DELUSION IN FLORIDA

Powerline ^ | October 19,2022 | BY JOHN HINDERAKER

[Hojczyk]

I saw an interview with Robert Cahaly, who runs the Trafalgar polling operation, the other day. (It may have been off a Power Line link.) As I recall, he said that he isn’t polling in Florida because he doesn’t think there are any serious races there.

I agree. For a time, Democrats believed, or pretended to believe, that retread party-switcher Charlie Crist could seriously challenge Ron DeSantis. In my opinion, that was delusional, and the Dems’ hopes seem to have faded. Here are two data points to support the proposition that anyone running against DeSantis in 2022 has no chance.

First, DeSantis and his family took the stage at a Lynyrd Skynyrd concert. The band members are fans, and even released a pro-DeSantis record. And the crowd is predictably friendly. But the enthusiasm of DeSantis’s welcome is notable, and the “USA” cheers reflect the crowd’s understanding of who is on America’s side, and who is not.

[SamAdams76]

If a sitting governor can win over a Lynyrd Skynyrd crowd in Florida, his re-election is all but assured.

[Scarlett156]

To all those who harshly criticize me for saying anything negative about Governor Ron: I think he’s a great guy. But I don’t live in FL and I don’t plan on even visiting again, much less living there. I am not against him and I don’t think he’s a crook. He’s awesome - for Florida.

[janetjanet998]

Looks like a red blowout if mail ins continue like this

Returned Mail Ballots by Party Registration

Party Returned Freq. Requested Return Rate
Democrat 349,886 41.8 1,846,629 18.9
Republican 321,909 38.4 1,388,064 23.2
None/Minor 166,153 19.8 980,343 16.9
TOTAL 837,948 100.0 4,215,036 19.9

[adorno]

But, polling...

Polling has Crist no so far behind...

So, it must be the fake polls that people talk about all time, hoping that people believe them and won’t be scared away from voting for Crist.

Same with the the race for U.S senator, with Val Jennings vs Mario Rubio. The Jennings crowd believes they have a chance.

Most people I know and talk to, know the democrats have no chance in Florida.

[TallahasseeConservative]

DeSantis will beat Crist by double digits. Rubio will beat Demings handily. After election day, the Democrats will have no statewide office holders here. Right now, they only have one and that’s the AG Commissioner Nikki Fried, but she’s out. For the first time in history, Republicans have the edge in voter registration by almost 200,000 voters. Republicans control the State House. Florida is no longer a “toss up” state. We’re solid Red now.

[KC_Conspirator]

I like listening to Cahaly. He is one of the pollsters that says that Trafalgar is "trying to get the poll numbers right". So many are push polling and faking results to support dim candidates and have been off by miles. So much so that even RCP is doing a calculation this year of the dimocrat bias in polls of the last 3 elections; I give them a pinch of credit for even looking into it.

One of the worst outfits in 2020 was the Cook Political Report. Its house projections were something like 25 seats off; whereas they projected dims gains, pubs gained seats. I was witness to it last election; had someone very close to the family win the dim primary in a race. Cook lied to them that they were neck and neck, they pumped personal money into it, and then were crushed, just crushed.

And I smiled because the candidate is a complete sociopath. Bullet dodged.

[Rockingham]

Good polls are expensive because of: high nonresponse rates; the diffiulty of getting a random but demographically balanced and properly sized sample; the potential for shifts in political sentiment; and the uncertainty of who will show up to vote. As it happens, almost all publicly reported polls are unreliable.

[FLT-bird]

My native Florida is - thank god - trending back red.

An influx of Leftists from New Yaaaaak and Joissssey flooded into Greater Miami and tried to turn the state blue. They came close to succeeding. North and Central Florida and the Panhandle barely held them off.

But

The Democrats went too far and the younger generation of Cubans who had actually bought into the Obama media hype saw that everything their elders told them about how the socialists subvert a society, bring violence and oppression, etc was true. They have swung back and swung back hard to the Republican camp. They’ve been joined by Venezuelans who have seen it too.

Those two groups (in addition to Southerners in the rest of the state) have been furthermore augmented by much more conservative Midwesterners and Leftugees fleeing the Northeast and coming into South Florida....places like Naples, Orlando, the Villages, etc etc.

I don’t think Florida is going to be competitive again for at least a generation. Which is a damn good thing because if we had lost Florida, we would have lost the country. We can’t win if we lose 3 of the 4 biggest states.