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Vladimir Putin is about to make shock gains
The Telegraph via Yahoo ^ | February 7th, 2023 | Colonel Richard Kemp

Posted on 02/07/2023 12:40:52 PM PST by Mariner

With Russia back on the offensive after significant Ukrainian combat successes around Kharkiv and Kherson in the second half of 2022, the past few weeks have been the bloodiest so far of an already bloody war, with both sides taking extraordinarily heavy casualties. Expect it to get worse.

Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov says Russia has mobilised “much more” than 300,000 troops, perhaps up to half a million, and these are pouring into Ukraine in preparation for what is expected to be a major offensive in the coming days and weeks. Although Kyiv has also been building up its forces and supplying them with modern equipment donated by the West, Putin has a much greater advantage in troop numbers than he did when he invaded a year ago. Despite repeated optimistic reports of Russia running low on artillery shells – a battle winner in this conflict – Putin’s war stocks are vast, and his factories have been working around the clock to churn out even more.

Under pressure towards the end of last year, Russia withdrew its forces to positions of strength, trading ground for time as it massed resources for a planned hammer blow while grinding down the Ukrainians in the east, softening them up for the assault to come. Much of this has been done by infantry attack, throwing away “expendable” troops in time-honoured Russian style. The Kremlin has at the same time been conserving artillery shells (though expending thousands each day around Bakhmut alone) and the armoured vehicles that are so essential for the fast-moving blitzkrieg Putin is planning.

(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: escalatingfornothing; kempwantsaworldwar; neverwasourwar; notourwar; russianretreat; russianrhetoric; timewilltell; ukraineundone; wontbeourwarnextyear
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Circa 1990 I read the USSR had approximately 300 million 152mm artillery rounds in stock.

How much is left is anybody's guess.

1 posted on 02/07/2023 12:40:52 PM PST by Mariner
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To: Mariner

If Russia is going to make any significant land gains, they had better hurry up before the spring thaw turns the Ukrainian ground into mud.


2 posted on 02/07/2023 12:43:03 PM PST by Yo-Yo (Is the /Sarc tag really necessary? Pray for President Biden: Psalm 109:8)
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To: Mariner

“throwing away “expendable” troops in time-honoured Russian style.”

I’ve heard this a hundred times but I don’t think it’s true. Certainly as it pertains to the situation in US backed former state of Ukraine. It’s false and fake news. The exact opposite is true.


3 posted on 02/07/2023 12:45:02 PM PST by Chunga85 (An arrogant govt combined with an ignorant population is a recipe for disaster.)
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To: Mariner

if Russia could do it, wouldn’t they have done it by now?

I say they run into another buzzsaw ... except this time, even better-armed


4 posted on 02/07/2023 12:45:35 PM PST by canuck_conservative (12th month, no end in sight)
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To: Chunga85

The NATO backed thingy is forcefully conscripting 16 year olds and 50+ as cannon fodder. Get your mind around that.


5 posted on 02/07/2023 1:02:41 PM PST by LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget (I am a lesbian trapped in a man's body... gives me more rights. )
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To: Mariner

6 posted on 02/07/2023 1:04:24 PM PST by tlozo (Better to Die on bour Feet than Live on Your Knees )
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To: Mariner

7 posted on 02/07/2023 1:10:19 PM PST by aMorePerfectUnion (Fraud vitiates everything. )
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To: Mariner

“Vladimir Putin is about to make shock gains”

Or shock losses. I guess we’ll see.


8 posted on 02/07/2023 1:13:26 PM PST by MeganC (There is nothing feminine about feminism. )
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To: canuck_conservative

It’s a shame Zelensky didn’t get those volunteers he needed.


9 posted on 02/07/2023 1:14:04 PM PST by JonPreston
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To: tlozo

get Ukraine mig 29’s asap!


10 posted on 02/07/2023 1:14:35 PM PST by Sunsong
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

😂


11 posted on 02/07/2023 1:14:41 PM PST by JonPreston
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To: LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget

You can see the videos on Telegram of people basically being kidnapped off the streets quite frequently now. It’s frightening.


12 posted on 02/07/2023 1:14:55 PM PST by Chunga85 (An arrogant govt combined with an ignorant population is a recipe for disaster.)
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To: Mariner

Shock? The war was supposed to be over in a week.


13 posted on 02/07/2023 1:25:08 PM PST by nickcarraway
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To: Chunga85

Nazis gonna Nazi. That simple. Klaus and George are behind this utter shitshow.

Nazis gotta Nazi.


14 posted on 02/07/2023 1:32:52 PM PST by LesbianThespianGymnasticMidget (I am a lesbian trapped in a man's body... gives me more rights. )
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To: Mariner
US approves $10B arms sale to Poland as Ukraine war rages on
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-politics-poland-8ab1d99a3fe10876198c53fa65e0d77e

15 posted on 02/07/2023 1:47:30 PM PST by familyop ("For they that sleep with dogs, shall rise with fleas" (John Webster, "The White Devil" 1612).)
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To: Mariner
Russia Asks Pink Floyd's [Gay] Roger Waters To Speak At UN On Arms Shipments To Ukraine
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-roger-waters-un-ukraine-arm-shipments/32260779.html

'I Couldn't Just Stand By': Russian Fighters Explain Why They Took Up Arms Against The Kremlin
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-war-free-russian-legion-fighters-against-kremlin/32260682.html

Germany, Denmark, Netherlands pledge Leopard tanks to Ukraine
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2023/02/07/germany-denmark-netherlands-pledge-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine/


16 posted on 02/07/2023 1:52:12 PM PST by familyop ("For they that sleep with dogs, shall rise with fleas" (John Webster, "The White Devil" 1612).)
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To: Mariner

500,000 drafted, equipped, trained, and prepared to go into the breach. In three months.

That’s some world class mobilization from a country where the soldiers steal toilets. I wonder who is going to lead these glorious troops into battle? They didn’t have an NCO corps to start with—now they have 20,000 training NCOs to put these guys through their induction?

I mean, the raping class in basic training would take months for them to complete.

I doubt they had a million extra boots laying around. Or uniforms. Not to mention, 500k more firearms? BMPs for these guys?

The Russian penchant for bluster is alive and well.


17 posted on 02/07/2023 1:57:05 PM PST by Vermont Lt
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To: Chunga85

You saw similar videos in the US in 1944 when someone didn’t show up fo induction. It happens in wars all over the place.

Not sure what your point is…aside from fake outrage.

Go back to watching Tik Tok.


18 posted on 02/07/2023 1:58:53 PM PST by Vermont Lt
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To: Vermont Lt

You’re going to cope yourself to death, and that’s fine with me. We’re talking about kids and elderly.


19 posted on 02/07/2023 2:03:24 PM PST by Chunga85 (An arrogant govt combined with an ignorant population is a recipe for disaster.)
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To: Mariner
I think all agree that Bakhmut is of little military importance. It does seem to be important for political and symbolic reasons to the Russians, like Wagner Group proving their worth over regular army units.

Since attackers generally incur many more casualties than defenders - especially in this sort of WW1 style fighting involving entrenched positions enduring massed artillery bombardments followed up by infantry charges to exploit and breaches in the lines - then I'm thinking maybe the plan is to reduce Russia's personnel at acceptable costs in these follow up attacks by putting up a fanatical defense in a tactically strong but strategically unimportant place.

This is what Zhukov did at both Khalkin Gol (1939 in Mongolia against the Japanese Army) and Stalingrad in 1942 - 1943. He drew the enemy into a battle of attrition in a place he could afford to lose using his lesser troops while building up masses of his better troops on the flanks and then when the enemy was weak in the center he launched his little surprise, enveloping them and destroying them utterly.

Stalingrad carried the name of Stalin and Hitler got his warped ego involved. He wanted to personally humiliate Stalin by taking his city. The Germans had already cut the Volga River traffic bringing Caspian Sea oil all the way to Moscow by placing artillery batteries on the banks of the Volga to the South. Stalingrad was a hand-to-hand street fight that gave the Soviets all the advantages. It nullified the Wehrmacht's huge advantage in air superiority and ground maneuverability by concentrating tanks and aircraft in a miles-long rubble heap.

Could the Russians be committing the same stupid, ego-driven mistake in Bakhmut?

20 posted on 02/07/2023 2:11:30 PM PST by Thilly Thailor
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