hi BroJoeK - just to your points
1. “Russians are not stupid” — no, they “in general” aren’t. But you need to remember that Putin has ruled over them for 22 years crushing any dissent. The smart Russians have left or are languishing in gulags.
The fact is that we’ve seen the Russian military over the past year NOT learn from their mistakes. It is incredible to watch, but they just aren’t changing their losing tactics and have no strategy
2. “Russia is huge... if they put their minds, they will build...” — it is not that simple. Even if they have all of the materials, it is impossible to build without the smart people — see #1 above — you can’t reverse engineer a jet fighter if you look at the composite materials, it is impossible to recreate by just looking at it, even if they do know what were the conditions, it is near impossible
3. “forced Russia to realign towards the east” - this is not that easy if you consider that 90% of Russia’s population is in Europe, not Asia. They have sold materials at a discount to Asian countries, but they don’t have the pipelines to do it continuously.
Vlad is not profiting considering that they are selling at 40% + discounts to India and China.
4. “Russia has held in strategic reserve..” — no, it has not. It sent in its elite units at the start of the war, then they were crushed and the Russians tried partial mobilization, which failed. Then they recruited criminals.
Russia does not have a reserve, this is visible in the way they are unable to make any movements and at the same time they are unable to even protect their homelands (see that the Duma has told businesses that they have to protect themselves from drones)
5. “Ukraine is Russia’s trial by fire” — that would be only if Russia learnt from its errors. It has not
6. “Russia... Finns... World Winning force” — actually this was due to Nazi Germany over-extending itself AND the American lend-lease.
You keep a close eye on this area, so I have a question.
Russia has satellites, drones, manned flights, and boots-on-the-ground reconnaissance plus counter-battery radar in Ukraine, yet they have failed to remove a single Himar.
The wily Ukrainians are clearly on the ball.
Agreed, I would only remember, it was nearly four years from the Soviet failures in Finland, 1939, to their successes against the Wehrmacht in 1943.
In those four years the Soviets learned what worked & didn't, and they also came to rely on very important Allies, the Brits & Americans.
I think, in another three years the world will be realigned and Vlad the Invader will be more dependent on the Xi-snake than on any western economy.
Cronos: " it is not that simple. Even if they have all of the materials, it is impossible to build without the smart people — see #1 above "
First, I highly doubt if Russia has lost all its smart people, and second, even if they did, the Xi-snake has millions he could easily loan to Russia, at a "reasonable" price.
Cronos: " this is not that easy if you consider that 90% of Russia’s population is in Europe, not Asia.
They have sold materials at a discount to Asian countries, but they don’t have the pipelines to do it continuously. "
All of that is easily corrected with new pipe lines, rail lines and roads -- just the sorts of infrastructure China is eager to invest in.
Cronos: "Vlad is not profiting considering that they are selling at 40% + discounts to India and China. "
But still at a price much higher than before he invaded Ukraine.
Cronos: " no, it has not.
It sent in its elite units at the start of the war, then they were crushed and the Russians tried partial mobilization, which failed.
Then they recruited criminals. "
I've seen nothing to suggest that even on third of Russia's prewar military is committed in Ukraine.
Vlad's reserves today are equivalent to those Stalin held back in Siberia for the defense of Moscow -- only to be released when he was certain of no future Japanese invasion.
Cronos: " Russia does not have a reserve, this is visible in the way they are unable to make any movements and at the same time they are unable to even protect their homelands (see that the Duma has told businesses that they have to protect themselves from drones) "
The Russian way of war requires huge reserves.
Just because we haven't seen them doesn't mean Vlad doesn't have them and our own intelligence people don't know exactly what & where they are.
Remember, Stalin held back his eastern reserves until German offensive energy waned at the gates of Moscow.
Only a fool would fritter away his strategic reserves trying to overrun Bakhmut.
Cronos: " that would be only if Russia learnt from its errors. It has not "
Maybe not, not yet.
Cronos: " Russia... Finns... World Winning force” — actually this was due to Nazi Germany over-extending itself AND the American lend-lease. "
For sure, those helped, but it was still Russians who planned & executed the fighting.