Well..We'll Meet Again
Posted on 01/30/2023 9:43:46 AM PST by Kazan
A European financial research company has sent me one of their quarterly research letters. It is a 'contrarian review of political and military ramifications' of the war in Ukraine. It analyzes 'winners and losers' of the war.
It is contrarian only in the sense that it counters the false views of 'western' mainstream media with reality. The losers of the war are all on the 'western' side with the only two winners being the owners of the U.S. defense industry and Russia.
I was sent the courtesy copy because, as the company writes, the discussions at Moon of Alabama were "immensely helpful" in forming their view.
Note to the authors: You are welcome.
I will not quote from the paper as it seems to be a somewhat confidential business product. But I will steal two graphics from it that will help to understand the size of the war in Ukraine and how it will NOT end.
There have been theories that Poland or some U.S. led coalition force would intervene with their troops on the ground in Ukraine to 'kick the Russians out'.
The two graphics though dispel any hope for such an operation.
The following is an operational map of Desert Storm. The U.S. led operation in spring 1991 to kick Iraq out of Kuwait. (at link)
It took the U.S. some nine month to assemble a forces of some 700,000 U.S. and 250,000 allied troops with all their equipment. Iraq had an estimated 650,000 troops in the theater. The U.S. first created total air superiority by destroying Iraq's fighter aircraft and air defense forces. With that done it took only 100 hours of ground operation to destroy a third of the Iraqi forces. The rest of the Iraqi army retreated under fire towards Baghdad.
There are some 550,000 Russian troops in and around Ukraine. A hypothetical operation to 'kick Russia out' would thereby have about the same size as Desert Storm. But the geographic dimensions differ drastically.
The following is an operational map of Desert Storm from above overlaid in scale on the map of Ukraine.(at link)
bigger The map was turned to the left by 90 degree. North is to the left, east at the top and Crimea in the south to the right.
Russia occupies some 87,000 square kilometer of Ukraine. The Desert Storm theater around Kuwait was five times smaller.
A hypothetical U.S. coalition of the size of Desert Storm could probably cross the Dnieper and cut of Crimea. But it could do little more than that. The Donetz and Luhansk oblasts and Crimea itself would still be in Russian hands.
But there are many reasons why no such operation will ever be planned and executed.
*The U.S. no longer has a force of the size it committed to Desert Storm. Nor do its allies.
*The U.S. was able to create air superiority in Iraq because it could fly from nearby Saudi airfields and from aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf. Air superiority in eastern Ukraine could only be achieved with the destruction of long range air-defenses within Russia. The next safe air fields the U.S. could use are in Poland and Romania. No U.S. aircraft carrier will dare to enter the Black Sea. U.S. fighter planes to not have the necessary reach for combat missions in eastern Ukraine.
*The Ukrainian rail system is by now a mess. It is incapable of moving a large force from the west into east Ukraine.
*Any attempt to move a large force through Ukraine would be subject to deep battle interdiction by Russian and Belorussian forces.
*Iraqi equipment was badly maintained and Iraqi forces were barely trained. Russia has a well trained high tech army.
I could go on but you can certainly see the point.
No U.S. ground troops will move into Ukraine. It is ludicrous to think otherwise.
We're wasting billions, thousands are dying and it has us closer to WWIII and nuclear war than we were during the Cold War.
It's time to do what Donald Trump has suggested and negotiate and end to all of this.
They’re putting on a good show and hoping they sucker Russian into a huge failed offensive in which Russian men and materiel are killed to the degree that Putin is ousted by his own men.
It might have happened in Feb when his paratroopers were killed in Kiev, but now he’s simply slowly grinding down Ukrainians. I really don’t see how this goes on past spring.
Ah - honesty! How refreshing!
U.S. Boots on the ground will be the death of us all.
“ Russia has a well trained high tech army.”
That line made me guffaw.
Wow - what a great link.
Well..We'll Meet Again
Have faith Neocons ! Your CIC Joe Poopy Pants Biden is doing the war dance !
Thanks for the laughs.
Most of the new troops Putin raised are manning secondary defense lines. They are poorly trained and equipped, most of all missing vehicles, which means they have almost no mobility. Cut through those lines and there's nothing they can do.
Russia is fighting a grinding war of artillery and infantry advances because it has no choice. Russian air defense is good, as is the Ukrainian, which is why Russia is unable to bring most of its air assets to bear. They can't fly high or they'll be shot down and if they fly low, their range is cut and they have fewer bases that are within range.
In any actual fight with NATO, Russian units would be pounded with precision standoff munitions until their air defense units are eliminated. Bridges and railways supplying Russian forces would be knocked out. The Black Sea fleet would be sunk by long range anti-ship missiles. The Ukrainians are holding off the Russians with a tiny fraction of the Western equipment the US and NATO would bring to bear.
But there are many reasons why no such operation will ever be planned and executed.
To NOT plan it would be foolish, to execute it even more so.
After Napoleon and Hitler - I would enjoy seeing BIDEN trying invade Russia.
Maximum clown show.
I laugh at how the author definitively states the U.S. will not commit troops to this war, when we have right now, the proverbial ‘Hold My Beer’ president running this crap show!
Don’t assume that after the West expended lots of ammunition, equipment and lives that Russia would not be really angry and not just sit within their boundaries twiddling their thumbs.
Time to cash out, Hunter. Ukraine is so yesterday. The party’s moving on to Poland or Taiwan. See you there!
The biggest laugh will come when Poland grabs a piece of Ukraine about as big as the Donbas…. For ‘safe keeping’ of course.
You sound like a child playing “Crusader Kings” video game
If your elves can grab the golden ring, and you will be upgraded with 100 more Knights Templar and will take the castle!
Its funny, except for the fact that people in DC engage in such fantasy games also, which is terrifying.
It took the U.S. some nine month to assemble a forces of some 700,000 U.S. and 250,000 allied troops with all their equipment.
Inaccurate. The Iraqis invaded on August 2nd, 1990. The ground invasion into Kuwait was Feb 24 1991. So it was really more like 6 1/2 months.
The rest of the concept is worthy.
Also, bear in mind, that was the US military at it’s pinnacle of cold war readiness. Today’s military is more techie, but it’s a bare shadow of the combat power of desert storm.
STOP the US/NATO war against the Orthodox world!!!! NO to WWIII!!!!
Also, the battlefield terrain there was basically a flat sand parking lot. Not a tree, not a sprig of grass...nothing.
That really helped the speed and lack of opportunities for lower grade but deadly resistance.
Last war with two battleships, M-60 tanks, Bob Hope, Phantom II’s, A-4s, and a masculine military.
And the M1 tank and skill of our crews was proven beyond a doubt. No Iranians in a speedboat would have -dared- try to capture a US navy patrol boat in that world.
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