plans.

Yep, toss Surovikin under the suspicion bus. Why in the world would the CIA or MI6 want to cast doubts on Surovikin? That could weaken him and affect his ability to counter the Ukrainian offensive. Oh, I got it. Never mind. This article is a graphic example that the West is not going to let up in its campaign to destroy Russia regardless of setbacks on the ground in Ukraine. I wonder if Putin, Gerasimov and Shoigu understand that fact.

He claims to have the inside scoop on how Western intelligence agencies knew in advance that Prigozhin was going full Benedict Arnold, but is so naive that he did not realize he was being fed a fairy tale.

The Washington Post and the New York Times are widely believed to act as public relations outlets for U.S. intel agencies. What the government wants to get out to the public, without agency responsibility, it leaks to its favorite outlet and it gets printed. It is not unreasonable that these publications ger their info from someone known to be from an agency.

The fact that the CIA briefed the Gang of Eight in Congress on Prigozhin’s planned uprising two days prior....

The WSJ article states CIA and congressional knowledge of the plan two days prior to liftoff.

Western officials said they believe Prigozhin had communicated his intentions to senior military officers, possibly including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, commander of the Russian aerospace force. It couldn’t be determined whether Surovikin passed this information on to the FSB, or how the agency found out about Prigozhin’s plans.

Here the WSJ article intel source appears to misdirect attention, claiming a lack of knowledge of how the FSB found out about Prigozhin's plans. Why make the effort to misdirect attention from GRU (actually the GU) to FSB? Putin had shitcanned FSB, and put GRU in charge of Ukraine intelligence matters over a year ago.

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-gru-in-charge-ukraine-intel-after-fsb-failures-report-2022-5

Putin sacked the FSB and put the secretive GRU spy agency in charge of Ukraine intelligence after a string of failures, top Russian journalists say
Bill Bostock
Business Insider
May 10, 2022, 6:37 AM CDT

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/24/us-intelligence-prigozhin-putin/

U.S. spies learned in mid-June Prigozhin was planning armed action in Russia
By Ellen Nakashima and Shane Harris
Washington Post
Updated June 24, 2023 at 10:44 p.m. EDT
Published June 24, 203 at 9:09 p.m. EDT
[Excerpt]
U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Putin also was informed that Prighozin was plotting something. And though it is not clear precisely when he was told, it was "definitely more than 24 hours ago," the first U.S. official said.
It remains unclear why Putin did not take action to thwart Prigozhin's takeover of the military command or his move on Moscow.

Here, Putin "definitely" knew "more than 24 hours" in advance.

The original founder of Wagner was a GRU officer, Dmitri Utkin. Prigozhin said Utkin was the master planner of the March for Justice. Virtually all Wagner officers were former GRU officers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PyQnjeJXtM&ab_channel=HistoryLegends

The Truth About Wagner's March on Moscow (Youtube)

one thing that left me wondering was the statement from Prigozhin the night of the insurrection our commander was behind the whole operation he's the best strategist in the world Dimitri Utkin.
[...]
surprise surprise like we've seen in this video, I posted most of Wagner's commanders are also former officers of the GRU and this could explain why Prigozhin said our commander was behind the whole operation, he is the best strategist in the world, talking about the original Wagner Dmitry Utkin. And what do we know about him? Well Utkin served as the commander of the 700 Separate Special Detachment of the GRU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Utkin

Dmitry Valerievich Utkin; (born 11 June 1970) is a Ukrainian-born Russian army officer. He served as a special forces officer in the GRU, where he held the rank of lieutenant colonel. He is alleged to have founded the Wagner Group, with his own call-sign reportedly being Wagner. Utkin has received four Orders of Courage of Russia.

If Putin knew "at least" 24 hours in advance, he could have known since the master planner Utkin, formerly GRU, hatched the plans. Putin could have known the plans before Prigozhin. Assuming the March to Justice went according to plan, Prigozhin remained behind in Rostov and sent most of what he had for men on a parade down the highway to nowhere. Putin did not resist their advance. Rather, the Chechen special forces were dispatched to Rostov where Prigozhin was at. When they got into position, Lukashenko was connected to Prigozhin who had a come to Jesus moment.

It is possible that Prigozhin gave an oscar worthy performance on behalf Putin. That would explain why Prigozhin went to Belarus unharmed, and apparently nobody was charged. An equal explanation is that Prigozhin and Wagner are very popular in Russia. The Russian government did not desire to make martyrs. It was better to have Prigozhin go off into exile. Rather like the lack of prosecutions following the U.S. Civil War. Notable figures such as Jefferson Davis and Robert E. Lee were indicted but never brought to trial.

There seems to be no good reason for the WSJ to speculate about the FSB when the GRU is all over Wagner. In recent days, Putin proclaimed that Wagner had been 100% a Russian government funded organization, the money coming out of the national budget. Wagner was never actually a private organization, but was actually a government organization budgeted under the Ministry of Defense.

As for Prigozhin's support, the vast majority of his officers were former GRU officers and they conspicuously boycotted the event. Maybe they were just patriotic, and maybe they were informed not to participate. It is at least cause to consider that the GRU knew what was going to happen.

When the CIA and the Gang of Eight knew of the planned action two days before it happened, and knew that the Russian government knew, they did not stop Prizozhin but may have speeded up the execution of his plan. In any case, while things appeared to be going well, and Prigozhin's parade proceeded without opposition, some numbnuts took to Agency self-congratulations about its intel and briefing the Gang of Eight in advance. And then Chechen special forces arrived around Rostov and Lukashenko made his phone call. And Mr. Numbnuts realized he had broken the first rule of Fight Club. At a minimum, the leak infers that the CIA, the Gang of Eight, and the President knew in advance of the plan and let it proceed wthout informing Prigozhin that the plan had been busted.

If Prighozin and Putin played the CIA to “out” collaborators” why not crow about it and discourage future defectors?

Russia is famously inscrutable (riddle, enigma) but that is not the sole aspect of Churchill’s observation. His point was that the riddle and enigma is a consequence of Russia’s leadership being utterly sociopathic, and entirely out for itself.

If Putin actually gave a damn about the Russian people the Caucasus would be ahead of Eastern Europe on every development measure. They had the resources to do it, but those resources have been blown on palaces, yachts, soccer clubs, London real estate, private armies and factional infighting. And nukes, because why not waste even more resources on that purely for the bragging rights.

Prighozin is part of that system. So is Putin. The people falling out of windows are on the margins and are therefore expendable no matter how loyal and patriotic they are.

So it’s far more realistic to assume that Russia’s Siloviki, the order at the top of the Kremlin, the Rossiya 1 untouchables and the Prighozin/Girkin/Utkin/Kadyrov guys are serving their own interests within a Five Families style operation.

Doing what’s best for the Families is not the same thing as doing what’s best for Russia, and those bastards all know it.

They’re not “used” as assets, they decide what to allow or not based on personal risk Vs personal reward.

Prighozin probably told Putin he was going to march for better conditions, and accused Shiogu of derailing Wagner PMC operations in Ukraine.

Putin allowed the demo but can’t upset the FSB and GRU applecarts so the price of Prighozin getting what he wanted is giving Shiogu what he wanted.

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