Posted on 10/14/2022 9:29:26 PM PDT by Steely Tom
New York Governor Kathy Hochul leads Republican challenger Lee Zeldin by 10 percentage points according to a new Marist College poll.
Hochul, a Democrat, is seeking a full four-year term after taking over when Andrew Cuomo resigned in August 2021.
She has held the edge in polling and fundraising against Long Island Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin throughout the race, and with Election Day less than a month away, the Marist poll shows that dynamic hasn’t changed.
The poll finds 51 percent of registered voters backing Hochul, with Zeldin at 41 percent. Among voters who say they will definitely vote, Hochul is ahead 52-to-44.
“This is not an incumbent in a horrible election year, at least for Democrats in New York. And so in a sense, the registration advantage is certainly keeping her stabilized in terms of her standing in the head-to-head,” Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said. “But as I indicated, there's a lot of folks who haven't framed an opinion yet on Congressman Zeldin, and that can shake things up a little at the margins, and then we could get this even closer than it is right now. But right now, it's a high single digit affair.”
Jay DeDapper is the Marist Poll’s director of strategy and innovation. He says efforts to draw parallels to the 1994 race when Republican George Pataki upset third-term Democrat Mario Cuomo are likely missing the mark.
“Not entirely the true story here because Pataki didn’t so much come from behind in October in our polls in October of 1994. Among leaners, and likely voters, we combine them. He was ahead by one and he ended up winning. And we have that in the final poll that he was up by one and other polls did too, that Pataki had a real shot here and in fact was ahead in October. We are not seeing that,” he said.
DeDapper says it might also be a mistake to focus on last year’s result in neighboring New Jersey.
“Number two, people are talking about well, New Jersey, people missed New Jersey, you know, Phil Murphy barely won in New Jersey. Well, he won by 3 with 52% of the vote,” he said. “And the final poll there that Monmouth did have him, yes it was a 10-point race, but they had him at 52. And that's the number to come back to I think and look here. Kathy Hochul’s at 52 when we look at voters who say they are definitely going to vote.”
Zeldin’s campaign says in a statement the race is “much closer than even this new Marist poll. We’ve consistently been gaining ground on Hochul,” adding “Losing is not an option!”
Hochul’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
In the survey conducted from October 3rd through 6th, 28 percent of voters said inflation is their top issue in the election, with 24 percent saying it’s preserving democracy. 18 percent said crime and 14 percent said abortion. 48 percent of respondents approve of President Joe Biden’s job performance, while 49 percent do not.
In New York’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer leads Republican Joe Pinion 54 percent to 34 percent.
Miringoff says Schumer is looking good for a fifth term.
“There's not, I think, any surprise there. He looks very strong,” he said. “Not only does he have a positive approval rating as Senator, but also 65% said they don't know enough about his challenger Pinion, to have an opinion one way or the other or they never heard of him. So right now you have an incumbent, you know, doing well, has a good margin. And there should not be much more news, unless anything dramatic occurs, between now and Election Day in that contest.”
A majority of registered voters, 54 percent, back the Democratic candidate in their Congressional district, with 38 percent backing the Republican.
Polls are nothing but propaganda. Ignore them.
I agree with you,it will depend on who counts the votes.
Are the still Q threads? Only on my phone for the moment.
The Marist College poll surely is. It is a bought and paid for dem disinformation product. If these hacks are seeing a ‘slight tightening’ in the governor’s race the dems must be really worried and the steal has to be big.
The urban citadels of fraud will ensure Lee loses.
NY is now a major mail in ballot fraud state(Proven in 2020 election). Even after the people voted no to mail in ballots for everyone this governor said FU and made sure she would have those ballots to cheat in this election. But those who see her evil should all vote and hope they can beat the cheat.
Kathy Hochul will probably win but she can lose. Larry Hogan won in Maryland.
In 2014, Marist overestimated Cuomo’s margin among likely voters by 12 points.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/marist-college/
Given how unsettled the crime and inflation situation are, Marist’s margins of error among LV’s may have blown out in NY state by way over 12 points. Marist is showing a Hochul win by 8 points among likely voters. It would not surprise me if Zeldin won by way over 4 points. A 10-point Zeldin win would crush downticket Democrats.
you would think she would be ahead by 30%...Twice as many Dems as Repubs..
RE: New York Governor Kathy Hochul leads Republican challenger Lee Zeldin by 10 percentage points according to a new Marist College poll.
That’s not even a tightening as the title of this article implies. That’s beyond the margin of error and indicates a blowout.
New Yorkers deserve everything they vote for including a declining state
>> Polls are nothing but propaganda. Ignore them.<<
It’s hard to dispute that the way Marist is rushing to assure people that Hochul is undefeatable. It’s one thing to defend the accuracy of 1994 polling, but Jay sounds like he’s Hochul’s campaign manager.
And for what it’s worth, yes, it’s true that some polls showed Pataki pulling into the lead by October 31... but as of October 7, Pataki was down by 10, 13, 14, 14 points in the mainstream media polls. Pataki not only won, but he won by more than three percent.
If NYers elect Hochul, my guess is that they probably will, they will deserve what they get.
Democrats and their ilk have lots and lots of money. Lots of it. But the amount is not infinite.
When we make them spend money defending against races they once thought were a shoe in that reduces the amount of money they have to spend elsewhere.
James is losing to the Republican and will damage all rodents
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