Posted on 01/06/2023 10:07:09 AM PST by ConservativeInPA
Nonfarm jobs rose by 223,000 and employment jumped but huge divergences continue for the 9th month.
Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report.
Initial Thoughts
The divergence between jobs and employment continues for the ninth month but lessened in December. However, the full time employment divergence did not budge. The divergences between jobs and employment date back to March. Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022
Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,887,000 Employment Level: +916,000 Full Time Employment: -288,000 Full time employment is down 288,000 since March and down by 444,000 since May!
Mainstream media misses general miss the big picture captured in my lead chart. This is not strong employment growth.
The internal details have been weak for 9 month and I have been talking about the discrepancy for six of them. The charge of employment "noise" is a siren song.
Job Report Details
Nonfarm Payroll: +223,000 to 153,743 - Establishment Survey Civilian Non-institutional Population: +136,000 to 264,844,000 Civilian Labor Force: +439,000 to 164,964,000 - Household Survey Participation Rate: +0.1 to 62.3% - Household Survey Employment: +717,000 to 159,244- Household Survey Unemployment: -278,000 to 5,722,000- Household Survey Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 to 3.5% - Household Survey Not in Labor Force: -303,000 to 99,878,000 - Household Survey U-6 unemployment: -0.2 to 6.5% - Household Survey Revision Details
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 21,000, from +284,000 to +263,000. The change for November was revised down by 7,000, from +263,000 to +256,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were 28,000 lower than previously reported.
(Excerpt) Read more at mishtalk.com ...
People are working a second job to keep the lights, heat and water on. Simple as that.
Just get 2 part-time jobs. Hate to put it that way but employers are discouraged from hiring full-time employees. It’s the government mandates and taxes.
“Hey, I put together some numbers for the monthly report. What do you think of these?”
“Hmmmmmmmmm. Make this one bigger. And that one smaller. That one too.”
“You got it Chief.”
The Biden administration will tout these-part time jobs to say that his policies are working. Bwahahahahaha
“People are working a second job to keep the lights, heat and water on. Simple as that.”
Some are, yes. Others are doing it to get ahead like I did 40, 30, and 20 years ago. I’ve always had side hustles. Today, 13 years into retirement, my side hustles are stock/bond and real estate investing. That’s for my heirs as we old folks are fine.
Right, and these poor employers hire millions of illegal aliens because of high taxes...Gak~!
Probably the worst conspiracy theory in the world (besides what did QAnon just say?) is this one: “The BLS is lying about the jobs report”
The one million overstatement comes from this
Sounds great right? Ominous!!!
Here’s the problem w the Philly Fed jobs report. The methodology is brand new. An infant of surveys.
Look at ADP. much longer track record. Yet almost always wrong as a predictor of the USA jobs report. ADP economists are dolts.
Here’s reality. The economy is still pretty strong. 223K jobs look good
Clear signs of cooling, though. That’s a hopeful sign. The economy is slowing.
If you want the deck stacked in favor of the Republican nominee, you want a lousy economy in 2024.
You want it to start to weaken in 2023. And you want outright job losses in 2024.
That’s the time frame for which I hope
A more meaning full metric would be part-time jobs that people have to take to deal with inflation when their full time job used to make ends meet. By the way, the scumbags at BLS double count. One person with two jobs counts as two jobs.
“You want it to start to weaken in 2023. And you want outright job losses in 2024.
That’s the time frame for which I hope”
I’m watching and I agree with the take that this situation looks a lot like 1969. I’m guessing job loss will be noticed July-ish and of course continue into 2024. Overall, it looks like a rather short garden-variety recession.
But that pre-supposes no Black Swans in the meantime.
I had a full time job working 45-49 hours each week, and I did consulting job on the side working 15 hours on the side. It was not because I needed the funds, it was to double my monthly savings with only 1 job, and the magic of compounding interest did the rest.
You go ahead and trust government then. Explain the differences between November and December manufacturing jobs in the ADP and BLS reports. ADP had a loss of 104k manufacturing jobs, while BLS had a gain. The ISM report backs up the ADP numbers. There are very few things government does well. Most government employees are low-IQ’d, indoctrinated, not educated, pieces of excrement. They are the deep state and have to resort to lying to push their agendas.
ADP had a loss of 104k manufacturing jobs, while BLS had a gain.
**************
I’m suspicious of the ADP job loss numbers.
I’m a manufacturer with connections to other manufacturers and none of us are laying off employees.
Demand is ‘through the roof’ currently.
“I had a full time job working 45-49 hours each week, and I did consulting job on the side working 15 hours on the side. It was not because I needed the funds, it was to double my monthly savings with only 1 job, and the magic of compounding interest did the rest.”
And that’s how you build a better future, good for you!
Trust has nothing to do with it. It just one input to consider among many, and if you have a more accurate number, please post it every month.
The numbers come from private sector reporting, and the big boys and bankers keep track before it ever gets to the govt. and regurgitated with their “adjustments”. If it gets out of whack they squawk, so there is unofficial oversight on the situation.
I wonder how many of these will be seasonal and get laid off in the coming month?
Correct sir, and this over-amped, above-full-employment situation is forcing the FED’s hand. The ridiculous energy situation is the other problem. It undoes some of what the Fed is doing.
If we hadn’t closed the spigots on investment and production of energy our economy and incomes would be in much better condition, as you know. That mistake will be costly for at least a decade, and if that policy doesn’t change things will get very ugly in future.
I can tell by your comments you have no idea here.
Thousands of employers hire millions of illegals. They can get bogus ID, work under the table, and have been doing so for many decades. Entire companies out there have crews where none of them speak English and why they hire illegals who are bilingual for supervisors.
Or are you suggesting there are not millions working in this country who are here illegally?
I can tell, you've never been in the LA area.
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