Posted on 10/13/2022 7:03:08 AM PDT by Salohcin
One of the by-products of the Ukraine war has been the emergence of the online “Z-Universe," an enormous network of websites and social media accounts named after a popular pro-war symbol. It is most active on Telegram, which, unlike Twitter and Facebook, is not banned in Russia. All its participants spread pro-Kremlin and anti-Ukrainian propaganda, publishing information that may or may not be true, but which legitimizes the war and the killing of Ukrainians.
The Z-Universe seems chaotic, but it is actually very complex — and hierarchical. At the top are politicians and Kremlin officials, such as former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. On the next level are governors and warlords, such as the head of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin, or the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov. Below them are the heads of the state media outlets and talk-show hosts. Even lower still is the layer of "analysts" and war correspondents. At the very bottom is an army of trolls. Their Telegram channels have tens of thousands of subscribers, but most of them are bots.
In the first days of September, during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, the Z-Universe went into a state of shock. Not so long ago, in the virtual world, the Russian army was the "second best army in the world" and could take any European capital if it tried hard enough. But, suddenly, the Russian army couldn’t even hold some mid-sized Ukrainian towns.
The first reaction was denial. On Sept. 9, when the Russian army was fleeing the town of Izyum, war correspondent Alexander Kots was still doing what he had been doing throughout the war: providing disinformation. He happily published videos of paratroopers landing from helicopters and promised everyone that Izyum would never fall. Three days later, Kots was writing from another location dozens of kilometers from Izyum.
"Balakleya, Kupyansk, and Izyum have surrendered. We are withdrawing from most of the Kharkiv region. This is a military disaster," wrote the Zastavny Telegram channel. "I cannot explain what is happening now on the Izyum front. But there is only one option: tomorrow all those responsible for the failure of the front will be arrested for high treason," wrote Telegram channel Zhivov.
The blast on the Crimean Bridge further lowered the morale of the Z-Universe: "It is no longer clear who is leading the special operation: is it still Russia or is it already Ukraine?" wrote one channel.
After that, it was time for a reckoning. Kadyrov accused the commander of the Russian Armed Forces in eastern Ukraine, Alexander Lapin, of incompetence and the chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, of nepotism. Kadyrov wrote: "Lapin is useless.... If it were up to me, I would demote Lapin to private, strip him of his medals and send him to the front to wash away his shame with a machine gun."
Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of mercenary group Wagner, echoed Kadyrov: "All these bastards ought to be sent to the front barefoot with just a submachine gun.”
Such trenchant public criticism of government officials is highly unusual in today's Russia. However, it’s worth remembering that none of these people are expressing their personal opinions. They all have a patron at the top of the Kremlin hierarchy. The patron of both Kadyrov and Prigozhin is widely considered to be the head of the Russian National Guard, Viktor Zolotov.
Zolotov has apparently decided to use the army's failures to weaken the position of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who had been pegged to be Putin's successor before the war.
Unexpectedly, it appears some Kremlin officials also joined the attack on Shoigu. The rumor is that anonymous Telegram channel Nezygar expresses the views of the presidential administration. "The direct clients and mediators of the process who are in Washington and London have managed to drag Russia into a full-scale direct military conflict with Ukraine and an indirect one with the NATO bloc," Nezygar wrote recently.
All these maneuvers were successful. General Lapin remained in his post, but General Sergei Surovikin was appointed over his head to command all the military operations in Ukraine. Kadyrov was promoted to colonel general, equal in rank to Lapin.
Enter Igor Strelkov, a retired FSB colonel and l'enfant terrible of the Z-Universe. In 2014, Strelkov led rebel gunmen to seize power in Donetsk, then became the defense minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic, fought without much success and was replaced by regular Russian army officers.
Since then, Strelkov has constantly criticized Russia’s military commanders. From the first day of the war, he has been calling for a general mobilization, “information mobilization“— that is, patriotic hysteria — and subserving the economy to the needs of the military. He has called the Russian military command “idiots” and dubbed Shoigu a "Cardboard Marshal." It’s believed Strelkov is a spokesman for the FSB leadership and nationalist army officers.
None of the siloviki — the Defense Ministry, the FSB, the Russian National Guard — have their eye on the Kremlin throne for themselves. They are competing for influence over Putin. However, as journalist Yulia Latynina has pointed out, "the battle being fought is for Shoigu's position, not for Putin's throne. But whoever becomes Shoigu's successor will also become Putin's successor.”
Of course, it is difficult to fully understand what is going on in and around the Kremlin, even by analyzing the signals from the Z-Universe. What is clear, however, is that military failures have fueled a power struggle.
All this points to what historian Timothy Snyder considers the most likely end to the war. Though events are unlikely to lead to civil war and armed clashes inside Russia, the logic of a serious power struggle will force major players to pull as many combat-ready units out of Ukraine as possible and bring them closer to home.
In Kadyrov's case, this is Chechnya; while the other clans will need to bring their armies closer to Moscow. After that, the war will end on its own.
As Snyder points out: "This, of course, would be a very good thing, for Ukraine and for the world.”
Victor Davidoff is a Soviet dissident and independent journalist, author of "The Ninth Circle" (Moscow, 2021), a study of the abuse of psychiatry for political purposes in the USSR.
Yes
“Wow, what a remarkable insight.”
Yes too bad many here can understand that.
cant
Reports say Ukraine shot down about half of the missiles launched by Russia.
Reports also say western countries will supply Ukraine with many more anti- missiles to further reduce the Russian success rate.
dubbed Shoigu a “Cardboard Marshal.
—
After the cardboard commemorative medals he wears on his uniform.
Money, money, money......... why do you equate war and national security to war?
We are America! We are not a nation of neo-isolationists who hide under their rocks.
—”In China, you people are called “wu mao’s” - 50 centers. You get paid 50 cents per post,”
You may want to recalculate your BS because it smells bad.
The HIGH minimum wage in Shanghai China $350.00 per month. Much less in other areas.
Guessing that you exceed the monthly minimum rate just with your FR posts.
—”Nothing about Russia or Ukraine or the middle east or China is as important as drill baby drill. Get the drill baby drill working first. Energy is always the main ingredient in foreign policy.”
Hear! Hear!
Americans are rightly reluctant as h*ll to get into wars, especially if we are not directly attacked.
By "we" is meant these days also our formal allies and our vital interests.
The Great Debate is whether Ukraine qualifies as part of "we", and people of good will can argue either case.
My argument is that madman Putin has shown himself to be Hitlerian in his aggressions toward neighboring countries, and the lessons of WWII apply just as well today as they did then -- if a madman is not stopped sooner, then he will come back again and again for ever bigger conquests.
As of today it appears that Ukraine needs only western weapons to defeat a poorly organized, lead, motivated and supplied Russian conscript army.
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for October 13, 2022
- UN General Assembly vote demonstrates continued support for Russia by India and China as well as many other nations across the developing and newly industrialized world;
- Russia continues missile and drone strikes across Ukraine; - Ukraine’s plea for air defense systems is impractical and reflect desperation in Kiev;
- West is attempting to mix and match air defense systems to create an ad hoc integrated network;
- Many air defense components will take a year or longer to arrive in Ukraine;
- Many air defense components will be damaged or destroyed before the imagined integrated network is complete;
- A turning point is coming where the West will have to decide between escalating or abandoning its proxy war in Ukraine;
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for October 13, 2022
- UN General Assembly vote demonstrates continued support for Russia by India and China as well as many other nations across the developing and newly industrialized world;
- Russia continues missile and drone strikes across Ukraine; - Ukraine’s plea for air defense systems is impractical and reflect desperation in Kiev;
- West is attempting to mix and match air defense systems to create an ad hoc integrated network;
- Many air defense components will take a year or longer to arrive in Ukraine;
- Many air defense components will be damaged or destroyed before the imagined integrated network is complete;
- A turning point is coming where the West will have to decide between escalating or abandoning its proxy war in Ukraine;
India and China didn’t support Russia, they both abstained from the vote. The idea that abstaining shows support is ludicrous. 🙄
India and China didn’t support Russia, they both abstained from the vote. The idea that abstaining shows support is ludicrous. 🙄
Nobody knows what may or may not be "impractical".
Time will tell.
As for "desperation", Kiev's situation has been more or less desperate since Day One, and yet they persevere despite everything.
The Russian conscript army seems in worse shape.
Time will tell who is more determined.
As of today, it looks like Ukrainians are more determined to be free than average Russians are to rule over them.
Bkmk
Under the principle flak means you are over the target, double spamming means this thread is important enough to disrupt more than usual. Bookmarked.
You are unjustifiably fearful that we have jumped into a war with Russia.
The evidence on the Ukraine battlefield is that Russia is being whipped by Ukraine. Russia lacks the ability and wherewithal to enlarge the effort to attack America
“Do not take counsel of your fears” General George Patton
I'm concerned, not "fearful" -- I served in Germany, near the Fulda Gap, while Vlad Putin was still a student at Leningrad State University.
We knew then the old Soviets were dangerous and capable of massive invasions.
As of today, I don't think we really know what the Russians are capable of, long term.
I do think Putin still believes he can outlast our Western Democracies' resolve to defeat him.
He thinks we are weak, fickle and more devoted to global warming, LGBTQWXYZ123 and grooming children for "trans rights" than we are to standing strong against Russian imperial ambitions.
And he might be right.
For certain, the moment Republicans take control over Congress, Democrats will go into insane-opposition mode, and may well abandon all pretense to supporting Ukrainian independence.
If AOC Democrats join with Tulsy Gabbard Independents and Rand Paul/Jim Jordan Republicans in opposing aid, serious harm to Ukraine could result.
On the other hand, I don't think madman Putin will use Nukes, or attack NATO countries and I do think Europe will somehow survive the winter without Putin's natural gas.
So Ukrainians will have a fighting chance to win.
A key will be to learn how Putin's latest round of mobilizations works out for him.
If it's as disastrous as now seems, then Russia will be reduced to the status of North Korea as a menacing client state of Communist China. 
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