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Are people still using polls to determine Trump’s electability?
American Thinker ^ | 04/28/2023 | James Swofford

Posted on 04/28/2023 6:56:31 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

There has been a little boomlet recently of talk about how Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is more electable than former President Donald Trump. I have heard this discussion on podcasts, I have read tweets and articles on electability and I have heard electability discussion on talk radio. The genesis of this discussion seems to be a poll of registered voters commissioned by the Wall Street Journal showing DeSantis leads Biden by 3 points, while Trump trails Biden by 3 points.

Ignoring the issue of registered voters rather than likely voters, those are some interesting poll results to some people. At least some people seem to think it indicates something about Donald Trump’s electability. Those people must have short memories.

This is the same Donald Trump who polls said had no chance to win the 2016 presidential election. The winner of the 2016 election was of course Donald Trump. This is the same Donald Trump that polls said was going to be blown out in the 2020 presidential election. That election was so tight the counting dragged on for days until Joe Biden was declared the winner 3 days after the election.

Specifically, in 2016 the final Real Clear Politics average of polls had the Trump vote 3.9 percentage points lower than his final tally. Similarly, in 2020 the final Real Clear Politics average of polls had the Trump vote 3.6 percentage points lower than the final total. (One is welcome to argue and maybe would be right that the 2020 vote totals are suspect, but for sake of this discussion I am ignoring that.) Even more specifically the last NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in 2016 had Trump trailing by 5-percentage points while their last poll in 2020 had Biden with a 10-percentage points behind!

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2024; electability; oyveyron; paulryansboy; polls; trump; trump2024
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To: unclebankster

unclebankster wrote: “Why don’t you ask suburban woman, independents, & Biden Republicans that question? “

The question (Have you enjoyed the Biden presidency?) was directed towards a poster who said they would only vote for Trump. Failing to vote for the republican nominee is a vote for Biden.


21 posted on 04/28/2023 8:25:16 AM PDT by DugwayDuke (Most pick the expert who says the things they agree with.)
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To: DugwayDuke

Got it.

Thanks.


22 posted on 04/28/2023 8:42:06 AM PDT by unclebankster ( Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.)
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To: DugwayDuke

I get what you’re saying, but think your chastising an “only Trump voter” misses the reality of recent history.

Trump was the nominee in 2016 & 2020. The Trump voter stuck with Trump. In 2024 he is the likely nominee.

In 2016 and 2020 you had Republicans leaders & voters, voting for Clinton, Biden, and 3rd parties.

So the Trump voter “making threats” is worse than actual Republicans bailing on the nominee in 2016, 2020, & 2024?


23 posted on 04/28/2023 8:56:36 AM PDT by unclebankster ( Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.)
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To: unclebankster

unclebankster wrote: “I get what you’re saying, but think your chastising an “only Trump voter” misses the reality of recent history. ... So the Trump voter “making threats” is worse than actual Republicans bailing on the nominee in 2016, 2020, & 2024?””

The point is anyone not voting for the Republican nominee is voting for the Democratic nominee.


24 posted on 04/28/2023 9:02:31 AM PDT by DugwayDuke (Most pick the expert who says the things they agree with.)
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To: ridesthemiles

How can anybody hate the country that much is staggering.


25 posted on 04/28/2023 9:17:04 AM PDT by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: napscoordinator

How can anybody hate the country that much is staggering.

**************

True statement.

W Bush, Jeb Bush, Romney, McCain, Kasich, Sasse, suburban women, independents, Biden Republicans, etc

“All hate our country.”


26 posted on 04/28/2023 9:43:54 AM PDT by unclebankster ( Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.)
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To: ckilmer
There is no path to the presidency for any republican

The very fact that they have gone full bore commie with no attempt to disguise it, tells me they are very, very sure they can not lose. Even worse they are sure they can defeat any attempted insurrection with their woke military.

27 posted on 04/28/2023 9:50:22 AM PDT by itsahoot (Many Republicans are secretly Democrats, no Democrats are secretly Republicans. Dan Bongino.)
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To: unclebankster

Give it a break. McCain is dead five years. He caused about the same with Reagan and his love of amnesty. Thankfully none of the others mentioned signed an amnesty bill like Reagan did.


28 posted on 04/28/2023 10:05:26 AM PDT by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: DugwayDuke; ridesthemiles
Have you enjoyed the Biden presidency?

If Trump can't win, no one can, so peddle the discontent somewhere else.

29 posted on 04/28/2023 10:11:07 AM PDT by itsahoot (Many Republicans are secretly Democrats, no Democrats are secretly Republicans. Dan Bongino.)
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To: itsahoot

itsahoot wrote: “If Trump can’t win, no one can, so peddle the discontent somewhere else.”

I doubt that very much. Just about any Republican, except Trump, would demolish Biden. Trump has too much baggage and there are too many who would vote for anyone except Trump.


30 posted on 04/28/2023 10:15:15 AM PDT by DugwayDuke (Most pick the expert who says the things they agree with.)
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To: DugwayDuke
The point is anyone not voting for the Republican nominee is voting for the Democratic nominee.

So you are ok with losing those votes with anyone but Trump? Got it. By the way I will not vote for anyone but Trump so campaign accordingly.

31 posted on 04/28/2023 10:31:28 AM PDT by itsahoot (Many Republicans are secretly Democrats, no Democrats are secretly Republicans. Dan Bongino.)
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To: napscoordinator
How can anybody hate the country that much is staggering.

Apparently you do or you would be supporting Trump not some deep stater like Bush.

32 posted on 04/28/2023 10:33:33 AM PDT by itsahoot (Many Republicans are secretly Democrats, no Democrats are secretly Republicans. Dan Bongino.)
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To: Skeptical constituent
There will be no republican elected president in 2024 and beyond unless things change, which they won’t.

At some point a "Republican" will have to be elected just to keep the scam going a while longer. There will, of course, be no substantive changes in governance.

33 posted on 04/28/2023 10:36:48 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
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To: itsahoot

itsahoot wrote: “So you are ok with losing those votes with anyone but Trump? Got it. By the way I will not vote for anyone but Trump so campaign accordingly.”

My point is vote for whoever you want in the primary but vote for the republican nominee in the general. Anything else is a vote for Biden.


34 posted on 04/28/2023 10:54:10 AM PDT by DugwayDuke (Most pick the expert who says the things they agree with.)
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To: itsahoot

I’ll support trump if he gets the nomination.


35 posted on 04/28/2023 4:55:18 PM PDT by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: DugwayDuke
Anything else is a vote for Biden.

Nope anything other than a vote for Trump is a vote for Biden/Deep State' agenda because if Trump doesn't win the nomination it will be because the election was rigged and the GOPe was in on it.

36 posted on 04/29/2023 4:21:33 PM PDT by itsahoot (Many Republicans are secretly Democrats, no Democrats are secretly Republicans. Dan Bongino.)
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To: itsahoot

itsahoot wrote: “Nope anything other than a vote for Trump is a vote for Biden/Deep State’ agenda because if Trump doesn’t win the nomination it will be because the election was rigged and the GOPe was in on it.”

In the primaries vote for Trump, but if he’s not the nominee then vote for who is. Anything else is a vote for Biden.


37 posted on 04/29/2023 4:57:45 PM PDT by DugwayDuke (Most pick the expert who says the things they agree with.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Who is leading in the key battlground states?

Most recent battleground state polls from fivethirtyeight.com

Arizona:

Biden 45% -- Trump 44%
DeSantis 48% -- Biden 42%

Georgia:

Biden 44% -- Trump 43%
DeSantis 47% -- Biden 46%

North Carolina:

Biden 45% -- Trump 43%
DeSantis 44% -- Biden 41%

Nevada:

Biden 46% -- Trump 45%
DeSantis 44% -- Biden 41%

Michigan:

Biden 45% -- Trump 42%
DeSantis 45% -- Biden 43%

Pennsylvania:

Biden 46% -- Trump 42%
DeSantis 45% -- Biden 42%

Wisconsin:

Biden 47% -- Trump 44%
DeSantis 46% -- Biden 46%

Virginia:

Biden 47% -- Trump 46%
DeSantis48% -- Biden 43%

38 posted on 04/29/2023 5:05:49 PM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024. A real conservative.)
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To: Drew68

Ignore the polls, it’s HOW THE VOTES ARE COUNTED that will once again determine the next President.

2020 and 2022 have already set the precedent.


39 posted on 04/29/2023 5:14:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
2020 and 2022 have already set the precedent.

So, why push Trump if it’s already accepted he’s going to lose?

Shall we again do the same thing in 2028? 2032?

40 posted on 04/29/2023 5:20:09 PM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024. A real conservative.)
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