Posted on 02/15/2023 6:35:59 PM PST by Golden Eagle
There's been a lot of talk among Republicans about the effect a big primary field might have on the 2024 presidential nomination race. The short version is that a big field is thought to benefit former President Donald Trump, who, as in 2016, would not have to win a majority of votes to win — a plurality, and not even a big one, would be enough. On the other hand, a small field, especially a one-on-one matchup with another candidate, say Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), might allow the challenger to defeat Trump.
But now, a new poll suggests some of those concerns might be unfounded and that Trump could be in danger of losing no matter the size of the field. Done by the Republican firm OnMessage for the social conservative group American Principles Project, the survey questioned 1,000 likely Republican voters nationwide. The pollsters asked about a large field race, 14 candidates, and they also asked about a two-man, Trump vs. DeSantis race.
The question was simple: "If the 2024 Republican primary election for president were held today and the candidates were Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, for whom would you vote?" DeSantis had a solid lead over Trump — 53% to 38%, with 8% undecided.
So then pollsters asked voters about a big field, 14 candidates, that more closely resembles the fields from past GOP primary elections. In that scenario, Trump and DeSantis were essentially tied, Trump with 34% and DeSantis with 33.5%.
The news is that even with a big field that would supposedly help him, Trump had no lead. And after the two leaders came a big falloff, with Mike Pence at 6.3%, Nikki Haley at 5.5%, Mike Pompeo at 3% …
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
LOL
Byron York and the GOPe gaslighting poll. Donald Trump will lose no matter what!!! lol. This has been claimed so often by Never-Trumpers that it is comical.
These clowns made these exact same claims for many months leading up to 2016. The difference is, in 2016 Trump voters voted on faith. In 2024 voters will be voting on the results of President Trump’s policies in their lives and the disaster that is the Dem economy since 2020.
There’s other recent polls showing similar results.
Desantis, Trump Are Main Focus of GOP Voters for 2024
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_020923/
When asked who they would like to see as the Republican nominee for president in 2024, GOP voters come up with two names as top-of-mind preferences – DeSantis (33%) and Trump (33%). Any other potential contender is mentioned by just a handful of poll participants – including former Vice President Mike Pence (2%), former South Carolina Gov. and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (1%), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (1%), Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (1%), and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (1%).
When the two candidates are placed in a hypothetical head-to-head match, though, DeSantis comes out on top by a 53% to 40% margin, including a slight 49% to 46% edge among those who call themselves “strong Republicans.” DeSantis is preferred over Trump among nearly every major voting bloc in the party, with the notable exceptions of those earning less than $50,000 a year (38% DeSantis to 53% for Trump) and those age 65 and older (43% to 49%).
“There’s other recent polls showing similar results.”
Monmouth polls? Really? Please do some research on the HISTORY of the ACCURACY of Monmouth polls wrt to Presidential Elections. Primaries and the General. While you are at it research Monmouth’s political leanings.
As a “shoot some one on 5th Avenue” Trump supporter, I want DeSantos to quit being a little bitch pussy & declare his political 2024 intentions.
Instead he’s beating up woke in a republican state and being a “coy boy.”
For the Free Republic record, unlike some Trump supporters I want DeSantos in the 2024 field so Orange Man can have a little bit of competition.
For now I support both, I want both to be as strong of candidates as possible, and then, may the best man win.
I was just looking at that., as polls can be all over the place of course.
In 2016, they had Clinton ahead by 6, but collapsing down from 18, so they were correctly identifying the trend:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_110716/
In 2020, they had Biden ahead by 4, which was the final result:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_fl_102920/
In 2022, they had Fetterman beating Oz:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_110222/
Warnock beating Walker:
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ga_102622/
I didn’t see where they ran any polls for Kari Lake or JD Vance, but if you have any examples of where they may have been off recently please share.
Per State of Florida law, as Governor Ron DeSantis isn’t allowed to declare any intention to run for any other office, without first resigning, or being removed from office. That law may be changed later this year when the legislature meets, or, it may not. But he’s not resigning, I can assure you that.
I think that way about Trump and Haley, who now is actually running.
Except near the end of her announcement speech she said “Let the better woman win.” Hahaha.
Fer Sure.
I wouldn’t piss in her ear if her head was on fire!
LOL
I’ve read your posts here for years, and you’re USUALLY very bright ....
Byron York gaslighting his zzz off. 😆
Challengers just in it for the money get paid to talk.
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