Posted on 05/27/2023 4:16:21 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
They call it the “debt wall,” and it is not the kind of wall that protects you. It’s the kind that might collapse and crush your village, or into which you might crash your car. Specifically, it is $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt, owed to banks, pension funds, and insurance companies before the end of 2025, and secured by a national portfolio of office, retail, industrial, and multifamily properties that may not be worth what they were five or 10 years ago when those loans got made. This wall just might blow up in everyone’s face.
The country’s downtown office buildings, as you may have heard, are in particularly dire shape. The return to office has stalled, and many once-vibrant business districts have fallen on hard times. According to data from the brokerage Colliers, almost all of biggest office buildings in Downtown Los Angeles are underwater on their loans—meaning, their owners owe more to the bank than the buildings are currently worth. LA’s office towers have, on average, more than $230 in debt per square foot, Bloomberg’s John Gittelson reports, and the only building to sell this year went for $154 per square foot. That’s a lot of water. The city’s biggest commercial landlord, the Canadian property giant Brookfield, has defaulted on more than a billion dollars of loans this year.
I asked Tomasz Piskorski, a property market expert at Columbia Business School, why we should care if some downtown mogul—or better yet, the shareholders in a publicly traded Canadian office company—takes a haircut on their trophy building. For that matter, why should we care if they have to hand over the keys to the bank? He gave me three reasons: First, because city property taxes will decline with the value of their office districts, prompting the so-called...
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The decay will continue until city leaders provide safety and a better quality of life.
People have tasted what it means to work at home 2, 3 or 4 days a week. They don’t want to commute to the city centers 5 days a week any more. I don’t know how you put that Genie back in the bottle.
The declining city tax base assures that the city leaders will not be able to provide basic city services to assure safety and cleanliness. The “defund the police” movement started the trend and the collapse of city skyscraper values will finish it. I don’t see any way out of this.
Once the $1.5 trillion of city real estate is re-valued at $350-$400 million, there will be massive bankruptcies and bank failures. I don’t think any of us will escape this unscathed.
It’s all because Democrat lunatics scared the pants off everybody with COVID, shut down the economy, and sent people home.
Why do I feel it is all part of the plan to make us cower into submission to the state and its acolytes.
It is the first pandemic to destroy more businesses and government budgets than people.
I sure don’t miss dodging the bums to get to my office.
downtown philly converted to residential years ago except for a few. comcast, IBM, ans some others.
I retired almost six years ago. I don’t miss my office one bit.
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Which they will start to provide once their clients own those downtowns for themselves.
So it isn’t time to that great commercial REIT?
Well, you all wanted to shut everything down because "Orange Man Bad" so this is what you get.
Closing the schools was another well thought out plan. Send the kids home with Chromebooks and "virtual learning" and expose their parents to your woke classroom agenda. Not working out so great, is it?
And the American voter won’t ever connect it to the Leftist policies that created the disaster.
💣
It was the silicon chip that made central office complexes obsolete. crime, high taxes and Democratic mismanagement of course did not help.
Remote work isn’t just killing the suburbs, semi-rural and rural towns in America, by letting liberals move out of the city and work from their home office.
They bring their bullsh*t everywhere they go.
And now, this. Quite possibly, liberals are the most destructive force on the planet
House of Cards
Blame covid.
Blame remote work. As some on here have mentioned, not having to commute is nice.
More importantly, blame liberal policies that allow the homeless to take over downtowns, that allow urban youths to steal and break into cars, all in the name of equity and fairness.
By Woodruff Park in Atlanta, it’s a complete disaster. No matter how much the city has tried to revitalize the area, when you let the homeless walk around like zombies, harassing anyone and everyone, it’s going to have an effect.
Years ago, I spoke to a woman who was from DC and whose husband was a DC cop. She commented to me how many and how aggressive the homeless were in downtown Atlanta. That was about 20 years ago and it’s only gotten worse.
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