Russia’s army is so ineffective it will probably not be able to take much territory in Ukraine for ‘the next several months’, UK intel says

MSN ^ | 12-12 | sbaker@businessinsider

[dennisw]

NATO's head said earlier this month that Russia may want the fighting to slow, seeking a "freeze" in the fighting so it can better prepare for a bigger assault next year.

"What we see now is Russia is actually trying to have some kind of 'freeze' of this war at least for a short period of time so they can regroup, repair, recover," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.

"And then try to launch a bigger offensive next spring."

The UK Ministry of Defence predicted on Monday that Russian forces will not see any big gains over the winter, even as Ukraine said its own attacks would ramp up as the ground freezes.

The British defense ministry said in an intelligence update on Monday that "Russian ground forces are unlikely to make operationally significant advances within the next several months."

It added that Russia is likely still aiming to extend control over all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, with Russian military planners likely aiming to prioritise advancing deeper into Donetsk Oblast.

However, "Russia's strategy is currently unlikely to achieve its objectives: it is highly unlikely that the Russian military is currently able to generate an effective striking force capable of retaking these areas," it said.

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Sunday that the weather turning freezing would make Ukraine's operations easier by hardening the ground.

He said Ukraine's army will resume "active counteroffensive actions" when the ground freezes and "becomes firmer for easier passage of equipment," CNN reported.

"The weather conditions, the transition from a dry autumn to a not-yet-freezing winter ... we encountered rain and very difficult conditions for attacks from either side."

"Therefore, we are taking advantage of the moment when the ground becomes firmer," Reznikov said, according to CNN.

[dennisw]

You have to go to sites like Moon of Alabama to get intelligent conversation.

[Renfrew]

“You really should take the time to listen to the conversation between Colonel Douglas Macgregor and Dr. Michael Vlahos.”

I will, if you can convince me that Doug has an IQ above 20.

If you can show me one article from the early days of the war that he wrote which is not embarrassingly wrong I will watch.

Here is where you can find them:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/author/doug-mac/

Any one from Feb through Apr where he correctly calls how the war will unfold. And doesn’t have laugh lines like:

“Will NATO survive its ignominious retreat in the face of superior Russian military power?”

[familyop]

"Russia’s army is so ineffective it will probably not be able to take much territory in Ukraine for ‘the next several months’, UK intel says"

Before the other end of winter, I have only the following to say about that. There's a widely held assumption among civilians, that Russia is well prepared for winter warfare. It's not.

[WMarshal]

You comment like a safe space leftists. Call the whambulance.

[dennisw]

You have to go to sites like Moon of Alabama to get intelligent conversation.

[dennisw]

Putin’s ego is hyper invested in Crimea. It will be difficult to defeat the Russians there. Though Crimea needs fresh water from the mainland and this could be shutoff. Crimea is arid, believe it or not.
________

Crimea is an arid peninsula with insufficient rainfall to meet the needs of its 2 million people. In 1971, the Soviet Union built the 70-mile-long North Crimea Canal to bring water south from Nova Kakhovka on the Dnipr river. The canal, which continues for another 170 miles to the eastern tip of Crimea, met 70-85 percent of the peninsula’s water needs, with most of the water being used for agriculture.

After the Russian annexation in 2014, Ukraine dammed the canal ten miles north of the Crimean border. Since then, Crimea has been drawing water from the aquifer, which is now running dry and becoming polluted. Climate change has brought decreased rainfall and higher temperatures to the region, exacerbating the water deficit.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/10/18/why-crimea-is-the-key-to-the-ukraine-war/

[MinorityRepublican]

There's a widely held assumption among civilians, that Russia is well prepared for winter warfare. It's not.

This isn't the same Soviet Army that conquered Eastern Europe at the end of World War II.

[Navy Patriot]

It is hopeless trying to induce an intelligent discussion on FR these days.

Now you're catching on.

[PIF]

What happens after ‘the next several months’?

—
The winter ice will melt and people will be busy digging out masses of frozen mobnicks