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Prepare for Ukraine's counter-offensive to falter
The Telegraph via Yahoo ^ | June 17th, 2023 | Colonel Richard Kemp

Posted on 06/17/2023 12:56:29 PM PDT by Mariner

Nato needs to brace itself for the prospect of Ukraine’s counteroffensive failing to achieve major success. Indeed, so far, Kyiv has attained only limited gains. But those who expected a lightning breakthrough were always going to be disappointed. This is not German panzers against Polish horse cavalry, nor is it American shock and awe against demoralised Iraqi forces in antiquated tanks with no air cover.

Instead, we are seeing something closer to an attritional style of warfare, with attacking forces battering against heavily fortified defences. Current operations are at the stage of reconnaissance-in-force along four separate axes of advance, with Ukrainian units probing Russian positions to identify weak spots that can then be softened up with artillery and exploited by armoured reserve forces. Commandos and partisans are said to be working behind enemy lines to create confusion and disrupt command and control centres. Long range strikes are being used to hit headquarters.

Critical here is deception, attacking in as many areas as possible to keep the Russians guessing where the major thrusts will come. But in war, operations rarely go to plan and the odds are stacked against Kyiv. Russia’s General Valery Gerasimov has had a lot of time and resources to prepare effective defences in multiple lines .The Russians also have numerical superiority in pretty much everything, from men and tanks to, perhaps most critically, artillery.

(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: colonelkemp; colonelrichardkemp; delusionalneocons; delusionalrussians; eurofags4eurowars; gasstationwithnukes; guerrillawarfare; partisans; reality; richardkemp; russofags4eurowars; sabotage; warpigs; wwii; zelenskyqs
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The neocons realize they are in a corner and are desperate to avoid humiliation.
1 posted on 06/17/2023 12:56:29 PM PDT by Mariner
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To: Mariner

Looks like classic ropa-dope to me..
We’ll see ....


2 posted on 06/17/2023 1:01:09 PM PDT by 1of10 (be vigilant , be strong, be safe, be 1 of 10 .)
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To: Mariner

This is the time when they get really dangerous, there is no telling what the Neocons will do to avoid the inevitable.

It’s basically suicide to send minimally trained Ukrainian soldiers with little to no air cover into dug in defenses who know exactly when and where the advances are coming from based on their air assets.

We have 6 months left in 2023, those 6 months will be very interesting.


3 posted on 06/17/2023 1:02:01 PM PDT by srmanuel
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To: Mariner

use guerrilla tactics - thousands of quick raids that take out key Russian infrastructure & personnel bit by bit

it’s cheaper & a lot harder to stop


4 posted on 06/17/2023 1:02:57 PM PDT by canuck_conservative (there would be no more need for NATO, if Russia could just stop attacking its neighbors)
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To: Mariner

I’m really glad our Marine commandant is getting rid of artillery and tanks …. because nobody uses them in modern warfare and we need cyber recon, trannies and pronouns to join the Navy’s push to the modern battlefield.

F’ing clown show. We need LGBTQ space force to REALLY deter Russia and China.


5 posted on 06/17/2023 1:06:18 PM PDT by Dick Vomer (2 Timothy 4:7 "deo duce ferro comitantes" <p><b><i></I></B><P> <img src=""> )
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To: Mariner
This does seem to be what is happening along the front line or grey zone as it is called. Ukrainians are probing into areas where the approaches have been mined and they are forced to either attack over open ground or hug the tree lines to avoid detection.

For the most part, they are getting destroyed.

6 posted on 06/17/2023 1:06:29 PM PDT by The Iceman Cometh (Casey DeSantis? No thanks. I've already voted for too many Bushes.)
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To: Mariner

A very comprehensive article on Ukraine’s failed strategy: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/06/on-the-failure-of-the-ukrainian-counterattack.html#more


7 posted on 06/17/2023 1:06:48 PM PDT by elpadre (nd )
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To: Mariner

Looks like even the hardcore Neocon supporters here are finally realizing that the Russian military is a bit stronger than Uganda’s military.


8 posted on 06/17/2023 1:06:54 PM PDT by BobL
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To: canuck_conservative
use guerrilla tactics

Put yourself to use and dig up some of your Che Guevara t-shirts to donate to the Ukrainians.

9 posted on 06/17/2023 1:08:33 PM PDT by Right_Wing_Madman
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To: Mariner

Time to escalate, which is a real danger. The fools that lead us have invested too much politically to admit defeat. It is finger pointing time.


10 posted on 06/17/2023 1:08:59 PM PDT by kabar
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To: srmanuel

“This is the time when they get really dangerous, there is no telling what the Neocons will do to avoid the inevitable.”

************

VERY good point!


11 posted on 06/17/2023 1:09:59 PM PDT by Starboard
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To: Mariner

Kramer was right.


12 posted on 06/17/2023 1:10:17 PM PDT by McGruff (Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f*** things up - Barack Obama)
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To: Mariner

> The neocons realize they are in a corner and are desperate to avoid humiliation.

But they MUST be humiliated in order to deter this warmongering in the future.


13 posted on 06/17/2023 1:10:45 PM PDT by glorgau
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To: Mariner

Most wars are won based on attrition, I.e., based on who can outlast the other. Absent NATO forces joining Ukraine, Russia has overwhelming resources, which will allow them to win.


14 posted on 06/17/2023 1:11:22 PM PDT by JesusIsLord
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To: Mariner
for a counteroffensive to falter, wouldn't you need an "offensive" to begin with ?

not just Russia defending it's interests and allies in the region ?

15 posted on 06/17/2023 1:12:44 PM PDT by KTM rider (Be Alert Stay Calm Think Clearly Act Decisively )
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To: srmanuel

The Charge of the Light Brigade

Alfred, Lord Tennyson
1809 -1892

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
“Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns!” he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Some one had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley’d and thunder’d;
Storm’d at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.

Flash’d all their sabres bare,
Flash’d as they turn’d in air
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder’d:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro’ the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel’d from the sabre-stroke
Shatter’d and sunder’d.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley’d and thunder’d;
Storm’d at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro’ the jaws of Death,
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wonder’d.
Honor the charge they made!
Honor the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred!


16 posted on 06/17/2023 1:13:22 PM PDT by kabar
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To: canuck_conservative

Reading the comments of a Canadian armchair general is like listening to transvestites bloviating about how it feels to be a real woman.


17 posted on 06/17/2023 1:21:19 PM PDT by wildcard_redneck (Biden will mess up the Ukraine worse than Afghanistan.)
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To: elpadre
His assessment is what I've been reading at other sources round about. But it should not surprise any. Zelensky’s hope for full Nato intervention doesn't look like it's going to be in the pipeline. ...though Zelensky may very well do something to trigger that response...he's certainly indicated a willingness to do so.
18 posted on 06/17/2023 1:26:15 PM PDT by caww (O death, when you seized my Lord, you lost your grip on me......)
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To: Mariner
Russia’s General Valery Gerasimov has had a lot of time and resources to prepare effective defences in multiple lines.

He's running the show so he's corrupt. They'll have better chance if Yevgeny Prigozhin was in charge. But the Russians are not that smart.

19 posted on 06/17/2023 1:28:50 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: JesusIsLord
Russia has overwhelming resources, which will allow them to win

sure, just like they had "overwhelming resources" in their 10-year Afghanistan War ... and yet they still got clobbered

why did they lose there? guerrilla warfare - negated their "overwhelming resources" advantage

Ukraine should use those lessons ...


20 posted on 06/17/2023 1:31:27 PM PDT by canuck_conservative (there would be no more need for NATO, if Russia could just stop attacking its neighbors)
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