Posted on 02/09/2023 4:06:27 PM PST by thegagline
How many body bags are the Russians bringing with them or are they just going to abandon their dead like they did last year?
Russia is bringing up their unstoppable force of T-34 and T-55 tanks.
It’s been explained to me by someone knowledgeable as follows.
By Spring, Ukraine will receive 70,000 trained and equipped armored forces. This includes Bradley’s, the tanks are a newer addition.
That force will make a major difference and allow Ukraine to begin to roll the Russians back. A process that could take 1 to 2 years to complete.
Meanwhile, Russia is trying to act before those new Ukrainian forces are ready.
Russia has major logistics problems and has always lacked an adequate road system to move supplies.
To some extent, the 500k new soldiers become a logistics burden for Russia. They need to be trained, equipped and fed.
Was I convinced the Russian offensive won’t succeed? Nope. There’s a big roll of the dice coming on both sides.
America has been telling the Ukrainians to pull back to more defensible lines and wait for their new armored units to arrive.
Ukrainians have built lines of defense but are trying to hold the forward areas, such as in Backmut.
America is also telling Ukraine to adopt highly mobile armored attacks that can exploit Russian weak spots.
I think that’s a fair assessment. I don’t pretend to predict an outcome.
Seems to me we need to be rushing supplies in now to meet this Russian offensive. Perhaps we are. NATO for the most part has made a major commitment and has excellent intelligence capability.
I don’t think aircraft will be ready for this round. The armored units are the key.
They have lots more. Literally acres of old stuff from WW-2 that is still in good enough condition to deploy. Tens of thousands of units. They aren't very good, but they can get them to the front. They don't care if it all gets whacked. And they have more men than the Ukrainians do. The Russians have at least an 8:1 advantage. And they don't care if the men get whacked either.
Quantity has a quality all its own.
Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition. Even if the Russians are terrible soldiers, there are too many of them. Other tactics and strategies will be required, and it is very late.
You are seriously ignorant or just make $**t up as you go.
It's rather well-known thay Russia has literally thousands and thousands of tanks, APCs and armored vehicles. It's their doctrine and has been.
Which is why some of us are confused as to why we'd even bother sending a few dozen scaled-down M1s and Bradleys. Even if they could get them up keep them running, they won't do any good.
But our (neocon) doctrine is just scream and throw money and arms - then fail miserably after a lot of death and spent money.
—> Seems to me we need to be rushing supplies in now to meet this Russian offensive
No. We need to negotiate peace.
And failing that… the EU should completely take over every dimension of this foolishness.
The Brits talk a big game but have decided not to send the planes. They want us to do their fighting. Hell no.
People. They’ve had a whole year to take over the country. Think it’s gonna happen now?
not hitting their marshaling yards this time is problematic...
Beggers can’t be.....well, beggers can only be beggers.
Not to be a buzzkill...but when this whole thing began, why wasn’t Kiev the first target?
Take it, kill Zelensky and imprison/execute the government should have been the first priority.
"Chancellor Scholz! It's Putin on the line. He's saying something about Königsberg?"
My guess is that they are going to take defensive positions in Crimea and attack from the east. Ukraine and its allies have hinted strongly at an attempt to retake Crimea. So, Russia will try to fortify it and have a left flank to attack any attempts to move on Crimea.
If I am correct in my thinking, it may mean Russia is shifting strategies to holding positions rather than taking more. Which would be a good thing and could bring us all closer to a negotiated settlement... one that would in all likelihood shape up to look like the one Elon Musk proposed several months and $100 billion dollars and 100,000 casualties ago.
According to Forbes, Russia had between 10000 and 12000 tanks at the start of the war and lost around 100-1500 since. Im sure they can bring another 3-4000 tanks to the front.
Your post, I believe to essentially be correct.
Poland is a member of NATO, unlike Ukraine.
If Putin attacks Poland he attacks NATO.
Things go from being a proxy war against the US and NATO to a real war against the US and NATO.
That ain’t gonna happen
You might have to explain your comment. Meanwhile I am certain Canadian schools teach the concept of hyperbole in English class.
Too many of us know the truth.
It a shame so many are still living in the the 70s and 80s
“My guess is that they are going to take defensive positions in Crimea and attack from the east.”
Correct.
The push will be from the east, mobile units in the south and north, rail lines, infantry and artillery in the central Donbas.
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