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All is not well for Ukraine
Asia Times ^

Posted on 01/24/2023 5:38:40 AM PST by FarCenter

The delivery of tanks, advanced air defense systems and potentially long-range ground-launched bombs may be a response to Ukraine’s dire requests, but it also brings with it a new load of problems.

These hastily and urgently provided supplies indicate that all is not well in Kiev and that it is closer than ever to losing the war with Russia. These are not one-to-one replacements for equipment lost: Most of the delivered supplies aim to shift the fortunes of the war in favor of Ukraine.

At least one of the projected weapons, a 100-mile ground-launched long-range bomb known as ATACMS, also would shift the war from Ukrainian to Russian territory.

There is little doubt that putting this sort of weapon in Ukrainian hands will result in a bigger war in Europe. Russia will try to attack the transit centers for these supplies, most likely Poland, although retaliation could also conceivably include attacks on railroads and roadways in Germany.

The US decision to ship upgraded nuclear bombs to Europe also will convince the Russians that tactical nuclear war may be NATO’s response if Ukraine collapses. Compared with the US and NATO, Russia has a massive arsenal of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons.

Ukraine’s forces are falling back in the Donbas region and, if the retreat continues, will soon lose the strategic town of Bakhmut. The Russian wave, in the Pentagon’s view, is a sure thing and the US has asked Ukraine to abandon the area.

Ukrainian soldiers digging trenches in Bakhmut. Image: Screengrab / CNN However, Ukraine’s military and political leaders can’t pull back because doing so would open the center of the country to the Russian army. That, in turn, could light off a long-suppressed clamor for political change in Ukraine with unknown and unknowable consequences.

President Volodymyr Zelensky knows full well he has arrested most of his political opponents and silenced the media he dislikes, including some instances where his opponents have allegedly been liquidated by Ukraine’s secret police, the SBU.

But that won’t protect him or his colleagues if people in Kiev start to understand that Ukrainian defenses are folding.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 12thmonthnow; andsoitbegins; b61; escalation; reality; ww3; wwiii
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

this thread isn’t about Canada

don’t try to change the subject again


21 posted on 01/24/2023 7:23:15 AM PST by canuck_conservative
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To: SomeCallMeTim; CapandBall
Who is pushing all this?



(Borrowed from a post by CapandBall -- Thx.)
22 posted on 01/24/2023 7:26:50 AM PST by Nervous Tick (Truth is not hate speech.)
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To: JonPreston

“We are now entering the most dangerous phase of the war, as the Biden regime is also collapsing.”

**************

A very unique window of opportunity for China’s expansionist aspirations. Jus sayin.


23 posted on 01/24/2023 7:30:39 AM PST by Starboard
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To: JonPreston

>> We are now entering the most dangerous phase of the war, as the Biden regime is also collapsing. Buckle up.

We live in interesting times, don’t we?

Note to self: it’s time to buy those iodine tablets...


24 posted on 01/24/2023 7:31:14 AM PST by Nervous Tick (Truth is not hate speech.)
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To: Macoozie

+1. Your vision is clear.


25 posted on 01/24/2023 7:34:27 AM PST by Starboard
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To: Nervous Tick

agree and I already have them. Neocons have no breaks, and unless their system collapses completely, we’re in for trouble.


26 posted on 01/24/2023 7:36:29 AM PST by JonPreston
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To: canuck_conservative; aMorePerfectUnion
this thread isn’t about Canada

And it isn't about a Canadian claiming American citizens are Russian spies. We already went thru that with Democrats in Washington DC. We don't need it from you.

27 posted on 01/24/2023 7:40:02 AM PST by JonPreston
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To: Pete Dovgan
You can track losses via the ORYX website. Ukraine losses have been about 25% in equipment compared to Russian losses.

It's agreed by pretty much every source out there, including the gov't of Ukraine, that the Russians have at least an 8:1 advantage in artillery and equipment. With that in mind, do the losses reported by ORYX make any sense whatsoever?
28 posted on 01/24/2023 7:47:27 AM PST by Tacticalman
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To: FarCenter

...’a time of wars and the rumor of wars...

...’nuff said.


29 posted on 01/24/2023 7:49:50 AM PST by exPBRrat
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To: JonPreston

not spies, just apologists and propagandists

don’t like being accused of that?

then stop apologizing & propagandizing for Russia


30 posted on 01/24/2023 7:58:31 AM PST by canuck_conservative
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To: HighSierra5

The Tanks are too little too late—same with patriots and other tools of war. Many tanks will roll in the Moscow Victory Parade. to be taken apart—given to China, Iran, and other loyal nations to Putin. The edge they have will be lost. Germany knows this. They do not want to make Leopard IV Tanks. This is like The Spanish Civil war was to WW II. The Wagnar group will be marching in the victory parade in New Uniforms—all ex-cons pardoned. They will be cheered by the Russian People as heroes. Until they are needed to fight in Africa or South America. It will be a dark day for America.


31 posted on 01/24/2023 8:06:01 AM PST by Forward the Light Brigade ( Ride to the sound of the Guns!)
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To: Pete Dovgan

The deepstate media industrial complex told them ORYX is a propaganda site, and why would they lie?


32 posted on 01/24/2023 8:07:45 AM PST by yuleeyahoo (The nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master and deserves one. Hamilton)
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To: exPBRrat

[...’a time of wars and the rumor of wars...]

Indeed


33 posted on 01/24/2023 8:30:45 AM PST by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: canuck_conservative

—> this thread isn’t about Canada

I addressed YOU and the FACT YOU are from the Marxist nation of Canada.

And the FACT YOU never mention being a surrender monkey to the marxists.

Try not to change the subject.


34 posted on 01/24/2023 9:25:04 AM PST by aMorePerfectUnion (Fraud vitiates everything. )
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To: Tacticalman

It’s agreed by pretty much every source out there, including the gov’t of Ukraine, that the Russians have at least an 8:1 advantage in artillery and equipment. With that in mind, do the losses reported by ORYX make any sense whatsoever?

Not really. At an 8:1 advantage I would expect that to be overwhelming the defenders with resultant collapse. After the original ‘shock and awe’ Russia has for the most part lost ground. An 8:1 advantage should have prevented loosing all the gains from the beginning of the war. So no, it doesn’t make sense.

Put another way, for another possibility, if you have 4000 fighter aircraft and I have 500, you have an 8:1 advantage. However, if only 15-20% of your aircraft can fly on any day because of maintenance issues, you have only 600-800 available to go into combat. If I have 95% ratio, I have 475 to meet your 600. This does not give you overwhelming odds offensively, and you should expect 3:1 to 4:1 loss ration for offensive operations.

Russia has equipment, based upon eye witnesses, like junkyards have cars.


35 posted on 01/24/2023 9:53:08 AM PST by Pete Dovgan
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To: FarCenter

US set to upgrade its nukes in Germany
Naomi Conrad | Nina Werkhäuser
03/26/2020 March 26, 2020
The US has stored nuclear bombs across Europe as a deterrent against Russia — including in Germany, where parliament voted in 2010 to withdraw the bombs. But for now, they are here to stay — and set to be modernized.

Americans activate the nukes, Germans deliver them

In the case of a nuclear strike, the American soldiers who guard the bombs located on the German air base — with an order to shoot at any intruders — would attach the bomb to German fighter jets and activate the code. Then German crews would embark upon what insiders refer to as a “strike mission” — delivering the American bombs to their destination.


36 posted on 01/24/2023 10:03:13 AM PST by ansel12 (NATO warrior under Reagan, and RA under Nixon, bemoaning the pro-Russians from Vietnam to Ukraine.)
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To: ansel12

Trump is creating a nuclear threat worse than the cold war
Tue 23 Oct 2018 Simon Tisdall

In ditching the treaty with Russia, the US president risks an arms race with multiple nuclear powers

Whoa! There he goes again. Donald Trump’s impulsive decision to rubbish a landmark arms control treaty and develop a new generation of American nuclear weapons deals another devastating, dangerous blow to the rules-based global order.


37 posted on 01/24/2023 10:08:08 AM PST by ansel12 (NATO warrior under Reagan, and RA under Nixon, bemoaning the pro-Russians from Vietnam to Ukraine.)
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To: FarCenter

The war has devolved into a war of logistics. Commenting about one side’s need for logistics is not much better than guessing the number of sand grains on the beach.

Russia is calling up more troops so naturally Ukraine wants more weapons and ammo.


38 posted on 01/24/2023 10:46:46 AM PST by taxcontrol (The choice is clear - either live as a slave on your knees or die as a free citizen on your feet.)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion; canuck_conservative

canuck is cheerleading for the “correct” side in hopes his new marxist masters will favor him and his family.


39 posted on 01/24/2023 11:12:37 AM PST by citizen (Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people - John Adams 1798)
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To: Nervous Tick

Funny....but the globalists are not rooting for Russia.


40 posted on 01/24/2023 11:14:06 AM PST by citizen (Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people - John Adams 1798)
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