I like my theory best. Prigozhin is working thru covert channels with the CIA and is being used as an asset against Russia. Kinda like they did with Ukraine with Ukrainian assets.
However, Prigozhin is about as loyal to Russia as the come. Him and Putin are 100% devoted to the motherland Russia. Prigozhin is working as a double agent and is actually using the CIA.
If Prighozin and Putin played the CIA to “out” collaborators” why not crow about it and discourage future defectors?
Russia is famously inscrutable (riddle, enigma) but that is not the sole aspect of Churchill’s observation. His point was that the riddle and enigma is a consequence of Russia’s leadership being utterly sociopathic, and entirely out for itself.
If Putin actually gave a damn about the Russian people the Caucasus would be ahead of Eastern Europe on every development measure. They had the resources to do it, but those resources have been blown on palaces, yachts, soccer clubs, London real estate, private armies and factional infighting. And nukes, because why not waste even more resources on that purely for the bragging rights.
Prighozin is part of that system. So is Putin. The people falling out of windows are on the margins and are therefore expendable no matter how loyal and patriotic they are.
So it’s far more realistic to assume that Russia’s Siloviki, the order at the top of the Kremlin, the Rossiya 1 untouchables and the Prighozin/Girkin/Utkin/Kadyrov guys are serving their own interests within a Five Families style operation.
Doing what’s best for the Families is not the same thing as doing what’s best for Russia, and those bastards all know it.
They’re not “used” as assets, they decide what to allow or not based on personal risk Vs personal reward.
Prighozin probably told Putin he was going to march for better conditions, and accused Shiogu of derailing Wagner PMC operations in Ukraine.
Putin allowed the demo but can’t upset the FSB and GRU applecarts so the price of Prighozin getting what he wanted is giving Shiogu what he wanted.