Posted on 11/26/2022 3:50:35 AM PST by FarCenter
Economic consequences of the invasion
After losing a relatively modest 4% of GDP to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the Ukrainian economy grew at a healthy 3.2% in 2021 and was expected to grow at the same pace in 2022. The sudden Russian invasion upset this forecast. The initial stage of the invasion hit the capital Kiev and ten regions, which jointly account for 55% of pre-war GDP.
Ukraine’s GDP shrank by 15.1% in the first quarter of 2022 – the year-on-year decline recorded in March 2022 was a massive 45%. In the second quarter, GDP fell by a staggering 37.2%.
Today, the fighting continues in the regions that account for less than 15% of pre-war GDP. But even so, the World Bank estimates that the Ukrainian economy will shrink by one-third in 2022, a far higher number than the typical threshold of 15% that economists use to start referring to a severe economic recession as an economic disaster.
Bar chart showing effect war on Ukraine's economy. Ukraine’s economy was recovering, until Russia invaded. State Statistics Service of Ukraine What makes the economic consequences of the war even more dramatic is that the aggregate numbers above have unequal distribution across the country and socioeconomic groups. One way to illustrate this is to look at the extreme poverty rate, defined here as living on less than US$5.5 per person per day.
Before the war, only 2.5% of Ukrainians lived in extreme poverty, similar to Italy and Spain. The war abruptly changed this. The World Bank estimates that the number of Ukrainians in extreme poverty will likely increase tenfold in 2022 and will continue to grow in 2023. The poverty rates will be higher still in the regions closer to the front line, due to shortages.
This will accelerate the inflation rate and erode purchasing power. Government support for the low and middle-income parts of the population is crucial in this situation.
Oh well. Maybe Ukraine should have not been such a Kleptocracy.
Agreed. I hope I’m still alive when the whole truth emerges.
Oh baloney. As long as Uncle Sugar is paying the bills, Ukraine's got nothing to worry about...
"Ukraine gets $4.5 billion grant from US to cover budget deficit"
Yes. The Ukrainian govternment is hardly an innocent victim here. The majority of the Ukrainian citizenry are far more so.
Right, and Poland's economy in WW2 was awful too, after nazi and russian invasions.
November 24 marks nine months since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Despite the expectation of the Kremlin – and many international analysts – Ukraine did not fall within days.
It repelled Russia’s advance on the capital Kiev, turned the tide on the battlefields and has now retaken half of the territory captured in Russia’s initial push. Ukraine’s military now has initiative and momentum on the battlefield.
But the human cost of this resistance has been enormous. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have lost their lives. The recent UN Human Rights report confirmed the death of 6,595 civilians and warned that there are many more likely to come. One-third of the 44 million population has been displaced: 6.5 million within Ukraine and almost 8 million as refugees in other European countries.
Having failed to complete its mission on the battlefield, Russian forces have resorted to hitting the civilian population with missiles and drone attacks. These have resulted in many civilian casualties and severe damage to critical infrastructure.
The blockade of Black Sea ports is preventing vital exports and starving the Ukrainian economy of the foreign currency it needs to buy critical imports. This, and the fact that the government has been forced to divert public money for military use, has put tremendous pressure on the economy.
I was guest lecturer at a university in Moscow in the mid 90s. There were a lot of kids from the Ukraine there at the time. They were good kids. I hope they’re doing ok.
The Ukrainian people need regime change. Enter Putin.
American war criminals supporting Vladimer Putin still function on Free Republic
Hush, Biden puppet.
Once again, your ignorance is displayed for all the world to see
Maybe it’s time to stop this war.
I watched a network news program yesterday. Not something I normally do, and it was a shock to see what the general public are being told. Everything was ‘the brave Ukrainians’ and the ‘evil Russians.’
There will be no peace. There CAN’T be any peace under these conditions. The collective west has been feeding their citizens such a diet of hate for nine months that peace will not be acceptable, under anything less than surrender.
I predict there will be peace, but will be months coming and it will be on Russian terms. Both parties in this fight are resolute, but only one party is being destroyed.
Ukrainians understand that if they stop fighting, there will be no Ukraine.
Russian propogandists admit their goal is regime change in Kyiv, even when Kremlin denies it.
piggy
Russia is getting destroyed too
they’re losing $10 billion every week from lost gas sales
since they cut off the gas on Sept. 1st, it’s been almost 12 weeks, so Russia has already lost $120 billion in revenues ... that’s a lot
PLUS the losses will double starting next week, when Europe cuts off Russian oil imports
PLUS those million + Russian workers that fled their country, rather than get conscripted, are ruining the economy
Russia is in a world of hurt ... that why their shills are now screaming for some kind of “peace deal” immediately
Estimates have been placed at roughly 4-8 billion A MONTH for the Ukrainian Kyiv Regime to function, etc.
“American war criminals supporting Vladimer Putin still function on Free Republic”
They also fight for and with the DPR and LPR militia, etc. in the Novorossiya Donbass regions.
“The businessman added that they are fighting in a British battalion as part of the Wagner PMC, the commander of which is a US citizen , an ex-general of the Marine Corps.”
‘Prigozhin spoke about the ex-US general fighting in the Wagner PMC’
https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2022/11/25/19122379.shtml
‘Russell “Texas” Bentley Sweet Home Novorossiya English Version’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkxSxUb5BHE
No worries… our grandchildren can pay for corrupt ukraine
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