[BroJoeK]

AngelPark: "I will say the only thing I've learned for certain, as I've said many times (and have believed since the fall of the Soviet Union, and the Gulf War), Russia doesn't have the vaunted military our Military-Industrial Complex led us to believe.
They are Third World, at best."

I am 100% pro-Ukrainian, and for exactly that reason, I would never underestimate the Russians.
Here are some key points to remember about Russia:

1. First & foremost, Russians are not stupid, they learn as fast as anyone else just what works and what doesn't work.
   In due time, they will figure out how to win.

2. Russia is a huge country with almost unlimited natural resources and three times the population of Ukraine.
   If they put their minds & backs into it, they will build an awesome conventional military force.

3. Economically, I see conflicting reports on whether Western sanctions against Russia have actually done damage.
   I suspect not, but we have forced Russians to realign their economy away from the West and more towards the East, notably China, India, Pakistan and Iran.
   And, if I understand correctly, higher energy prices have more than paid for the costs of war in Ukraine.
   So Vlad is profiting from his invasion of Ukraine.

4. My understanding (I could be wrong) is that Russia has held in strategic reserve two thirds of its military, including its best units.
   These are to protect the 12,000+ miles of Russian borders that are not with Ukraine.

5. No military, no matter how well equipped & trained, can become a true fighting force without the hard lessons learned in actually fighting.
   Both Russia and China have awesome militaries -- on paper, on the parade grounds -- but neither has been seriously tested in battle in a very long time.
   So, Ukraine is Russia's trial by fire and, even if they lose Ukraine, the Russian military will come out of it much stronger and better prepared for their next invasion.

   The historical example here is, the Russian army which could barely defeat the Finns in 1939 was somehow able to (barely) withstand the German onslaught in in 1941, before becoming a world war winning force in, circa, 1943.

6. Off-setting that, presumably, so will the E.U. and NATO be better much prepared next time.

[AnglePark]

...before becoming a world war winning force in, circa, 1943.

The only reason Russia defeated Germany on the Eastern Front is because Hitler chose to fight on multiple fronts. Had he chosen to concentrate his forces we would have a different history today. The Red Army was bad then, and it's bad now.

[Vermont Lt]

“The historical example here is, the Russian army which could barely defeat the Finns in 1939 was somehow able to (barely) withstand the German onslaught in in 1941, before becoming a world war winning force in, circa, 1943.”

---

I think its important to keep in consideration that the victory on the Eastern Front in WWII was a combination of lots and lots of Russian soldiers and lots and lots of American and British aid.

To make an “apples to apples” comparison you need to fill in the second part of the equation: What “white knight” is going to come to the aid of the Russian Army? China, North Korea, and Iran? That might work somewhat (and the Ukraine war IS smaller..so it might work.).

In WWII there were few embargoes on goods going into the Soviet Union. There are still trickles of goods coming in through back channels, but in the amounts to take on a NATO supplied Ukraine.

What I don’t understand is why the Russians haven’t gone full “Red Army” on Ukraine.

99% of what he read and hear is propaganda from one side or the other. If you pick out the 1% truth on both sides there are more questions about the Russian failure to really advance than there are about Ukrainians fighting to defend their homeland.

Time will tell.

[Cronos]

hi BroJoeK - just to your points

1. “Russians are not stupid” — no, they “in general” aren’t. But you need to remember that Putin has ruled over them for 22 years crushing any dissent. The smart Russians have left or are languishing in gulags.

The fact is that we’ve seen the Russian military over the past year NOT learn from their mistakes. It is incredible to watch, but they just aren’t changing their losing tactics and have no strategy

2. “Russia is huge... if they put their minds, they will build...” — it is not that simple. Even if they have all of the materials, it is impossible to build without the smart people — see #1 above — you can’t reverse engineer a jet fighter if you look at the composite materials, it is impossible to recreate by just looking at it, even if they do know what were the conditions, it is near impossible

3. “forced Russia to realign towards the east” - this is not that easy if you consider that 90% of Russia’s population is in Europe, not Asia. They have sold materials at a discount to Asian countries, but they don’t have the pipelines to do it continuously.

Vlad is not profiting considering that they are selling at 40% + discounts to India and China.

4. “Russia has held in strategic reserve..” — no, it has not. It sent in its elite units at the start of the war, then they were crushed and the Russians tried partial mobilization, which failed. Then they recruited criminals.

Russia does not have a reserve, this is visible in the way they are unable to make any movements and at the same time they are unable to even protect their homelands (see that the Duma has told businesses that they have to protect themselves from drones)

5. “Ukraine is Russia’s trial by fire” — that would be only if Russia learnt from its errors. It has not

6. “Russia... Finns... World Winning force” — actually this was due to Nazi Germany over-extending itself AND the American lend-lease.

[PIF]

4. My understanding (I could be wrong) is that Russia has held in strategic reserve two thirds of its military, including its best units.
These are to protect the 12,000+ miles of Russian borders that are not with Ukraine.

—
You are. NG troops answer directly to Putin, and are not RGF, they are poorly trained for any military action and are only fit to sit in guard shacks and eat snacks, rousing themselves to chase the occasional smuggler.

All his best troops were committed early on and then wiped out. All that remains in the Far East are NG border guards, not RGF forces.

90% of all RGF forces are in Ukraine - the other 10% are rotated out.

==
5...... even if they lose Ukraine, the Russian military will come out of it much stronger and better prepared for their next invasion.

—
The idea is that there will be no next time.

[Cronos]

This is Russia's population density map - as you can see, it is purely Europe based

Then if you look at the pipelines, it is relatively short distances to Europe, but look at the unfinished pipelines to China

[tlozo]

My understanding (I could be wrong) is that Russia has held in strategic reserve two thirds of its military, including its best units.

Estimates I have seen is that +90% of Russian combat forces are in Ukraine.

the Russian military will come out of it much stronger and better prepared for their next invasion.

Corruption and low morale are the two problems endemic to the Russian military. How will they be overcome?

Russia Has Deployed 97% of Army in Ukraine but Is Struggling to Advance, U.K. Says

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-has-deployed-97-of-army-in-ukraine-but-is-struggling-to-advance-u-k-says-91086284

[Boogieman]

“First & foremost, Russians are not stupid, they learn as fast as anyone else just what works and what doesn’t work.”

Stupidity isn’t the only reason that people fail to adapt. In fact, when it comes to large groups of people, it’s probably the least common reason. Institutional resistance, for example, is a much more common reason, and Russia has that in spades.