Japan’s grand strategy as a declining power

Nikkei Asia ^

[FarCenter]

...

“Declinism” is an unstated thesis in Japanese domestic debates on its grand strategy, but its influence on the country’s strategic thinking and practices is unmistakable in two respects.

First, Japanese leaders’ imagination about their available military options has stretched as Japan’s self-restraints have eased. Tokyo’s recent decisions to acquire long-range missiles and abolish the 1% of GDP ceiling on defense spending, reversing decades-old policy positions, are examples of Japan’s changing view on the reassurance imperative.

Second, Japanese leaders’ imagination about Japan’s broader strategic options has shrunk. Unlike during Japan’s economic ascent, no members of the Japanese government are entertaining departing from the defense treaty with the United States.

Instead, they emphasize how Japan’s eroding self-restraints will bring Tokyo and Washington even closer together as military allies. A weakened Japan cannot imagine any other option but to embrace the United States, especially in dealing with China’s rising power.

Tokyo’s willingness to strengthen its military alliance with Washington further does not mean Japan simply supports US pushback against China. Despite Japan’s relative material decline, it seeks a comprehensive influence on Washington’s thinking.

Japan’s acquisition of longer-range strike capabilities, combined with the growing geopolitical importance of its location next to Taiwan, is making Tokyo an essential ally for US-China strategy. This allows Japan to seek to have a greater say in strategic discussions and coordination.

As a close ally, Tokyo has also been voicing its concerns about Washington’s democracy-versus-autocracy narrative and signaling its reservations about the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

Tokyo’s attempt to relax self-restraints and expand its influence is not only observable in Japan-US bilateral interactions. The same trend emerged earlier in Japan’s regional economic diplomacy.

The most obvious example is the leading role played by former prime minister Shinzo Abe’s government in saving the Trans-Pacific Partnership after the US withdrawal in 2017. Abe was not constrained by regional suspicions about Japanese ambitions or a desire to avoid any regional political backlash.

As these common trends suggest, Japan’s emergent grand strategy focuses on mitigating the negative impact its diminishing material strength has on its international influence by overturning many longstanding self-restraints.

This emergent grand strategy remains nameless because the country is yet to address many crucial questions before it can be fully described, let alone conceptualized.

One of the main questions is whether Japan can use the elevated influence it anticipates to better manage its tension-prone bilateral relationship with China.

Relaxed self-restraints, a stronger US-Japan alliance and more active regional diplomacy all constitute a signal to Chinese leaders that Japan remains a formidable neighbor, despite its relative decline, and one with which even a vastly superior China must coexist.

To emphasize this “co-existence” message, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government held a summit with China’s leader Xi Jinping and established a direct hotline between the two countries’ defense organizations.

[Gay State Conservative]

If Japan doesn't solve its population problem the decline will be fast and steep. But today “made in Japan” means quality worldwide...particularly in the world's civilized regions. OTOH, “made in China” means cr@p.

[marktwain]

Washington’s democracy-versus-autocracy

Is that state department speak for the United States decent in autocracy?

[marktwain]

If Japan doesn't solve its population problem the decline will be fast and steep.

China's population is shrinking as fast as Japan's, or is very close to it.

[Macoozie]

When they apologize to the world for WWII, begin to make amends for the destruction, their dehumanizing treatment of fellow human beings, and costs to all impacted, and TEACH THEIR CHILDREN about their own evil history, then I might give a shiite about the Yellow Base-tards.

Until then, let the ChiComs take their revenge for what happened to their people and homeland.

It’s gonna be Epic.

[SamAdams76]

Nobody livng in Japan today had anything to do with the atrocities of WW2.

Using your logic, white people in America should apologize for slavery and make reparations. Is that what you are advocating?

[bert]

Japan knows it’s population numbers.

China only has a vague idea. China being corrupt to the bone doesn’t really know it’s population. China knows what the corrupt local yes men tell it.

[mewzilla]

They have something to do with continuing to cover them up.

As do ours.

There’s a reason Unit 731’s atrocities aren’t as well known as Mengele’s.

[mewzilla]

In any case, I suspect this is all moot.

I think the ChiComs have taken over Japan they same way they did Australia, the Solomons, et al...

The ChiComs bought its pols.

[Macoozie]

“Using your logic, white people in America should apologize for slavery and make reparations. Is that what you are advocating?”

Mis-reading what I wrote-

As a Country - not Individuals-
Apologize for Slavery?- America has, over and over again-
Make Reparations? - America has, over and over again-

Japan and Germany? - not so much-

[Gay State Conservative]

Yah,but the difference is that there are still a billion people in China who are forced to work 90 hours a week for $1.25 an hour just to survive.

[Alberta's Child]

I’m trying to imagine where someone must be living to have a mindset like that.

I hope you’re not an American — because you’re posting that slop from a country that makes the Nazis look tame and timid.

[Cronos]

Macoozie Japan and Germany have not apologized

Germany has --

Japan, as I understand it, has - but not anywhere near as evocatively as Germany has

And the "apology" is more a governmental apology for past wrong

"White" people of today are not responsible for the slavery of the past - not in the same way that the institutions of the Japanese and German countries were responsible for atrocities 80 years ago.

For Germany I argue that they have apologized enough - and this coming from someone who lives in Poland (ok, I'm not Polish, but I have family and friends and neighbors here)

[woodbutcher1963]

Even my father who came back from the south Pacific in 1945 on a hospital ship eventually bought a Honda Accord in 1982.

[woodbutcher1963]

China admitted just in the last year that their population had dropped from 1.5 Billion to 1.4 billion.
So, their population dropped 100 million people. Roughly 30% of the population of the USA.

They are in trouble.

[himno hero]

If China was removed from their preferential status at the WTO many of Japan’s problems would change dramatically.

They have technologies the Chicoms dream of.

[himno hero]

If China was removed from their preferential status at the WTO many of Japan’s problems would change dramatically.

They have technologies the Chicoms dream of.

[wgmalabama]

Japan might do well recruiting conservative Americans but that might require slight changes to Japan’s internal policies and that won’t happen. Ant country could copy the USAs constitution and bill of rights, truly enforce the equality under the law and see a major inbound increase migration. I can understand Japan desire to be Japanese even with reduced population. Double edge sword.

[gnarledmaw]

We have a whole pile still fighting Germany because they havent heard that WWII ended.

A chunk of Sniffy Joes Useful Idiots admit that they support starting WWIII because of something that happened to some supposed relatives 100+ years ago.

He certainly would have a lot of company around here.

[Reily]

Did it really drop, or did they just get better at counting it?